Poll of polls: Labour 33%, Con 32%, UKIP 16%, LD 8%, Green 6%

My first ever poll of polls (An average from all of the opinion polls taken this week) shows a 1% lead for the Labour Party. Figures varied from a 7% Labour lead in Populus, and in the 11th October YouGov poll a 5% Labour lead, to the Tories leading in several polls at the beginning of the week. This 1 point lead would theoretically, be enough on a uniform swing to see Ed Miliband into number 10 in May, but it would be the worst ever share of the vote for an incoming Government.

Something else that I also tried to do was to extrapolate YouGov's regional figures over the week, by combining the sample sizes from all of the polls released this week by YouGov-giving a total sample size of about 1000 for each region. For the Midlands and Wales, this is impossible as the two are combined by YouGov, but it is possible, and very interesting, to look at the regional extrapolations for the South, North, Scotland and London. Here are the regional extrapolation figures:

London: Labour 44%, Conservatives 33%, UKIP 11%, Lib Dems 8%

Scotland: SNP 39%, Labour 29%, Conservatives 19%, Lib Dems 5%, UKIP 4%

The North: Labour 44%, Conservatives 28%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dems 7%

The South: Conservatives 40%, Labour 26%, UKIP 18%, Lib Dems 7%

A word of caution about some of these figures. Much of the data taken to extrapolate these figures was from the early week YouGov polls when the Tories had a lead. That may well have changed since then. Certainly, if yesterday's Survation poll showing UKIP on 25% nationally and on 37.4% in the South is correct, we should be able to detect this sooner or later in the YouGov regional figures.

Another word of warning: whilst ths SNP may at this time have a 10% lead over Labour in Scotland, it is highly unlikely that, when asked to choose a Westminster Tory or Labour Government, that Scots will abandon Labour on the scale suggested by these polls. My own suspicion is that Labour will recover to around 35% in Scotland by the time of the election. Nevertheless, Scottish Labour should be deeply concerned by these figures, which are a snapshot of public opinion currently, rather than a prediction of what may happen next May.

Predictions for tomorrow's parliamentary by-elections

Tomorrow is likely to be a hugely significant, even historic day in British Politics, and especially for this parliament in particular. Here is my prediction as to what the results of tomorrow's by-elections will be.

By election predictions:

Heywood and Middleton: PREDICTED RESULT: LABOUR HOLD ON A 9% SWING TO UKIP
Labour 45% (+5 from 2010) UKIP 27% (+23) Conservatives 15% (-14) Lib Dems 4% (-13) Greens 4% (+4)

UKIP have become the opposition to Labour in the North. That much is clear. UKIP came 2nd in 7 out of 8 wards in the constituency at the last set of local elections, and, although winning the seat may prove to be a little too much for them, they will come a credible 2nd and equal the share they had in Eastleigh. Labour will be delighted-an increase in their share of the vote and the likely Tory collapse will be good for party morale.

Clacton: PREDICTED RESULT: UKIP GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVES ON A 35.5% SWING FROM THE TORIES TO UKIP

UKIP 45% (+45) Conservatives 24% (-26) Labour 17% (-8) Lib Dems 4% (-9)

The result is likely to be as dramatic as it sounds. Douglas Carswell is hugely popular in Clacton-and it would be quite a shock if UKIP DIDNT win in a huge landslids tomorrow. Expect the Tories' to try to downplay this likely disaster as a classic mid-term result, but make no mistake, it will be quite a remarkabls result for UKIP and deeply damaging for David Cameron and the Tories.

How Ed Miliband can wrestle the initiative back from the Tories-And why he must do so.

Ed Miliband must control the agenda if he wants to win the next election

The Labour Party is currently in very serious trouble. Having led for most of this parliament in the opinion polls, it now finds itself trailing by 2 points in 3 consecutive YouGov polls. Only 17% of people see Ed Miliband as being Prime Ministerial material, whereas 44% say the same for David Cameron. John Prescott has criticised the direction of the party, whilst there are rumours that Alan Johnson and Andy Burnham are gearing up for a leadership contest. As soon as this June, it looked like Labour would easily romp to victory. When did Labour veer off course so suddenly?

The answer is on Wednesday. David Cameron made one of the most powerful and passionate speeches ever seen from a Tory Party leader. He decided to take the fight to Labour on areas where the party is traditionally strong-talking about Social Justice, Equality, and banning Zero-Hours contracts. The electorate were, on Wednesday night, whether Labour figures like to admit it or not, reminded of the credentials that David Cameron has for being Prime Minister, something that Ed Miliband once again has shown that he lacks when he forgot to talk about the economic deficit.

However- it is not all bad news for Ed Miliband. People may see him as being weird and not up to the job of being Prime Minister, but they also see him as compassionate, and less likely to be described as being "Out of touch" than Cameron and Clegg. Ed Miliband is the most popular party leader amongst young people. And these are the areas where the Labour Party, and Ed Miliband, have to focus their message on. Ed Miliband needs to stop listening to advisors and focus groups, and start listening to those in his cabinet, and his closest friends. A consequence of hiring politicical advisors from America, like Arnie Graf and David Axelrod, is that you often end up with American style political bashing that simply does not work in this country. Ed Miliband can never beat David Cameron in a US-Style Presidential Election, which is why trying to turn the General Election into a Presidential Election seems to be working for the Tories. Graf and Axelrod should focus on improving Miliband's image, rather than advising him on other issues.

When Ed Miliband showed that he had the courage and the conviction that people are desperately crying out for, with his energy price freeze, having the bravery to tackle the vested interests that people are so angry about, the Tories slumped to a new low and Labour took a commanding lead in the polls. Ed Miliband showed, right there and then, that a Labour agenda is popular. He must, in the course of the next few months, recapture the spirit of the energy price freeze in a speech that addresses people's concerns about Labour, whilst offering them a positive and optimistic view of the future. The vision offered must be coherent and clear, and not confused and scrambled as it has been as of late. This is the only way in which he will ever to regain the momentum that he needs if Labour are going to win an overall majority at the next election.

Another thing that Ed Miliband must do, is that he must reassure the Middle Class voters, who were wooed by Tony Blair and New Labour, but are afraid that a Left-Wing Labour Party will increase taxation on them. Taxation has always been a major issue that the Tories have managed to exploit, dating back to the days of Margaret Thatcher. The Labour Party must reassure these voters. We must seek to represent the squeezed middle, as well as the poor and working class.

If Ed Miliband does these things, and lays out a clear, coherent, and optimistic vision for Britain's future, then there is a chance that he could turn his party's fortunes around. Only time will tell if he has the courage to do it.

The speech that David Cameron made today was the speech of a man who is confident of victory......but is it even possible?

David Cameron made a very powerful speech today..but will it be enough?

The speech made today by the Prime Minister at the Conservative Party Conference was the speech of a man who thinks he is destined for electoral success. It was bold, passionate, and powerful. But how will this speech change the electoral landscape, and is it really possible for the Tory Party to win a majority in 2015?

First of all, let us examine the speech and the policy pledges made. David Cameron has pledged to protect the National Health Service- This is a repeat of his policy from the 2010 General Election, and is designed to calm fears from many swing voters about how the Tories would manage the NHS. It is also intended to neutralise Ed Miliband and the Labour Party lead over the NHS, as Ed Miliband has decided that Labour would make the NHS the main issue of the election campaign. Secondly, the tax-cutting policy. This has very broad appeal across the electorate, and in particular for the Middle English voters that have gone to Labour since 2010 or have become undecided. David Cameron is hoping to win back these voters so that the Tories can get back up to 34/35% of the vote.

First of all, I have some good news for the Prime Minister. Twice as many people trust the Tories with the deficit than they do Labour. David Cameron has an overwhelming lead over Ed Miliband as to who would be the best Prime Minister (Although the voters prefer a Labour Government to a Tory Government.) The Government is also seen as being more competent than Labour in general, although many still see the Tories as being the "Nasty Party."

However, this is where the bad news comes in. If the Tories want to win a majority, they have to go beyond what they did at the last election. They have to open up an 8 or 9 point lead over the Labour Party. This is a very difficult task, for many reasons. Firstly, because so many Tory voters have defected to UKIP, the task for David Cameron has become extremely difficult. He needs to win all of these voters back to have any chance of taking the lead- and at the moment, it looks very unlikely. Perhaps some may defect back to the Tories, but some will stay with UKIP at the General Election, as indicated by pollling. Another problem that David Cameron has is the current electoral strength of the Labour Party. To stop losing seats to Labour and start gaining them, the Tories need to have a lead of 8%. Currently, they trail by 5%, having lost significant numbers of votes to UKIP.. A turnaround of 12 points would be required just for the Tories to acheive a favourable hung parliament, and a swing of at least 12.5 or 13 points would be needed for David Cameron to get his majority. At this stage, this looks quite unlikely. Such a swing has happened in occasions throughout history-possibly most notably in 1992, but such a turnaround looks incredibly unlikely at this stage, and especially in a 4 party system, and at least half of the swing in 1992 could be attributed to pollster error.

What the Tories hope is that Ed Miliband's poor personal ratings will catch up with him at some point. There is a possibility that this could happen, but could it happens on a scale large enough for David Cameron to win a majority? I doubt it. Firstly, because Gordon Brown was incredibly unpopular too amongst core Labour voters-and they turned up to vote for him in 2010. These voters are not going anywhere. Secondly, the Lib Dem defectors to Labour have a much higher opinion of Ed Miliband than other Labour voters or the electorate in general. This is the major reason as to why Labour remain in the lead-a significant % of Lib Dem 2010 voters say they will vote Labour in 2015.

As long as this group stays as loyal to Labour as it is now, Labour will remain above 35%, and it will be impossible for the Tories to either acheive a hung parliament or to win the election. Another major issue concerns UKIP voters. The assumption from the Tories is that they are simply "Tories on holiday" and that they will return at the General Election. This assumption simply does not hold up to scrutiny. Lord Ashcroft polling found that UKIP voters preferred Cameron by only 27-23, and that 29% of UKIP voters would actually like a Labour Government, more than the number of those who said they would prefer a Tory Government! David Cameron needs to make sure that he reaches out to these voters and tries to win them over, rather than simply assuming that they will "Come home" to their former party.

The Tories also often claim that the electoral system is "Biased" against them. At first glance, it may seem that it is so. Labour can win a majority (Theoretically) with a 1% deficit, whilst the Tories can win a majority only if they are at least 8.5% ahead. However, taking a closer look at the electoral dynamic, it is clear that this is not the case. There are three major reasons as to why Labour's vote is so more efficient than that of the Tories. Firstly, because Labour Party voters tend not to turn out where it doesn't matter (In safe seats) but turn up in much larger numbers in close contests in marginal seats. This is why, despite trailing by 0.5% in England, Tony Blair managed to win 82 more seats than the Tories in the 2005 General Election. The second reason is because the Tory vote is very heavily concentrated in areas where they are already strong-in this case in safe seats in the South-West and South-East of England. There is a saying: When Labour win a seat, they win it by 1000 votes, when the Tories win a seat, they win it by 10,000. The Conservative Party has failed to broaden its appeal in Scotland, the North of England, and Wales, and must seek to do this if it wishes to win a majority next time. The 3rd major reason is tactical voting. Most current Liberal Democrat seats tend to be seats that they had won from the Tories in the 1997 Tony Blair landslide, through massive anti-Tory tactical voting. In areas where the contest is between Liberal Democrats and the Tories, Labour voters in the past have tended to switch to the Lib Dems to "Keep the Tories out." There is some evidence that as a result of the Lib Dem-Tory coalition, that this tactical alliance may be weakening, which would help the Tory Party-but what this means for next year is yet to be seen.

Due to the factors outlined above, it is my conclusion that David Cameron faces a very long and hard road ahead. All of the pollsters and bookies have Ed Miliband as the favourite to become PM, and many Tories themselves have admitted that it is unlikely that they will win next year. The next 8 months shall be the most crucial in this parliament-let's see what the people decide in May next year.

The 5 Tory MPs most likely to defect to UKIP

Carswell's (Above Left) defection may inspire others to do the same.

I am sure that many people reading this post will be very interested in the recent defection of Douglas Carswell MP to UKIP. Carswell's defection shook the political establishment, and, in the event of a successful By-Election victory, he is unlikely to be the last.

This post lists the top 5 Tory MPs who are likely to defect to UKIP, in my view, I must stress. I have used a wide range of data to come to these conclusions, including the bookies, behaviour of potential defectors in parliament, constituency demographics, local election results, and the so-called "UKIP potential" of their constituency, calculated by the use of the book "Revolt on the Right", which used a range of data and evidence to compile a list of the most UKIP friendly seats.

1: Chris Kelly (Member for Dudley South)


If Douglas Carswell's defection is anything to go by, then it is likely that we will soon see another defection in the shape of Chris Kelly. Chris Kelly has long been rumoured to be a likely switcher, and today, stories in the Daily Mail and Conservative Home appeared to link him strongly to defection. Dudley South is one of UKIP's best hopes in 2015, being the 13th most UKIP friendly Tory held seat, and is likely to become a 3 way marginal next time. 40% of people in the seat have no formal qualifications, well above the 23% national average. The seat has a large "Left behind" demographic which UKIP have skillfully exploited. Indeed, Labour strategists in the area have indicated that they are bracing themselves for a very tough battle in a constituency that is a must-win for Labour if they want to form a Government next year.

The MP, Chris Kelly, is retiring, but it is possible that he will defect to sit as a UKIP MP for the last 8 months of his political career, and to campaign with his successor as UKIP's candidate. Expect a very tight race in Dudley South if this happens. Kelly's record suggests that there is a chance of this happening-he is one of the most rebellious Tory MPs in the Commons.

2:) Peter Bone (Member for Wellingborough)
Peter Bone is regarded as one of the most rebellious and determined Tory backbenchers-and has been rebuked many times by Conservative Home, the official propaganda machine of CCHQ. He is one of the MPs most fiercely opposed to David Cameron's attempts to give the party a better image, being a firm opponent of abortion and a denier of climate change.

Mr Bone was voted off the 1922 Commitee (Conservative Backbencher NEC) by the modernising "301 Group", who planning a coup to replace Bone and other Tory MPs who they considered to be backwards and regressive. The reformers argued that the 1922 Committee was "run by a group of mostly cantankerous old farts who do little to further right-wing ideas" and needed to campaign on issues other than EU membership and their objections to House of Lords reform, since it was not good for the "Modern" image the Tories tried to present to the electorate.

Bone is also a member of the Cornerstone Group, known for its pro-UKIP stance, and a group infamous for its Right-Wing, Socially Conservative, anti-EU rules. Wellingborough is the 70th most UKIP friendly Tory seat-it is in an area of the East Midlands where UKIP have been doing quite well in recent European Elections, and will be looking to build on that record.

3:) Bernard Jenkin (Member for Harwich and North Essex)
You would probably be quite surprised to know that I have included Jenkin on this list, if you had any idea of his background. He served in the Shadow Cabinet of the Tory Party under Michael Howard, and was Vice-Chair of the Tory Party before he was sacked in 2006.

Looking at the fact that he has had such an illustrious career on the Tory front benches, it may seem surprising that such a figure would choose to defect. However, take a look closer and a picture of discontent is revealed. Jenkin is a very rebellious Tory MP: he is referred to as rebelling "Quite often" against his party on They Work for You. Jenkin is a determined Eurosceptic, and has been quietly sitting on the backbenches whilst Cameron has attempted to modernise his party and drag it toward the Centre Ground. Jenkin has long been rumoured to have been courted by UKIP, and the fact that he is an MP in Essex, an area where UKIP polled 40-50% of the vote in many areas at the Local Elections this year, may persuade him to jump ship, if, as expected, Douglas Carswell wins by a big margin in the Clacton By-Election on October 9th. It would be a major blow to the Tories and a slight surprise-but don't rule it out at all.

4:) Jacob Mogg ( Member for North East Somerset)
Mogg is not your traditional UKIP Politician, being very independently wealthy and coming from an area that is very wealthy itself. North East Somerset itself is very strongly Conservative, and Mogg is a commited Eurosceptic. This is an area where UKIP can be expected to poll well in 2015, despite it not being the most demographically favourable area for them.

Writing in the Daily Telegraph in May 2013, Mogg asked whether it was time to make a “big open and comprehensive offer” to UKIP. He said collaboration would be straightforward as policies were similar on the vast majoriy of issues, and he said that most Tories would like Nigel Farage to become the Deputy PM. His remarks infuriated the leadership, whilst UKIP said it was against any sort of arrangement. Paul Goodman, the editor of Conservative Home, said he believed a short-term pact was both impractical and undesirable, and did not believe that it would work.

Mogg has long sought an alliance with UKIP. He has long been open about the prospect of this, and called for it during the BBC broadcast of the 2014 Local Elections. Mogg can be regarded as a sort of Tony Benn of the Right-he is well respected by many Labour as well as Tory politicians, is very high-profile and popular in his constituency, and is a very principled Eurosceptic. Notably, he was silent on Douglas Carswell's defection when many of his fellow Tory Eurosceptics came out and openly condemned the defection. The question is, will he gamble and join UKIP, or will he play it safe and try to negotiate an individual pact with them? The choice is difficult.

5:) George Eustice (Member for Camborne and Redruth)
Cornwall has become one of UKIP's strongest areas in recent years, and Camborne and Redruth one of UKIP's strongest areas in Cornwall. The seat is the 26th most UKIP friendly Tory seat, and has a large "Left behind" demographic, of voters who have become disillusioned with both the Tories and Lib Dems. We can expect UKIP to put up a strong challenge here in 2015.

Eustice himself is a known Eurosceptic, and according to the bookies, is one of the favourites to jump ship. The UKIP vote has been increasing in the area, and he, like many others, may prefer to wait for the Clacton result before making his move.

We must not be reluctant to condemn ISIS

Yazidi refugees sheltering in the Iraqi Mountains


 Hello everybody. This is my first blog post in months-I've had persistent computer issues so I haven't been able to post, but I'm back now!

I want to share an opinion on the ongoing situation in Iraq. As I write, innocent civilians are being killed at the hands of the terror group known as ISIS.

Last week, I attended a Pro-Palestine protest in Manchester. Me and a few hundred other protesters stood next to a statue of Queen Elizabeth in the City Centre, waving flags and chanting "Free Palestine!". At the time it seemed like a righteous cause. Fellow Muslims were being killed in the Palestinian Territories and we were, for a while, the custodians of justice, speaking up for those who have no voice.

Fast forward a week later, and ISIS is doing the same thing, if not worse, to Iraqi's. Iraqi people have suffered greatly over the years-500,000 were killed in the aftermath of the Iraq war- so you would assume that there would be anti-ISIS rallies all over Manchester and indeed the world, in response to the brutal killing of thousands of men, women, and children, Muslim, Christian, and Yazidi, as well as Kurds.

But, as I write this, I have yet to see a single anti-ISIS rally. I have yet to see a single Muslim or non-Muslim politician here speak out strongly against the brutal ISIS assault. Instead, everybody seems to be readily criticising Israel whilst forgetting that crimes of a much greater gravity are being commited in Iraq.

This is unnaceptable and completely wrong. Surely, simply because it is fellow Muslims killing other Muslims rather than "The Jews" killing Muslims, the suffering endured by the Iraqi's should not be trivialised in comparison to the mass outcry over the deaths of Palestinians?

Considering this, it is understandable that our opponents have accused us of Anti-Semitism. In sheer numbers, ISIS is already reported to have killed tens of thousands of people in the last few weeks, commited genocide against Shia Muslims and Christians, and today besieged Yazidi villages, raped Yazidi women, and summarily executed men. In the last month, the Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip has led to the deaths of slightly under 2000 Palestinians. Whilst every single death in Palestine is completely deplorable, surely those who condemn the Israeli action (As I do) must condemn in equally strong terms the brutal massacres of innocent children in Iraq at the hands of ISIS?


The Left in particular seems to be guilty of hypocricy in this way, although it is not exclusive: Politicians such as Saeeda Warsi, resigning because she reportedly saw the conflict in Gaza as "Morally reprehensible", having kept silent over the conflict in Syria, are part of the problem rather than solution. The fact, however, remains that the majority of those criticising Israel but refusing to speak out against Syrian and ISIS war crimes are those on the Left.

Surely, to retain any credibility, Muslim politicians and politicians on the Left must condemn the killing of Iraqi civilians just as strongly as Palestinians?

I completely understand why the Gaza conflict arouses passions as no other conflict does: as a Muslim the conflict is close to my heart too, but surely, the same holds true for Iraqi Muslims?

Slightly over 25 years ago, Saddam Hussein's Al-Anfal campaign concluded, having massacred nearly 200,000 Kurdish and Yazidi men, women, and children. Politicians of the Left were weak and unwilling to condemn the brutal genocide at that time, whilst those of the Right simply used the situation to play politics.  Let's not repeat the same mistake with ISIS.

Farage-Clegg debate stokes up the European Election campaign

 

The announcement that the Farage-Clegg debate will now take place on BBC Two on the 2nd of April has stoked up the European Election campaign and fired up Party machinery for all of the respective political parties. 

For both leaders the mere fact that this is taking place is a positive and will reinforce both their positions. Clegg, I’d suggest, has most to gain if only because he starts at a much lower point. He will be able to regain support that he has lost to Labour and strengthen his own position as party leader, which has been looking shaky.

The whole strategy of the yellows is to portray themselves as the party that is unequivocally committed to staying in the EU, and the fact of the debate with its associated coverage will reinforce that. This is going to be a debate between the most pro-EU and the most anti-EU party leaders.

For Farage this allows him to operate on a wider scale and put a marker down for the GE2015. If he can take part in this event it is going to be much harder excluding him at the General Election. The fury that would commence from the electorate would be far too much of a risk for the other parties, close to a General Election.

Who’ll win? It actually doesn’t matter for both will be declared victory by their respective audiences.

On paper, at least, Clegg should be the most accomplished based on his PMQ and Dave outings. He can think on his feet, is intelligent, somewhat charimatic, and hold his own. He’s also less likely than Farage to get rattled and lose his temper.
My guess is that the Tories will be secretly cheering Clegg on in the hope that he might burst the UKIP bubble. Labour will implicitly be hoping that Clegg does poorly, but also that Farage does not do spectacularly either.