Election night declaration times: P.A Expects higher turnout.

Here is a list of expected declaration times at the election, from the Press Association.
The first declaration, notably, is expected 20 minutes later than it was in 2010. Is this indicative of a higher turnout? The P.A, and the local councils providing the data, certainly seem to think so. Two early tests for Labour will be Nuneaton and Battersea, the former being an ultra marginal that Labour must gain to win the election, the latter slightly safer for the Tories, but it will be interesting to see the swing as it is a London seat!

320	Houghton & Sunderland South	23:00
603	Washington & Sunderland West	23:30
551	Sunderland Central	00:01
216	Durham North West	00:30
14	Antrim North	01:00
175	Dagenham & Rainham	01:00
215	Durham North	01:00
255	Foyle	01:00
435	Nuneaton	01:00
176	Darlington	01:30
214	Durham, City of	01:30
221	Easington	01:30
347	Lagan Valley	01:30
407	Na h-Eileanan an Iar	01:30
584	Tyrone West	01:30
586	Upper Bann	01:30
588	Vale of Clwyd	01:30
12	Angus	02:00
13	Antrim East	02:00
28	Barking	02:00
38	Battersea	02:00
45	Belfast East	02:00
46	Belfast North	02:00
47	Belfast South	02:00
48	Belfast West	02:00
66	Bishop Auckland	02:00
71	Blaenau Gwent	02:00
106	Broxbourne	02:00
125	Canterbury	02:00
131	Carmarthen East & Dinefwr	02:00
132	Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South	02:00
134	Castle Point	02:00
139	Chelmsford	02:00
142	Chesham & Amersham	02:00
150	Christchurch	02:00
202	Down North	02:00
217	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	02:00
223	East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow	02:00
226	Eastleigh	02:00
239	Epping Forest	02:00
250	Fife North East	02:00
269	Glenrothes	02:00
285	Halton	02:00
345	Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath	02:00
348	Lanark & Hamilton East	02:00
375	Llanelli	02:00
427	Northampton North	02:00
428	Northampton South	02:00
443	Oxford East	02:00
462	Putney	02:00
487	Rutherglen & Hamilton West	02:00
530	Staffordshire South	02:00
542	Strangford	02:00
552	Surrey East	02:00
562	Tamworth	02:00
574	Tooting	02:00
647	Ynys Mon	02:00
570	Thornbury & Yate	02:15
15	Antrim South	02:30
143	Chester, City of	02:30
151	Cities of London & Westminster	02:30
153	Cleethorpes	02:30
189	Devon East	02:30
211	Dundee East	02:30
212	Dundee West	02:30
227	Eddisbury	02:30
234	Ellesmere Port & Neston	02:30
251	Filton & Bradley Stoke	02:30
287	Hampshire East	02:30
296	Hartlepool	02:30
302	Hemel Hempstead	02:30
308	Hertford & Stortford	02:30
330	Inverclyde	02:30
334	Islington North	02:30
335	Islington South & Finsbury	02:30
342	Kilmarnock & Loudoun	02:30
344	Kingswood	02:30
359	Leicestershire North West	02:30
367	Lichfield	02:30
379	Ludlow	02:30
385	Makerfield	02:30
399	Mitcham & Morden	02:30
402	Montgomeryshire	02:30
412	Newbury	02:30
474	Rochdale	02:30
533	Stirling	02:30
615	Westminster North	02:30
621	Wimbledon	02:30
636	Workington	02:30
646	Yeovil	02:30
1	Aberavon	03:00
2	Aberconwy	03:00
6	Airdrie & Shotts	03:00
10	Alyn & Deeside	03:00
11	Amber Valley	03:00
16	Arfon	03:00
17	Argyll & Bute	03:00
29	Barnsley Central	03:00
30	Barnsley East	03:00
33	Basildon South & Thurrock East	03:00
41	Bedford	03:00
49	Bermondsey & Old Southwark	03:00
75	Bolsover	03:00
76	Bolton North East	03:00
77	Bolton South East	03:00
78	Bolton West	03:00
81	Bosworth	03:00
84	Bracknell	03:00
89	Brecon & Radnorshire	03:00
90	Brent Central	03:00
91	Brent North	03:00
100	Bristol North West	03:00
102	Bristol West	03:00
111	Bury North	03:00
112	Bury South	03:00
113	Bury St Edmunds	03:00
117	Camberwell & Peckham	03:00
130	Carlisle	03:00
154	Clwyd South	03:00
155	Clwyd West	03:00
156	Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill	03:00
160	Copeland	03:00
170	Croydon Central	03:00
171	Croydon North	03:00
172	Croydon South	03:00
179	Delyn	03:00
181	Derby North	03:00
182	Derby South	03:00
184	Derbyshire Mid	03:00
185	Derbyshire North East	03:00
186	Derbyshire South	03:00
209	Dunbartonshire East	03:00
213	Dunfermline & Fife West	03:00
224	East Lothian	03:00
241	Erewash	03:00
244	Exeter	03:00
245	Falkirk	03:00
256	Fylde	03:00
260	Gedling	03:00
262	Glasgow Central	03:00
263	Glasgow East	03:00
264	Glasgow North	03:00
265	Glasgow North East	03:00
266	Glasgow North West	03:00
267	Glasgow South	03:00
268	Glasgow South West	03:00
273	Gower	03:00
290	Hampstead & Kilburn	03:00
293	Harrogate & Knaresborough	03:00
298	Hastings & Rye	03:00
299	Havant	03:00
310	Hertfordshire South West	03:00
314	High Peak	03:00
316	Holborn & St Pancras	03:00
318	Hornsey & Wood Green	03:00
323	Hull East	03:00
324	Hull North	03:00
325	Hull West & Hessle	03:00
326	Huntingdon	03:00
333	Isle of Wight	03:00
337	Jarrow	03:00
343	Kingston & Surbiton	03:00
346	Knowsley	03:00
376	Londonderry East	03:00
386	Maldon	03:00
393	Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney	03:00
395	Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East	03:00
403	Moray	03:00
406	Motherwell & Wishaw	03:00
408	Neath	03:00
417	Newport East	03:00
418	Newport West	03:00
421	Norfolk Mid	03:00
436	Ochil & Perthshire South	03:00
445	Paisley & Renfrewshire North	03:00
446	Paisley & Renfrewshire South	03:00
450	Perth & Perthshire North	03:00
451	Peterborough	03:00
460	Preston	03:00
469	Renfrewshire East	03:00
471	Ribble Valley	03:00
481	Rother Valley	03:00
482	Rotherham	03:00
486	Rushcliffe	03:00
513	Skipton & Ripon	03:00
514	Sleaford & North Hykeham	03:00
515	Slough	03:00
516	Solihull	03:00
517	Somerset North	03:00
522	South Shields	03:00
528	Stafford	03:00
535	Stockton North	03:00
536	Stockton South	03:00
540	Stone	03:00
550	Suffolk West	03:00
558	Swansea East	03:00
559	Swansea West	03:00
560	Swindon North	03:00
561	Swindon South	03:00
565	Telford	03:00
571	Thurrock	03:00
589	Vale of Glamorgan	03:00
608	Wellingborough	03:00
610	Welwyn Hatfield	03:00
611	Wentworth & Dearne	03:00
623	Windsor	03:00
641	Wrexham	03:00
642	Wycombe	03:00
643	Wyre & Preston North	03:00
8	Aldridge-Brownhills	03:30
35	Bassetlaw	03:30
40	Beckenham	03:30
42	Bedfordshire Mid	03:30
44	Bedfordshire South West	03:30
69	Blackpool North & Cleveleys	03:30
70	Blackpool South	03:30
72	Blaydon	03:30
82	Bournemouth East	03:30
83	Bournemouth West	03:30
104	Bromley & Chislehurst	03:30
109	Burnley	03:30
121	Cambridgeshire North West	03:30
122	Cambridgeshire South	03:30
136	Charnwood	03:30
141	Cheltenham	03:30
164	Cotswolds, The	03:30
201	Dover	03:30
203	Down South	03:30
206	Dulwich & West Norwood	03:30
210	Dunbartonshire West	03:30
222	East Ham	03:30
233	Edmonton	03:30
237	Enfield North	03:30
238	Enfield Southgate	03:30
272	Gosport	03:30
276	Great Grimsby	03:30
292	Harlow	03:30
368	Lincoln	03:30
369	Linlithgow & Falkirk East	03:30
374	Livingston	03:30
377	Loughborough	03:30
396	Midlothian	03:30
419	Newry & Armagh	03:30
442	Orpington	03:30
463	Rayleigh & Wickford	03:30
468	Reigate	03:30
521	South Ribble	03:30
544	Streatham	03:30
548	Suffolk Coastal	03:30
553	Surrey Heath	03:30
569	Thirsk & Malton	03:30
576	Torfaen	03:30
585	Ulster Mid	03:30
590	Vauxhall	03:30
593	Walsall North	03:30
594	Walsall South	03:30
598	Warley	03:30
607	Weaver Vale	03:30
612	West Bromwich East	03:30
613	West Bromwich West	03:30
614	West Ham	03:30
634	Worcestershire Mid	03:30
640	Wrekin, The	03:30
5	Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine	04:00
7	Aldershot	04:00
19	Ashfield	04:00
23	Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock	04:00
24	Ayrshire Central	04:00
25	Ayrshire North & Arran	04:00
27	Banff & Buchan	04:00
31	Barrow & Furness	04:00
32	Basildon & Billericay	04:00
43	Bedfordshire North East	04:00
55	Bexleyheath & Crayford	04:00
61	Birmingham Ladywood	04:00
67	Blackburn	04:00
88	Braintree	04:00
93	Brentwood & Ongar	04:00
94	Bridgend	04:00
95	Bridgwater & Somerset West	04:00
99	Bristol East	04:00
101	Bristol South	04:00
105	Bromsgrove	04:00
107	Broxtowe	04:00
114	Caerphilly	04:00
120	Cambridgeshire North East	04:00
124	Cannock Chase	04:00
133	Carshalton & Wallington	04:00
135	Ceredigion	04:00
140	Chelsea & Fulham	04:00
144	Chesterfield	04:00
145	Chichester	04:00
168	Crawley	04:00
173	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East	04:00
177	Dartford	04:00
183	Derbyshire Dales	04:00
190	Devon North	04:00
191	Devon South West	04:00
192	Devon West & Torridge	04:00
194	Don Valley	04:00
195	Doncaster Central	04:00
196	Doncaster North	04:00
200	Dorset West	04:00
204	Dudley North	04:00
205	Dudley South	04:00
207	Dumfries & Galloway	04:00
208	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale	04:00
225	Eastbourne	04:00
228	Edinburgh East	04:00
229	Edinburgh North & Leith	04:00
230	Edinburgh South	04:00
231	Edinburgh South West	04:00
232	Edinburgh West	04:00
236	Eltham	04:00
240	Epsom & Ewell	04:00
242	Erith & Thamesmead	04:00
243	Esher & Walton	04:00
246	Fareham	04:00
253	Folkestone & Hythe	04:00
258	Garston & Halewood	04:00
259	Gateshead	04:00
270	Gloucester	04:00
278	Greenwich & Woolwich	04:00
279	Guildford	04:00
280	Hackney North & Stoke Newington	04:00
281	Hackney South & Shoreditch	04:00
286	Hammersmith	04:00
289	Hampshire North West	04:00
291	Harborough	04:00
294	Harrow East	04:00
295	Harrow West	04:00
306	Hereford & Herefordshire South	04:00
311	Hertsmere	04:00
313	Heywood & Middleton	04:00
332	Ipswich	04:00
336	Islwyn	04:00
341	Kettering	04:00
361	Leigh	04:00
362	Lewes	04:00
363	Lewisham Deptford	04:00
364	Lewisham East	04:00
365	Lewisham West & Penge	04:00
380	Luton North	04:00
381	Luton South	04:00
383	Maidenhead	04:00
390	Mansfield	04:00
392	Meriden	04:00
401	Monmouth	04:00
409	New Forest East	04:00
411	Newark	04:00
413	Newcastle-under-Lyme	04:00
414	Newcastle upon Tyne Central	04:00
415	Newcastle upon Tyne East	04:00
416	Newcastle upon Tyne North	04:00
422	Norfolk North	04:00
429	Northamptonshire South	04:00
432	Nottingham East	04:00
433	Nottingham North	04:00
434	Nottingham South	04:00
437	Ogmore	04:00
438	Old Bexley & Sidcup	04:00
441	Orkney & Shetland	04:00
447	Pendle	04:00
448	Penistone & Stocksbridge	04:00
449	Penrith & The Border	04:00
452	Plymouth Moor View	04:00
453	Plymouth Sutton & Devonport	04:00
459	Preseli Pembrokeshire	04:00
467	Redditch	04:00
473	Richmond Park	04:00
476	Rochford & Southend East	04:00
478	Romsey & Southampton North	04:00
485	Runnymede & Weybridge	04:00
489	Saffron Walden	04:00
497	Scarborough & Whitby	04:00
501	Selby & Ainsty	04:00
502	Sevenoaks	04:00
523	Southampton Itchen	04:00
524	Southampton Test	04:00
525	Southend West	04:00
527	Spelthorne	04:00
529	Staffordshire Moorlands	04:00
546	Stroud	04:00
547	Suffolk Central & Ipswich North	04:00
549	Suffolk South	04:00
554	Surrey South West	04:00
555	Sussex Mid	04:00
556	Sutton & Cheam	04:00
557	Sutton Coldfield	04:00
578	Tottenham	04:00
580	Tunbridge Wells	04:00
581	Twickenham	04:00
602	Warwickshire North	04:00
606	Wealden	04:00
616	Westmorland & Lonsdale	04:00
617	Weston-Super-Mare	04:00
618	Wigan	04:00
620	Wiltshire South West	04:00
626	Witham	04:00
628	Woking	04:00
635	Worcestershire West	04:00
644	Wyre Forest	04:00
18	Arundel & South Downs	04:30
26	Banbury	04:30
37	Batley & Spen	04:30
51	Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk	04:30
54	Bexhill & Battle	04:30
58	Birmingham Erdington	04:30
96	Brigg & Goole	04:30
138	Cheadle	04:30
147	Chippenham	04:30
148	Chipping Barnet	04:30
152	Clacton	04:30
157	Colchester	04:30
158	Colne Valley	04:30
159	Congleton	04:30
161	Corby	04:30
169	Crewe & Nantwich	04:30
178	Daventry	04:30
187	Devizes	04:30
193	Dewsbury	04:30
235	Elmet & Rothwell	04:30
271	Gordon	04:30
275	Gravesham	04:30
297	Harwich & Essex North	04:30
301	Hazel Grove	04:30
309	Hertfordshire North East	04:30
319	Horsham	04:30
322	Huddersfield	04:30
328	Ilford North	04:30
329	Ilford South	04:30
340	Kensington	04:30
349	Lancashire West	04:30
351	Leeds Central	04:30
352	Leeds East	04:30
353	Leeds North East	04:30
354	Leeds North West	04:30
355	Leeds West	04:30
360	Leicestershire South	04:30
394	Middlesbrough	04:30
400	Mole Valley	04:30
405	Morley & Outwood	04:30
420	Newton Abbot	04:30
424	Norfolk South	04:30
430	Norwich North	04:30
431	Norwich South	04:30
461	Pudsey	04:30
466	Redcar	04:30
496	Salisbury	04:30
498	Scunthorpe	04:30
503	Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough	04:30
504	Sheffield Central	04:30
505	Sheffield Hallam	04:30
506	Sheffield Heeley	04:30
507	Sheffield South East	04:30
510	Shrewsbury & Atcham	04:30
519	Somerton & Frome	04:30
532	Stevenage	04:30
534	Stockport	04:30
577	Totnes	04:30
582	Tynemouth	04:30
583	Tyneside North	04:30
619	Wiltshire North	04:30
627	Witney	04:30
630	Wolverhampton North East	04:30
631	Wolverhampton South East	04:30
632	Wolverhampton South West	04:30
9	Altrincham & Sale West	05:00
20	Ashford	05:00
36	Bath	05:00
39	Beaconsfield	05:00
52	Bethnal Green & Bow	05:00
53	Beverley & Holderness	05:00
56	Birkenhead	05:00
62	Birmingham Northfield	05:00
65	Birmingham Yardley	05:00
79	Bootle	05:00
80	Boston & Skegness	05:00
85	Bradford East	05:00
86	Bradford South	05:00
87	Bradford West	05:00
92	Brentford & Isleworth	05:00
97	Brighton Kemptown	05:00
98	Brighton Pavilion	05:00
110	Burton	05:00
115	Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross	05:00
116	Calder Valley	05:00
119	Cambridge	05:00
137	Chatham & Aylesford	05:00
146	Chingford & Woodford Green	05:00
149	Chorley	05:00
165	Coventry North East	05:00
166	Coventry North West	05:00
167	Coventry South	05:00
174	Cynon Valley	05:00
197	Dorset Mid & Poole North	05:00
198	Dorset North	05:00
199	Dorset South	05:00
218	Ealing Central & Acton	05:00
219	Ealing North	05:00
247	Faversham & Kent Mid	05:00
248	Feltham & Heston	05:00
249	Fermanagh & South Tyrone	05:00
252	Finchley & Golders Green	05:00
257	Gainsborough	05:00
274	Grantham & Stamford	05:00
282	Halesowen & Rowley Regis	05:00
284	Haltemprice & Howden	05:00
303	Hemsworth	05:00
304	Hendon	05:00
307	Herefordshire North	05:00
315	Hitchin & Harpenden	05:00
321	Hove	05:00
327	Hyndburn	05:00
331	Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey	05:00
338	Keighley	05:00
366	Leyton & Wanstead	05:00
370	Liverpool Riverside	05:00
371	Liverpool Walton	05:00
372	Liverpool Wavertree	05:00
373	Liverpool West Derby	05:00
378	Louth & Horncastle	05:00
384	Maidstone & The Weald	05:00
391	Meon Valley	05:00
410	New Forest West	05:00
426	Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford	05:00
454	Pontypridd	05:00
455	Poole	05:00
456	Poplar & Limehouse	05:00
470	Rhondda	05:00
472	Richmond (Yorks)	05:00
475	Rochester & Strood	05:00
480	Rossendale & Darwen	05:00
483	Rugby	05:00
488	Rutland & Melton	05:00
490	St Albans	05:00
495	Salford & Eccles	05:00
499	Sedgefield	05:00
500	Sefton Central	05:00
508	Sherwood	05:00
509	Shipley	05:00
512	Sittingbourne & Sheppey	05:00
518	Somerset North East	05:00
526	Southport	05:00
541	Stourbridge	05:00
543	Stratford-on-Avon	05:00
545	Stretford & Urmston	05:00
564	Taunton Deane	05:00
572	Tiverton & Honiton	05:00
575	Torbay	05:00
591	Wakefield	05:00
592	Wallasey	05:00
595	Walthamstow	05:00
599	Warrington North	05:00
600	Warrington South	05:00
622	Winchester	05:00
624	Wirral South	05:00
625	Wirral West	05:00
633	Worcester	05:00
637	Worsley & Eccles South	05:00
648	York Central	05:00
649	York Outer	05:00
650	Yorkshire East	05:00
22	Aylesbury	05:30
34	Basingstoke	05:30
57	Birmingham Edgbaston	05:30
60	Birmingham Hodge Hill	05:30
103	Broadland	05:30
108	Buckingham	05:30
123	Cambridgeshire South East	05:30
188	Devon Central	05:30
277	Great Yarmouth	05:30
283	Halifax	05:30
520	South Holland & The Deepings	05:30
605	Waveney	05:30
3	Aberdeen North	06:00
4	Aberdeen South	06:00
63	Birmingham Perry Barr	06:00
64	Birmingham Selly Oak	06:00
74	Bognor Regis & Littlehampton	06:00
126	Cardiff Central	06:00
127	Cardiff North	06:00
128	Cardiff South & Penarth	06:00
129	Cardiff West	06:00
220	Ealing Southall	06:00
254	Forest of Dean	06:00
261	Gillingham & Rainham	06:00
288	Hampshire North East	06:00
300	Hayes & Harlington	06:00
305	Henley	06:00
350	Lancaster & Fleetwood	06:00
404	Morecambe & Lunesdale	06:00
423	Norfolk North West	06:00
425	Norfolk South West	06:00
444	Oxford West & Abingdon	06:00
464	Reading East	06:00
465	Reading West	06:00
477	Romford	06:00
484	Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner	06:00
492	St Helens North	06:00
493	St Helens South & Whiston	06:00
511	Shropshire North	06:00
537	Stoke-on-Trent Central	06:00
538	Stoke-on-Trent North	06:00
539	Stoke-on-Trent South	06:00
563	Tatton	06:00
566	Tewkesbury	06:00
567	Thanet North	06:00
568	Thanet South	06:00
573	Tonbridge & Malling	06:00
587	Uxbridge & Ruislip South	06:00
597	Wantage	06:00
604	Watford	06:00
629	Wokingham	06:00
638	Worthing East & Shoreham	06:00
639	Worthing West	06:00
21	Ashton Under Lyne	06:30
59	Birmingham Hall Green	06:30
118	Camborne & Redruth	06:30
162	Cornwall North	06:30
163	Cornwall South East	06:30
180	Denton & Reddish	06:30
457	Portsmouth North	06:30
458	Portsmouth South	06:30
491	St Austell & Newquay	06:30
531	Stalybridge & Hyde	06:30
579	Truro & Falmouth	06:30
68	Blackley & Broughton	07:00
317	Hornchurch & Upminster	07:00
356	Leicester East	07:00
357	Leicester South	07:00
358	Leicester West	07:00
382	Macclesfield	07:00
387	Manchester Central	07:00
388	Manchester Gorton	07:00
389	Manchester Withington	07:00
397	Milton Keynes North	07:00
398	Milton Keynes South	07:00
439	Oldham East & Saddleworth	07:00
440	Oldham West & Royton	07:00
479	Ross, Skye & Lochaber	07:00
609	Wells	07:00
645	Wythenshawe & Sale East	07:00
50	Berwick-upon-Tweed	12:00
73	Blyth Valley	12:00
312	Hexham	12:00
339	Kenilworth & Southam	12:00
596	Wansbeck	12:00
601	Warwick & Leamington	12:00
494	St Ives	13:00

A guide to the positions of the various parties on a coalition.

The general election is just over a week away now. Here is a short guide to the positions of the minor parties on who they will support in a (Likely) hung parliament after the general election.

Possible coalitions that may be formed after the next election, and the position of the various parties.

Liberal Democrats (Likely to win 25-30 seats):
Nick Clegg has signalled his readiness to go into coalition with whoever is the largest party after the election, Labour or Tory. However, the Lib Dems are only likely to win about 30 seats, making such a deal unlikely at the present moment.

Scottish National Party (Likely to win 40-50 seats): SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has said she will "Never" do a deal with the Tories and is prepared to go into coalition only with Labour. Ed Miliband has ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP but refused to rule out an informal confidence and supply deal, making an SNP-Lab pact the most likely outcome of this election.

United Kingdom Independence Party (Likely to win 1-5 seats): UKIP leader Nigel Farage recently said that he would be prepared to do a deal with anyone-including Labour-if it got him an EU referendum in return. However, in recent months Mr Farage has hardened his position, saying his party would vote for David Cameron to remain PM whilst opposing EdM, and recently told his supporters to vote Tory in Con-Lab marginal seats to prevent a "Disastrous left-wing coalition" from winning.

Green (Likely to win 0-2 seats): Green leader Natalie Bennett has categorically ruled out any sort of deal with the Tories, but has been silent on the prospect of any pact with Labour. However, the only Green MP, Caroline Lucas, has vocally talked up the prospect of a pact with Labour, and recently said she would support Labour in a hung parliament.

Respect (Likely to win 0-1 seats): Respect and former Labour MP George Galloway has refused to say which party he would support in a hung parliament. He may be slightly more inclined toward Labour, but has indicated that he may abstain in a no-confidence vote.

Social Democratic and Labour Party (Likely to win 2-3 seats): SDLP leader Dr Alisdair Mcdougall has said his party will support "A strong, progressive Labour government", but will abstain on trident renewal. The social democratic party leader has categorically ruled out any sort of official or non-official deal with any other party.

Plaid Cymru (Likely to win 2-3 seats): Plaid leader Leanne Wood has said she will back Labour in a hung parliament, but this does not translated to "Unconditional support" on issues such as trident. Plaid has been a vocal critic of the Tories and has said they will attempt to vote down a Cameron led minority government.

Democratic Unionist Party (Likely to win 8-10 seats): The DUP have said they will support, and unconditionally vote for, the platform of either major party that reaches out to them. The DUP have refused to rule out a deal with either Labour or the Tories, saying that a deal was dependent on the "Individual offer" each party was willing to make (I.e whoever proposes more money for NI).

Sinn Fein (Likely to win 4-6 seats): Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams has rejected speculation that his party will end its long held abstinence from Westminster, saying that both major parties are committed to the preservation of British colonialism over Ireland.

Alliance (Likely to win 0-1 seats):
The Alliance have not said who they will support in a hung parliament, but the likelihood is that they will follow their UK wide allied party (The Liberal Democrats). Alliance MP Naomi Long faces a very tough battle to hold on in East Belfast, facing a stiff DUP challenge.

Ulster Unionist Party (Likely to win 0-1 seats): The UUP have said they would prefer a deal with the Conservatives if they did manage to win a Westminster seat.

Tories call on young GOP activists to try to stave off Labour win

Mr Realpolitik has learned, via a post here (That was either deleted or subsequently removed) that the Conservative Party is bringing over GOP activists to campaign in critical marginal seats, to help see off Labour in the critical general election on May 7th.

The initiative, called the Young Republican UK Deployment plan, originally said that the plan was all about helping the Conservatives to beat Labour.

 As IBTimes reports "The Young Republican National Foundation's International Committee is organising a week-long trip for young GOP activists to campaign for David Cameron's Conservative Party in between sight-seeing and meetings with British politicians, activists and think-tankers."

 The groups' website declares "that while the Tories "have the most support nationwide, [a] clear majority isn't guaranteed... The identity of the next government and prime minister are far from certain." It says that the trip is a "unique opportunity to witness first-hand the 2015 General Election in the United Kingdom and to help our Conservative colleagues win."

 It is an embarassing admission on the part of the prime minister that his campaign is going badly. The latest Ashcroft polls show Labour significantly outperforming the Tories in many marginal seats, with the highest contact rates, and with undecided voters being more likely to lean Labour rather than Tory.

 They are primarily are expected to be canvassing in Enfield North, Aylesbury and Windsor, Tory and Royal country, but a small group may campaign aroung the country. The total cost of the all expenses paid trip is expected to be around several thousand $.

Labour to win 47/100 of the most marginal Tory seats

Today is the official start of postal voting for the 2015 general election. Here is a handy guide to how the battle is proceeding in the 100 most marginal Conservative held seats, according to constituency polling and in some cases the YouGov Nowcast:

North Warwickshire (Majority 0.1%): Labour GAIN
Camborne and Redruth (Majority 0.2%) Conservative HOLD
Thurrock (Majority 0.2%) UKIP GAIN
Hendon (Majority 0.2%) Labour GAIN
Oxford West and Abingdon (Majority 0.3%) Conservative HOLD
Cardiff North (Majority 0.4%) Labour GAIN
Sherwood (Majority 0.4%) Labour GAIN
Stockton South (Majority 0.7%) Labour GAIN
Broxtowe (Majority 0.7%) Labour GAIN
Lancaster and Fleetwood (Majority 0.7%) Labour GAIN
Truro and Falmouth (Majority 0.9%) Conservative HOLD
Newton Abbott (Majority 1.1%) Conservative HOLD
Amber Valley (Majority 1.2%) Labour GAIN
Waveney (Majority 1.5%) Labour GAIN
Wolverhampton South West (Majority 1.7%) Labour GAIN
Harrowgate and Knaresborough (Majority 2%) Conservative HOLD
Morecambe and Lunesdale (Majority 2%) Labour GAIN
Carlisle (Majority 2%) Labour GAIN
Stroud (Majority 2.2%) Labour GAIN
Weaver Vale (Majority 2.3%) Labour GAIN
Lincoln (Majority 2.3% Labour GAIN
Watford (Majority 2.6%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (Majority 2.6%) Labour GAIN
Dewsbury (Majority 2.8%) Labour GAIN
Warrington South (Majority 3%) Labour GAIN
Bedord (Majority 3%) Labour GAIN
Brighton Kemptown (Majority 3.1%) Labour GAIN
Pudsey (Majority 3.4%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Corby (Majority 3.5%) Labour GAIN
Montgomeryshire (Majority 3.5%) Conservative HOLD
Brentford and Isleworth (Majority 3.6%) Labour GAIN
Hove (Majority 3.6%) Labour GAIN
Enfield North (Majority 3.8%) Labour GAIN
Hastings and Rye (Majority 4%) Labour GAIN
St Albans (Majority 4.2%) Conservative HOLD
Ipswich (Majority 4.4%)  Labour GAIN
Halesowen and Bowley Regis (Majority 4.6%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Nuneaton (Majority 4.9%) Labour GAIN
Gloucester (Majority 4.8%) Conservative HOLD
Northampton North (Majority 4.8%) Labour GAIN
Bury North (Majority 5%) Labour GAIN
Kingswood (Majority 5.2%) Conservative HOLD
Weston Super-Mare (Majority 5.2%) Conservative HOLD
Hereford and South Hertfordshire (Majority 5.2%) Conservative HOLD
Wyre Forest (Majority 5.2%) Conservative HOLD
Erewash (Majority 5.3%) Labour GAIN
Blackpool North and Clevelys (Majority 5.3%) Conservative HOLD
West Devon and Torridge (Majority 5.4%) Conservative HOLD
Winchester (Majority 5.4%) Conservative HOLD
City of Chester (Majority 5.5%) Labour GAIN
Croydon Central (Majority 5.8%) Labour GAIN
Worcester (Majority 6.1%) Conservative HOLD
Keighley (Majority 6.2%) Labour GAIN
Wirral West (Majority 6.4%) Labour GAIN
South East Cornwall (Majority 6.6%) Conservative HOLD
Bristol North West (Majority 6.5%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
West Dorset (Majority 6.6%) Conservative HOLD
Richmond Park (Majority 6.9%) Conservative HOLD
York Outer (Majority 6.9% Conservative HOLD
Cannock Chase (Majority 7%) Labour GAIN
Loughborough (Majority 7.1%) Conservative HOLD
Harrow East (Majority 7.1%) Labour GAIN
Warwick and Leamington (Majority 7.2%) Conservative HOLD
South Swindon (Majority 7.5%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Ealing Central and Acton (Majority 7.9%) Labour GAIN
Pendle (Majority 8%) Conservative HOLD
Stevenage (Majority 8%) Labour GAIN
Elmet and Rothwell (Majority 8.1%) Conservative HOLD
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (Majority 8.5%) Conservative HOLD
Romsey and Southampton North (Majority 8.5%) Conservative HOLD
Colne Valley (Majority 8.7%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Vale of Glamorgan (Majority 8.9%) Conservative HOLD
Dumfriessshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale (Majority 9.1%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Norwich North (Majority 9.2%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Bosworth (Majority 9.3%) Conservative HOLD
High Peak (Majority 9.5%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Chelmsford (Majority 9.6%) Conservative HOLD
Milton Keynes South (Majority 9.6%) LABOUR GAIN
Rossendale and Darwen (Majority 9.6%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Cleethorpes (Majority 9.6%) Conservative HOLD
North East Somerset (Majority 9.8%) Conservative HOLD
Great Yarmouth (Majority 9.9%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Dudley South (Majority 10.1%) Conservative HOLD
Totnes (Majority 10.2%) Conservative HOLD
South East Cambridgeshire (Majority 10.3%) Conservative HOLD
Dover (Majority 10.5%) Conservative HOLD
South Ribble (Majority 10.8%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Peterborough (Majority 10.8%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Stafford (Majority 10.9%) Conservative HOLD
Stourbridge (Majority 10.9%) Conservative HOLD
Harlow (Majority 11.2%) Conservative HOLD
Aberconwy (Majority 11.5%) Conservative HOLD
Ilford North (Majority 11.5%) Conservative HOLD
Preseli Pembrokeshire (Majority 11.6%) Conservative HOLD
Tewksebury (Majority 11.7%) Conservative HOLD
Brigg and Goole (Majority 11.7%) Conservative HOLD
Crewe and Nantwich (Majority 11.8%) Labour GAIN
Maidstone and the Weald (Majority 12%) Conservative HOLD
Battersea (Majority 12%) Conservative HOLD
Canterbury (Majority 12.3%)Conservative HOLD

So, as you can see, Labour look set to win 47 Tory seats. If Labour was set to win the 15 seats it should from the Lib Dems, it would end up with 62 gains and on 319 seats. However, the Scottish picture somewhat complicates this picture, and whatever happens, it looks like a tight race for 1st place between Labour and the Tories is what we are set for.

Tories outraising Labour in key marginals

The above table shows how much each party has raised from private donations in key marginal seats. As you can see, the Tories are clearly outraising Labour in marginal seats such as Sherwood, Dorset, Solihull, Hampstead and Kilburn, and others. Labour also has raised nothing in many more seats than the Tories.

Will this make the difference for them, or will Labour's superior ground campaign make up for it?

Only one month left until the election-It remains too close to call.

There is exactly one month left until the most exciting election in over 20 years. Labour and the Tories are neck and neck In the polls, but the surge in support for smaller parties has made the election completely unpredictable and far too close to call. The picture above is the YouGov nowcast, which states that the Tories are currently 1% ahead of Labour, and that the election is far too close to call at the moment.

The share of the vote in the poll represents a swing to Labour of 3.5% since the last general election. However, due to the Labour collapse in Scotland, which has itself knocked off at least 1-2% from the Labour vote share overall, the overall swing is expected to be around 5%, which would result in a very narrow Labour lead on seats if repeated on election day.

Neither Labour or the Tories will be particularly dissatisfied about the current position, because both of the parties know that even a small swing in either of their direction will result in a victory for them. It is really as tight as that. Labour seems to be doing better in the target and marginal seats rather than nationally elsewhere or in safe seats, which will give the party a lot of confidence. It is possible that a 1992 style crossover may occur and the Tories might suddenly jump into a massive lead, but that scenario remains quite unlikely. It looks as if Labour and the Tories will remain deadlocked until election day, as they have been for most of the past year, and Labour may edge ahead very narrowly on seats due to its performance in the marginal seats.

So, we have talked about Labour and the Tories, and the expectations both parties have. What about the smaller parties who have seen a surge during this parliament, UKIP and the Greens? Below is a list of some of the hopes and expectations of the smaller parties for the election.

 

UKIP Hopes

Boston and Skegness represents the best chance that UKIP have of electing an MP outside their heartlands in Kent and Essex. On the basis of the current YouGov Nowcast, which uses 150,000 interviews nationwide includng interviews within the constituency to make its predictions, the seat is currently far too close to call.  This is good news for UKIP and bad news for the Tories-UKIP came 4th with just under 10% of the vote last time, with the Tories 1st on just under 50%. The BNP vote was also quite high, which will encourage UKIP as it tends to mop up the BNP vote.

 

Another largely white working class constituency, but this time one with a largely Labour rather than Tory constituency, Great Grimsby is number 2 on the national target list UKIP have drawn up for this election. Austin Mitchell was the MP and the new Labour candidate, Melanie Onn, has some work to do if she wishes to hold off UKIP. UKIP won the popular vote her by a whopping 15% in this constituency at the European elections and have made strong local gains, but I would back Labour to hold on due to its superior ground campaign which has seen it pour in resources from nearby safe Labour and Tory seats, a feat which the UKIP campaign simply cannot match.

Thurrock is in an area o the country where UKIP can be said to have a "Stronghold", the East of England region. At the last election, Labour collapsed in this region, turning it into a virtual one party state. The Lib Dems have never really had a presence here either, which meant that there would obviously be room for an insurgent party to blossom, and there you have UKIP. The race looks incredibly tight, but UKIP are the favourites to win here, in yet another deprived white working class seat with a strong resentment toward the Westminster establishment parties.

 

South Thanet needs no introduction. YouGov declined to do a constituency estimate here due to "Hyperlocal factors", i.e the presence of Nigel Farage as the UKIP candidate. A poll here recently by Comres suggested a tough three way fight, with Labour, the Tories and UKIP all 1% within each other. Expect this to be probably one of the most exciting seats on election night.

 

 

 

Green Hopes

 

Norwich South is an area long targeted by the Green Party. As it is, they look unlikely to win here, because Labour seems to have benefited most from a collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats. The Greens will probably aim to come 2nd and set themselves up for a challenge next time, as they will then be able to present themselves as the clear alternative to an (Perhaps) unpopular Labour government. The seat is a liberal left-wing seat with many students, and can therefore swing very heavily between different parties, as it did in 2010 when the Lib Dems ousted former home secretary Charles Clarke here.

 

 

 

Bristol West is another major target for the Green Party. The party has done fairly well here on a local level, picking up a few councillors, and has capitalised on the collapse of what used to be a sizeable liberal democrat vote here. However, the Lib Dem incumbent seems to have squeezed enough Tory votes to put him into contention with Labour, who are currently favourites to win in Bristol West, so it looks likely that the Greens will end up 3rd rather than 1st in Bristol West anyway.

 

 

 

 

How Britain voted in 2010-And how that has changed.

How Britain voted in 2010 (Demographically)-and how that has changed (Source: Various YouGov polls, The politico guide to the 2015 general election by Iain Dale and other authors)

All voters: Con 37%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 23%, UKIP 4%, BNP 1%, Green 1%, other 4%. Lab-Con swing of 5%, 65% turnout
Implied by polls this time: Lab 34% (+4%), Con 34% (-3), UKIP 14%(+10) Green 5%(+4), Lib Dem 8%(-15), Others 5%, Con-Lab swing of 3.5%, implied turnout ~70%

18-24: Con 30%, Labour 31%, Lib Dem 30%, others 9%
Implied by polling: Lab 32%(+1), Green 24%(+18), Con 24%(-6), UKIP 10%(+9), Lib Dem 5%(-25), others 13%

65+: Con 44%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 16%, others 9%
Implied by polling: Con 39%(-5), Lab 28%(-3), UKIP 19%(+14), Lib Dem 6%(-10), others 8%

ABC1 (White collar, upper class, upper middle class): Con 39%, Labour 27%, Lib Dem 27%, others 7%
Implied by polling: Con 37%(-2) Labour 29%(+2), UKIP 12%(+11%), Green 7%(+7), Lib Dem 10%(-17), others 5%

C2DE (Blue collar, working class, lower midde class): Labour 35%, Con 35%, Lib Dem 20%, others 10%
Implied by polling: Lab 37%(+2), Con 30%(-6), UKIP 16%(+14), Lib dem 7%(-13), Green 5%(+5), others 5%

Homeowners: Con 45%, Lab 24%, Lib Dem 21%, others 11%
Implied by polling: Con 42%(-3), Lab 25%(+1), UKIP 13%(+12), Lib Dem 7%(-14), Green 7%(+6), others 6%

Social renter: Con 24%, Lab 47%, Lib Dem 19%, other 11%
Implied by polls: Con 20%(-4), Lab 45%(-2), UKIP 18%(+16), Green 5%(+5), Lib Dem 6%(-13), others 6%

Region by region breakdown of votes:

England as a whole:
Conservative: 297 seats (+91 seats compared to 2005)
39.5% (+4%)
Labour: 191 seats (-87)
28% (-7.4%)
Lib Dem: 43 seats (-4)
24.2% (+1.3%)
Other: 2 seats (NC)
8.2% (+2.3%)

Scotland
Conservative: 1 seat (NC)
16.7% (+1%)
Labour: 41 seats (+1)
42.0% (+3%)
Lib Dem: 11 seats (NC)
18.9% (-3.7%)
SNP: 6 seats (NC)
19.9% (+2.3%)

Wales
Conservative: 8 seats (+5)
26.1% (+4.7%)
Labour: 26 seats (-4)
36.2% (-6.5%)
Lib Dem: 3 seats (-1)
20.1% (+1.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (+1)
11.3% (-1.3)

Northern Ireland:
Democratic Unionist Party (Conservative aligned) 8 seats (-1)
25.0% (-8.7%)
Sinn Fein: 5 seats (NC)
25.5% (+1.2%)
Social Democratic (Labour aligned) 3 seats (NC)
16.5% (-1.0%)
Alliance Party (Liberal Democrat aligned) 1 seat (+1)
6.3% (+2.4%)

WITHIN ENGLAND:
North East
Conservative: 2 seats (+1)
23.7% (+4.2%)
Labour: 25 seats (-2)
43.6% (-9.3%)
Lib Dems: 2 seats (+1)
23.6% (+0.2%)

North West
Conservative: 22 seats (+12)
31.7% (+3.0%)
Labour: 47 seats (-13)
39.4% (-5.7%)
Lib Dem: 6 seats (+1)
21.6% (+0.3%)

Yorkshire and the Humber
Conservative: 19 seats (+10)
32.8% (+3.7%)
Labour: 32 seats (-9)
34.4% (-9.2%)
Lib Dem: 3 seats (-1)
22.9% (+2.3%)

East Midlands
Conservative: 31 seats (+12)
41.2% (+4.1%)
Labour: 15 seats (-11)
29.8% (-9.2%)
Lib Dems: 0 seats (-1)
20.8% (+2.4%)

West Midlands
Conservative: 33 seats (+15)
39.5% (+4.5%)
Labour: 24 seats (-14)
30.6% (-8.1%)
Lib Dem: 2 seats (NC)
20.5% (+1.9%)

East of England
Conservative: 52 seats (+10)
47.1% (+3.8%)
Labour: 2 seats (-11)
19.6% (-10.2%)
Lib Dem: 4 seats (+1)
24.1% (+2.2%)

London
Conservative: 28 seats (+7)
34.5% (+2.6%)
Labour: 38 seats (-6)
36.6% (-2.3%)
Lib Dems: 7 seats (NC)
22.1% (+0.2%)

South East
Conservative: 74 seats (+13)
49.3% (+4.4%)
Labour: 4 seats (-13)
16.2% (-8.1%)
Lib Dem: 4 seats (-2)
26.2% (+.0.8%)
Other: 2 seats (+2)
8.2% (+3.0)

South West
Conservative: 36 seats (+11)
42.8% (+4.2%)
Labour: 4 seats (-8)
15.4% (-7.4%)
Lib Dems: 15 seats (-3)
34.7% (+2.2%)