The speech that David Cameron made today was the speech of a man who is confident of victory......but is it even possible?

David Cameron made a very powerful speech today..but will it be enough?

The speech made today by the Prime Minister at the Conservative Party Conference was the speech of a man who thinks he is destined for electoral success. It was bold, passionate, and powerful. But how will this speech change the electoral landscape, and is it really possible for the Tory Party to win a majority in 2015?

First of all, let us examine the speech and the policy pledges made. David Cameron has pledged to protect the National Health Service- This is a repeat of his policy from the 2010 General Election, and is designed to calm fears from many swing voters about how the Tories would manage the NHS. It is also intended to neutralise Ed Miliband and the Labour Party lead over the NHS, as Ed Miliband has decided that Labour would make the NHS the main issue of the election campaign. Secondly, the tax-cutting policy. This has very broad appeal across the electorate, and in particular for the Middle English voters that have gone to Labour since 2010 or have become undecided. David Cameron is hoping to win back these voters so that the Tories can get back up to 34/35% of the vote.

First of all, I have some good news for the Prime Minister. Twice as many people trust the Tories with the deficit than they do Labour. David Cameron has an overwhelming lead over Ed Miliband as to who would be the best Prime Minister (Although the voters prefer a Labour Government to a Tory Government.) The Government is also seen as being more competent than Labour in general, although many still see the Tories as being the "Nasty Party."

However, this is where the bad news comes in. If the Tories want to win a majority, they have to go beyond what they did at the last election. They have to open up an 8 or 9 point lead over the Labour Party. This is a very difficult task, for many reasons. Firstly, because so many Tory voters have defected to UKIP, the task for David Cameron has become extremely difficult. He needs to win all of these voters back to have any chance of taking the lead- and at the moment, it looks very unlikely. Perhaps some may defect back to the Tories, but some will stay with UKIP at the General Election, as indicated by pollling. Another problem that David Cameron has is the current electoral strength of the Labour Party. To stop losing seats to Labour and start gaining them, the Tories need to have a lead of 8%. Currently, they trail by 5%, having lost significant numbers of votes to UKIP.. A turnaround of 12 points would be required just for the Tories to acheive a favourable hung parliament, and a swing of at least 12.5 or 13 points would be needed for David Cameron to get his majority. At this stage, this looks quite unlikely. Such a swing has happened in occasions throughout history-possibly most notably in 1992, but such a turnaround looks incredibly unlikely at this stage, and especially in a 4 party system, and at least half of the swing in 1992 could be attributed to pollster error.

What the Tories hope is that Ed Miliband's poor personal ratings will catch up with him at some point. There is a possibility that this could happen, but could it happens on a scale large enough for David Cameron to win a majority? I doubt it. Firstly, because Gordon Brown was incredibly unpopular too amongst core Labour voters-and they turned up to vote for him in 2010. These voters are not going anywhere. Secondly, the Lib Dem defectors to Labour have a much higher opinion of Ed Miliband than other Labour voters or the electorate in general. This is the major reason as to why Labour remain in the lead-a significant % of Lib Dem 2010 voters say they will vote Labour in 2015.

As long as this group stays as loyal to Labour as it is now, Labour will remain above 35%, and it will be impossible for the Tories to either acheive a hung parliament or to win the election. Another major issue concerns UKIP voters. The assumption from the Tories is that they are simply "Tories on holiday" and that they will return at the General Election. This assumption simply does not hold up to scrutiny. Lord Ashcroft polling found that UKIP voters preferred Cameron by only 27-23, and that 29% of UKIP voters would actually like a Labour Government, more than the number of those who said they would prefer a Tory Government! David Cameron needs to make sure that he reaches out to these voters and tries to win them over, rather than simply assuming that they will "Come home" to their former party.

The Tories also often claim that the electoral system is "Biased" against them. At first glance, it may seem that it is so. Labour can win a majority (Theoretically) with a 1% deficit, whilst the Tories can win a majority only if they are at least 8.5% ahead. However, taking a closer look at the electoral dynamic, it is clear that this is not the case. There are three major reasons as to why Labour's vote is so more efficient than that of the Tories. Firstly, because Labour Party voters tend not to turn out where it doesn't matter (In safe seats) but turn up in much larger numbers in close contests in marginal seats. This is why, despite trailing by 0.5% in England, Tony Blair managed to win 82 more seats than the Tories in the 2005 General Election. The second reason is because the Tory vote is very heavily concentrated in areas where they are already strong-in this case in safe seats in the South-West and South-East of England. There is a saying: When Labour win a seat, they win it by 1000 votes, when the Tories win a seat, they win it by 10,000. The Conservative Party has failed to broaden its appeal in Scotland, the North of England, and Wales, and must seek to do this if it wishes to win a majority next time. The 3rd major reason is tactical voting. Most current Liberal Democrat seats tend to be seats that they had won from the Tories in the 1997 Tony Blair landslide, through massive anti-Tory tactical voting. In areas where the contest is between Liberal Democrats and the Tories, Labour voters in the past have tended to switch to the Lib Dems to "Keep the Tories out." There is some evidence that as a result of the Lib Dem-Tory coalition, that this tactical alliance may be weakening, which would help the Tory Party-but what this means for next year is yet to be seen.

Due to the factors outlined above, it is my conclusion that David Cameron faces a very long and hard road ahead. All of the pollsters and bookies have Ed Miliband as the favourite to become PM, and many Tories themselves have admitted that it is unlikely that they will win next year. The next 8 months shall be the most crucial in this parliament-let's see what the people decide in May next year.

The 5 Tory MPs most likely to defect to UKIP

Carswell's (Above Left) defection may inspire others to do the same.

I am sure that many people reading this post will be very interested in the recent defection of Douglas Carswell MP to UKIP. Carswell's defection shook the political establishment, and, in the event of a successful By-Election victory, he is unlikely to be the last.

This post lists the top 5 Tory MPs who are likely to defect to UKIP, in my view, I must stress. I have used a wide range of data to come to these conclusions, including the bookies, behaviour of potential defectors in parliament, constituency demographics, local election results, and the so-called "UKIP potential" of their constituency, calculated by the use of the book "Revolt on the Right", which used a range of data and evidence to compile a list of the most UKIP friendly seats.

1: Chris Kelly (Member for Dudley South)


If Douglas Carswell's defection is anything to go by, then it is likely that we will soon see another defection in the shape of Chris Kelly. Chris Kelly has long been rumoured to be a likely switcher, and today, stories in the Daily Mail and Conservative Home appeared to link him strongly to defection. Dudley South is one of UKIP's best hopes in 2015, being the 13th most UKIP friendly Tory held seat, and is likely to become a 3 way marginal next time. 40% of people in the seat have no formal qualifications, well above the 23% national average. The seat has a large "Left behind" demographic which UKIP have skillfully exploited. Indeed, Labour strategists in the area have indicated that they are bracing themselves for a very tough battle in a constituency that is a must-win for Labour if they want to form a Government next year.

The MP, Chris Kelly, is retiring, but it is possible that he will defect to sit as a UKIP MP for the last 8 months of his political career, and to campaign with his successor as UKIP's candidate. Expect a very tight race in Dudley South if this happens. Kelly's record suggests that there is a chance of this happening-he is one of the most rebellious Tory MPs in the Commons.

2:) Peter Bone (Member for Wellingborough)
Peter Bone is regarded as one of the most rebellious and determined Tory backbenchers-and has been rebuked many times by Conservative Home, the official propaganda machine of CCHQ. He is one of the MPs most fiercely opposed to David Cameron's attempts to give the party a better image, being a firm opponent of abortion and a denier of climate change.

Mr Bone was voted off the 1922 Commitee (Conservative Backbencher NEC) by the modernising "301 Group", who planning a coup to replace Bone and other Tory MPs who they considered to be backwards and regressive. The reformers argued that the 1922 Committee was "run by a group of mostly cantankerous old farts who do little to further right-wing ideas" and needed to campaign on issues other than EU membership and their objections to House of Lords reform, since it was not good for the "Modern" image the Tories tried to present to the electorate.

Bone is also a member of the Cornerstone Group, known for its pro-UKIP stance, and a group infamous for its Right-Wing, Socially Conservative, anti-EU rules. Wellingborough is the 70th most UKIP friendly Tory seat-it is in an area of the East Midlands where UKIP have been doing quite well in recent European Elections, and will be looking to build on that record.

3:) Bernard Jenkin (Member for Harwich and North Essex)
You would probably be quite surprised to know that I have included Jenkin on this list, if you had any idea of his background. He served in the Shadow Cabinet of the Tory Party under Michael Howard, and was Vice-Chair of the Tory Party before he was sacked in 2006.

Looking at the fact that he has had such an illustrious career on the Tory front benches, it may seem surprising that such a figure would choose to defect. However, take a look closer and a picture of discontent is revealed. Jenkin is a very rebellious Tory MP: he is referred to as rebelling "Quite often" against his party on They Work for You. Jenkin is a determined Eurosceptic, and has been quietly sitting on the backbenches whilst Cameron has attempted to modernise his party and drag it toward the Centre Ground. Jenkin has long been rumoured to have been courted by UKIP, and the fact that he is an MP in Essex, an area where UKIP polled 40-50% of the vote in many areas at the Local Elections this year, may persuade him to jump ship, if, as expected, Douglas Carswell wins by a big margin in the Clacton By-Election on October 9th. It would be a major blow to the Tories and a slight surprise-but don't rule it out at all.

4:) Jacob Mogg ( Member for North East Somerset)
Mogg is not your traditional UKIP Politician, being very independently wealthy and coming from an area that is very wealthy itself. North East Somerset itself is very strongly Conservative, and Mogg is a commited Eurosceptic. This is an area where UKIP can be expected to poll well in 2015, despite it not being the most demographically favourable area for them.

Writing in the Daily Telegraph in May 2013, Mogg asked whether it was time to make a “big open and comprehensive offer” to UKIP. He said collaboration would be straightforward as policies were similar on the vast majoriy of issues, and he said that most Tories would like Nigel Farage to become the Deputy PM. His remarks infuriated the leadership, whilst UKIP said it was against any sort of arrangement. Paul Goodman, the editor of Conservative Home, said he believed a short-term pact was both impractical and undesirable, and did not believe that it would work.

Mogg has long sought an alliance with UKIP. He has long been open about the prospect of this, and called for it during the BBC broadcast of the 2014 Local Elections. Mogg can be regarded as a sort of Tony Benn of the Right-he is well respected by many Labour as well as Tory politicians, is very high-profile and popular in his constituency, and is a very principled Eurosceptic. Notably, he was silent on Douglas Carswell's defection when many of his fellow Tory Eurosceptics came out and openly condemned the defection. The question is, will he gamble and join UKIP, or will he play it safe and try to negotiate an individual pact with them? The choice is difficult.

5:) George Eustice (Member for Camborne and Redruth)
Cornwall has become one of UKIP's strongest areas in recent years, and Camborne and Redruth one of UKIP's strongest areas in Cornwall. The seat is the 26th most UKIP friendly Tory seat, and has a large "Left behind" demographic, of voters who have become disillusioned with both the Tories and Lib Dems. We can expect UKIP to put up a strong challenge here in 2015.

Eustice himself is a known Eurosceptic, and according to the bookies, is one of the favourites to jump ship. The UKIP vote has been increasing in the area, and he, like many others, may prefer to wait for the Clacton result before making his move.

We must not be reluctant to condemn ISIS

Yazidi refugees sheltering in the Iraqi Mountains


 Hello everybody. This is my first blog post in months-I've had persistent computer issues so I haven't been able to post, but I'm back now!

I want to share an opinion on the ongoing situation in Iraq. As I write, innocent civilians are being killed at the hands of the terror group known as ISIS.

Last week, I attended a Pro-Palestine protest in Manchester. Me and a few hundred other protesters stood next to a statue of Queen Elizabeth in the City Centre, waving flags and chanting "Free Palestine!". At the time it seemed like a righteous cause. Fellow Muslims were being killed in the Palestinian Territories and we were, for a while, the custodians of justice, speaking up for those who have no voice.

Fast forward a week later, and ISIS is doing the same thing, if not worse, to Iraqi's. Iraqi people have suffered greatly over the years-500,000 were killed in the aftermath of the Iraq war- so you would assume that there would be anti-ISIS rallies all over Manchester and indeed the world, in response to the brutal killing of thousands of men, women, and children, Muslim, Christian, and Yazidi, as well as Kurds.

But, as I write this, I have yet to see a single anti-ISIS rally. I have yet to see a single Muslim or non-Muslim politician here speak out strongly against the brutal ISIS assault. Instead, everybody seems to be readily criticising Israel whilst forgetting that crimes of a much greater gravity are being commited in Iraq.

This is unnaceptable and completely wrong. Surely, simply because it is fellow Muslims killing other Muslims rather than "The Jews" killing Muslims, the suffering endured by the Iraqi's should not be trivialised in comparison to the mass outcry over the deaths of Palestinians?

Considering this, it is understandable that our opponents have accused us of Anti-Semitism. In sheer numbers, ISIS is already reported to have killed tens of thousands of people in the last few weeks, commited genocide against Shia Muslims and Christians, and today besieged Yazidi villages, raped Yazidi women, and summarily executed men. In the last month, the Israeli operation in the Gaza Strip has led to the deaths of slightly under 2000 Palestinians. Whilst every single death in Palestine is completely deplorable, surely those who condemn the Israeli action (As I do) must condemn in equally strong terms the brutal massacres of innocent children in Iraq at the hands of ISIS?


The Left in particular seems to be guilty of hypocricy in this way, although it is not exclusive: Politicians such as Saeeda Warsi, resigning because she reportedly saw the conflict in Gaza as "Morally reprehensible", having kept silent over the conflict in Syria, are part of the problem rather than solution. The fact, however, remains that the majority of those criticising Israel but refusing to speak out against Syrian and ISIS war crimes are those on the Left.

Surely, to retain any credibility, Muslim politicians and politicians on the Left must condemn the killing of Iraqi civilians just as strongly as Palestinians?

I completely understand why the Gaza conflict arouses passions as no other conflict does: as a Muslim the conflict is close to my heart too, but surely, the same holds true for Iraqi Muslims?

Slightly over 25 years ago, Saddam Hussein's Al-Anfal campaign concluded, having massacred nearly 200,000 Kurdish and Yazidi men, women, and children. Politicians of the Left were weak and unwilling to condemn the brutal genocide at that time, whilst those of the Right simply used the situation to play politics.  Let's not repeat the same mistake with ISIS.

Farage-Clegg debate stokes up the European Election campaign

 

The announcement that the Farage-Clegg debate will now take place on BBC Two on the 2nd of April has stoked up the European Election campaign and fired up Party machinery for all of the respective political parties. 

For both leaders the mere fact that this is taking place is a positive and will reinforce both their positions. Clegg, I’d suggest, has most to gain if only because he starts at a much lower point. He will be able to regain support that he has lost to Labour and strengthen his own position as party leader, which has been looking shaky.

The whole strategy of the yellows is to portray themselves as the party that is unequivocally committed to staying in the EU, and the fact of the debate with its associated coverage will reinforce that. This is going to be a debate between the most pro-EU and the most anti-EU party leaders.

For Farage this allows him to operate on a wider scale and put a marker down for the GE2015. If he can take part in this event it is going to be much harder excluding him at the General Election. The fury that would commence from the electorate would be far too much of a risk for the other parties, close to a General Election.

Who’ll win? It actually doesn’t matter for both will be declared victory by their respective audiences.

On paper, at least, Clegg should be the most accomplished based on his PMQ and Dave outings. He can think on his feet, is intelligent, somewhat charimatic, and hold his own. He’s also less likely than Farage to get rattled and lose his temper.
My guess is that the Tories will be secretly cheering Clegg on in the hope that he might burst the UKIP bubble. Labour will implicitly be hoping that Clegg does poorly, but also that Farage does not do spectacularly either.

Looking forward to the 2016 US Presidential elections

Sorry for the long delay since the last post. I have not had access to a Laptop as of late and so was unable to post. The important thing is that I am here now!

My strategy has been to rule out Chris Christie, even before his bridge problems. Some in the Republican Party have never forgiven him for his hug of President Obama during Hurricane Sandy and that’s influenced my thinking. He is not as popular amongst certain sections of the Republican party as it may seem to the outside world, and that could make the difference.

But on who to back, my dark horse is Rand Paul, because of his socially Liberal views and because the Libertarian wing of the Republicans has gotten a lot stronger in recent times, since the Snowden leaks.

The favourite for the Republican nomination is Marco Rubio, as the Senator for the crucial state of Florida, “The presidential candidate who won Florida has won the general election in 12 of the last 13 presidential elections (the sole exception to this rule over the 48 years from 1964 to 2012 was 1992, when Bill Clinton lost the state but won the presidency.)” That might be the reason he ends up winning the nomination, it makes winning Florida in 2016 a lot easier and would give the Republicans an immediate advantage in the race for the white house.

The name Jeb Bush is being mentioned more and more.  I’m not going to rehearse the arguments of why his surname is a bar to him being the nominee/President. Whilst I do think that he has a chance,  I can understand why people may prefer to dismiss him as a potential candidate straight away. He is a former two term Governor of Florida, which as noted with Marco Rubio makes his nomination useful in trying to win Florida in 2016, but some of his views are not in line with traditional Republican party thinking. That may or may not prove to be a disadvantage come nomination time.

The Democratic Party Nominee

There’s only one person I can see winning the nomination for Democratic Party and that’s Hillary Clinton. I know a lot of people (including me) said exactly the same about 2008, but she was up against Barack Obama, but looking at the list of other potential candidates, there is no Barack Obama de nos jours. If there’s going to be a stop Hillary Clinton, then perhaps Vice-President Joe Biden. Other than that, my strategy is to dismiss anyone who isn’t Hillary Clinton. The potential allure of having Bill Clinton back in the white house (Although this time as First Man) would serve her well in an election.

The Winning Party in 2016

 I’m loathe to back the Republicans, for a couple of reasons, the demographics of America are trending against the party, and the in only one of the last six Presidential Elections, has the Republican candidate won the popular vote, that was George W Bush in 2004. Although in the six elections between 1968 and 1988, the Democratic Candidate only won the popular vote in one Presidential Election.
 I can see only one winner in 2016 and that would be the Democrats, and especially so if Hilary Clinton runs. Still, throwing a spanner into the works and going for an unconventional candidate such as Rand Paul may help the Republicans. We shall have to wait and see.

Iain Dale prediction: Liberal Democrats to lose 27 seats, but hold 30 in 2015.

It is a brave man who fifteen months before a general election seeks to predict the outcome in all the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending but that is what Ian Dale has done recently.

It provoked quite a discussion on Twitter and I thought that anyone reading this blog might like to cast their eyes over it and give their verdicts.
To my mind the element that Iain has not factored in is the organisational state of the local LD parties in all the seats. As we see in local by-election after local by-election the yellows have been doing okay in areas where they have the MP.

Iain also thinks that Eastleigh will be a CON gain. I’m not so sure. What last year’s by-election showed was the weakness of the local Tory party there. UKIP came second and they will be able to present themselves as the challenger.


INVERNESS, NAIRN, BADENOCH & STRATHSPEY
Danny Alexander
Majority: 8,765 over Labour
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD

LEWES
Norman Baker
Maj: 7,647
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
If Labour takes enough votes from the LibDems it could let the Conservative in, and Lewes used to be a safe Tory seat. Baker’s local popularity should see him through but with a much smaller majority.

BERWICK UPON TWEED
Sir Alan Beith (retiring – Julie Pörksen selected)
Maj: 2,690 over the Conservatives
Prediction: PROBABLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
The Conservative candidate Anne Marie Trevelyan stood in 2010 and if her vote holds up, she only needs Labour to take a small proportion of the LibDem vote. Beith’s incumbency will also disappear.

BURNLEY
Gordon Birtwhistle
Maj: 1,818 over Labour
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
Birtwhistle is a straight talking northerner and speaks out against what he views as wishy washy Liberalism. He’s very popular but it would be a major shock if he held on to the seat he snatched from Labour in 2010.

CARSHALTON & WALLINGTON
Tom Brake
Maj: 5.260 over the Conservatives
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Somewhat charismatically challenged Brake is nevertheless a very good constituency MP and this could seem him through, but the Labour vote here is bound to recover. However, I’d say this was a 50/50 prediction and could easily go the other way. This would be the sixth time Brake has fought the seat and that counts for a lot.

MID DORSET & NORTH POOLE
Annette Brooke (retiring – Vikki Slade selected)
Maj: 269
Prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN
It was a shock this seat didn’t go Tory last time. With Annette Brooke standing down the LibDems will have to perform miracles to keep this seat.

TAUNTON DEANE
Jeremy Browne
Maj: 3,993 over the Conservatives
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN – 50/50
Boundary changes last time increased Browne’s majority from just over 500. I don’t know how popular he is locally. Seen as a very good minister it was a shock when he was sacked by Clegg. Might he stand down? I’d say this was a 50/50 call.

GORDON
Sir Malcolm Bruce (retiring – Christine Jardine selected
Maj: 6,748 over the SNP
Prediction: 100% LIBDEM HOLD
SUTTON & CHEAM
Paul Burstow
Maj: 1,608
Prediction: PROBABLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
The Labour vote has halved to 7.7% since 1997 and will inevitably rise in 2015. Paul Burstow is standing again and incumbency could play a vital role if he is to retain his seat, but if the Tory vote holds up, he may have a problem.

SOLIHULL
Lorely Burt
Maj: 175
Prediction: CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Lorely Burt did very well to hang onto her seat last time (she won it in 2005 with a majority of 279) and confounded all expectations. The Labour vote has gone down from 25% to 8% and if Labour takes just a thousand votes from the LibDem the Conservatives will win a seat many think they should never have lost.

TWICKENHAM
Vince Cable
Maj: 12,140
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD

NORTH EAST FIFE
Sir Menzies Campbell (retiring)
Maj: 9.348
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
The Conservatives will be targeting this seat but it’s a remote hope for them. The new LibDem candidate may suffer a dent in their majority but unless Ming Campbell’s personal vote is more than the norm, this seat should stay Liberal Democrat.

ORKNEY & SHETLAND
Alistair Carmichael
Maj: 9,928
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
None of the other parties come close, with the LibDems winning 62% of the vote in 2010. Jo Grimond’s legacy is safe!

SHEFFIELD HALLAM
Nick Clegg
Maj: 15,284
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
This used to be a Tory seat, but it would take a political earthquake for them to take it off Nick Clegg. Interestingly the Labour vote has started to rise, but not enough to cause the LibDems to panic.

EDINBURGH WEST
Michael Crockart
Maj: 3,803
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
This seat went LibDem in 1997 and although the LibDem majority plummeted by 10,000 last time it is difficult to see them losing. Prior to 1997 it was a Tory seat but last time Labour beat the Tories into second place. A Labour victory is not impossible to imagine, but still rather unlikely.

KINGSTON & SURBITON
Edward Davey
Maj: 7,560
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
Ed Davey won this seat in 1997 with a wafer thin majority of 56, which rose to more than 15,000 in 2001. But since then the Conservative vote has been on the rise. Davey has only managed to win with such handsome majorities because he has squeezed the Labour vote from 23% down to 9%. If that trend reverses, the Conservatives could squeak it, but it’s highly unlikely.

WESTMORLAND & LONSDALE
Tim Farron
Maj: 12,264
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
Tim Farron has 60% of the vote and while the Conservatives held this seat as recently as 2001, they have zero chance of winning it back in 2015. Why? Because it’s a two horse race. In 1997 the Labour vote was more than 20%. In 2010 it was 2%.

HORNSEY & WOOD GREEN
Lynne Featherstone
Maj: 6,875
Prediction: POSSIBLE LIBDEM HOLD
Since 1997 Lynne Featherstone has built up the LibDem vote from 5,000 to 25,000 so as a constituency campaigner she is hard to beat. Meanwhile the Labour vote has declined from 31,000 to 18,000. Meanwhile the Conservatives have gone down to 21,000 to 9,000. This is a difficult one to call, but on balance Lynn Featherstone will probably retain the seat.

BATH
Don Foster (retiring)
Maj: 11,883
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
The Conservatives have been desperate to win this seat back since Chris Patten lost it in 1992, but it’s extremely unlikely to revert to the fold despite the fact that Don Foster is standing down.

ST IVES
Andrew George
Maj: 1,719
Prediction: POSSIBLE LIBDEM HOLD
The Tories got a 10.39% swing last time and took a huge chuck out of Andrew George’s 11,000 majority. This time George will be hoping UKIP’s vote reduces Tory potency. His incumbency and local popularity should see Andrew George home, but it may be a close call.

ST AUSTELL & NEWQUAY
Stephen Gilbert
Maj: 1,312
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
This seat could go either way. Labour are nowhere with only 7% of the vote. If UKIP does well in the South West, the LibDems win here, if they don’t, they won’t.

CHELTENHAM
Martin Horwood
Maj: 4.920
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
A Liberal Democrat seat since 1992, this is one which the Conservatives had expected to take back in both 2005 and 2010, but it wasn’t to be. The Labour vote has been squeezed to just 5%. Martin Horwood is extremely popular and will have built up a high personal vote. On a catastrophic night for the LibDems it’s easy to see Cheltenham falling, but not otherwise.

PORTSMOUTH SOUTH
Mike Hancock (deselected)
Maj: 5.200
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
This seat has never had a huge LibDem majority since it was won by Mike Hancock in 1997. It’s always ranged between three and six thousand. It’s difficult to assess the impact of the groping scandal, but on top of their national woes, it could be that the Tories win back what was once for them a safe seat. Hancock has failed to squeeze the Labour vote as much as some of his colleagues, and not so long ago they managed a healthy 25%. If they return to those levels the Tories will win.

NORTH DEVON
Nick Harvey
Maj: 5,821
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
Ever since this seat was wrested back from the Conservatives in 1992 pundits have predicted it would return to the Tories, but astute constituency campaigning by Nick Harvey has prevented this from happening. I don’t see this changing. This seat has a strong UKIP vote which inevitable depresses that of the Conservatives.

SOMERTON & FROME
David Heath (retiring)
Maj: 1,817
PREDICTION: PROBABLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
LibDem HQ must have bee tearing their hair out when David Heath announced his retirement as he stood the best prospect of retaining this seat. His current majority is the larges he has ever enjoyed, but that is largely because at the last election the UKIP vote doubled to nearly 2,000. If they do the same in 2015 they could deny the Conservatives a gain they thought they had in the bag last time.

BIRMINGHAM YARDLEY
John Hemming
Maj: 3,002
Prediction: PROBABLE LABOUR GAIN
Hemming is a maverick and I wouldn’t bet against him pulling off a surprise, but if Labour is to form a government it’s this kind of seat they need to take back.

CHIPPENHAM
Duncan Hames
Maj: 2,470
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Although is majority isn’t big, Duncan Hames has dug himself in since winning the seat in 2010 and will be difficult to shift. But the Tory candidate Michelle Donelan is a good campaigner. Yet again, her success depends on warding off UKIP and encouraging LibDems to vote Labour.

BERMONDSEY & OLD SOUTHWARK
Simon Hughes
Maj: 8,530
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
No comment needed.

EASTLEIGH
Mike Thornton
Maj: 1,771
Prediction: POSSIBLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
The Conservatives thought they would win this seat back at each of the last two general elections, but each time Chris Huhne pulled through. At the by-election they came third, with UKIP almost pipping the rather monochrome Mike Thornton. It’s highly unlikely UKIP’s vote will hold up so the outcome of this seat may depend on where UKIP’s voters put their cross. If enough of them return to the Conservative fold, it could be enough to see the Conservative home.

CHEADLE
Mark Hunter
Maj: 3,272
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
Apart from a narrow majority in 1997 of 33, the LibDems have had a majority of three or four thousand in this seat ever since. As long as the slightly resurgent Labour vote doesn’t gain too much traction, I think Mark Hunter will be safe.

CAMBRIDGE
Julian Huppert
Maj: 6,792
Prediction: POSSIBLE LIBDEM HOLD
If you look at the size of the LibDem majority here, Julian Huppert ought to be considered very safe, but this is a seat which swings with the wind, and if the wind is blowing towards Labour you can see it returning to them. It obviously has a high student vote and this may determine the outcome. However Huppert has been a strong performer both locally in Parliament and if anyone can hold this seat for the LibDems, he can.

ROSS, SKYE AND LOCHABER
Charles Kennedy
Maj: 13,070
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
Out on his own, and despite an invisible presence in this Parliament, there would need to be a miracle to shift Charles Kennedy.

NORTH NORFOLK
Norman Lamb
Maj: 11,626
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
Lamb’s majority was even bigger than the one he had over me in 2005. Although I think it will reduce in 2010 due to the crumbling LibDem local organisation and the resurgent North Norfolk Labour Party, he will still win handsomely.

YEOVIL
David Laws
Maj: 13,036
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD

MANCHESTER WITHINGTON
John Leech
Maj: 1,894
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
Although John leech trebled his majority last time, I fear the bell tolls for him unless UKIP can take a lot of votes from Labour.

EASTBOURNE
Stephen Lloyd
Maj: 3.435
Prediction: PROBABLE CONSERVATIVE GAIN
Won in 2010 from Nigel Wateson, Steohen Lloyd may hang on, but I’d expect the Labour vote to at least double at the expense of the LibDems, so yet again, a lot depends on how many votes the Tories lose to UKIP.

BERWICKSHIRE, ROXBURGH & SELKIRK
Michael Moore
Maj: 5,675
PREDICTION: LIBDEM HOLD
David Steel’s old seat – never been 100% safe, but it would be a major shock for the Conservatives to take this seat.

LEEDS NORTH WEST
Greg Mulholland
Maj: 9.103
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD
A Labour seat as recently as 2005, Labour has now slipped to third place. With a classic split opposition situation it would be a brave man who would vote against a third term for Greg Mulholland.

WELLS
Tessa Munt
Maj: 800
Prediction: PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE GAIN
The former seat of David Heathcoat-Amory Tessa Munt won Wells in 2010. The Tories will make every effort to regain it and will be devastated if they don’t pull it off.

SOUTHPORT
John Pugh
Maj: 6,024
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
It’s difficult to see this as anything other than a LibDem win.

ARGYLL & BUTE
Alan Reid
Maj: 3,431
Prediction: POSSIBLE LIBDEM HOLD
A four way marginal, this could go to any of the main parties. If the LibDems lose my guess is that it would go to Labour, even though they were in third place in 2010.

NORTH CORNWALL
Dan Rogerson
Maj: 2,981
Prediction: PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE GAIN
A seat where the LibDem majority has been on the slide in every election since 1997’s highpoint of more than 13,000. If UKIP hadn’t existed, the Conservatives would have won this seat in 2010. So the key question is whether they will eat further into the Conservative vote in 2015. If so, the LibDems will hang on. Otherwise this is a pretty safe bet for the Tories.

COLCHESTER
Sir Bob Russell
Maj: 6,982
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
Difficult to see anything other than another home run for Sir Bob!

TORBAY
Adrian Sanders
Maj: 4,078
Prediction: POSSIBLE LIBDEM HOLD
Regarded as a surefire Tory gain in 2010 it didn’t happen, and in all honesty Adrian Sanders has built up a string personal vote which may carry him through once again.

WEST ABERDEENSHIRE & KINCARDINE
Sir Robert Smith
Maj: 3.684
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
Although the LibDem majority was halved last time, it’s difficult to see anything other than another victory for Sir Robert Smith.

HAZEL GROVE
Andrew Stunell (retiring – Lisa Smart selected)
Maj: 6,371
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
The LibDem majority has fallen in every election since 1997 but the Tories haven’t been able to capitalise. And I don’t see them bucking the trend in 2015.

REDCAR
Ian Swales
Maj: 5,214
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
This was a very surprise result last time and was in large part to massive job losses on Teesside. On that basis the seat may return to its natural fold.

EAST DUNBARTONSHIRE
Jo Swinson
Maj: 2,184
Prediction: LABOUR GAIN
Jo Swinson is popular but all the political portents are against her. She will be a major loss to the LibDems.

BRENT CENTRAL
Sarah Teather (retiring)
Maj: 1,345
Prediction: DEAD CERT LABOUR GAIN
If the LibDems retain this seat it will be miracle of all miracles.

CAITHNESS, SUTHERLAND & EASTER ROSS
John Thurso
Maj: 4,828
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
A small electorate, Thurso should hold the seat he won in 2001.

BRADFORD EAST
David Ward
Maj: 365
Prediction: DEAD CERT LABOUR GAIN
One of the nastier LibDem MPs, few will shed tears at his demise.

THORNBURY & YATE
Steve Webb
Maj: 7,116
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD

NORWICH SOUTH
Simon Wright
Maj: 310
Prediction: DEAD CERT LABOUR WIN
Student fees will do for Simon Wright due to the large university vote. Of all the seats the LibDems are slated to lose, this is the deadest certs of dead certs.

CEREDIGION
Mark Williams
Maj: 8,324
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD

BRECON & RADNORSHIRE
Roger Williams
Maj: 3,747
Prediction: LIBDEM HOLD
A Conservative gain here is not out of the question but it is difficult to work out where their extra votes are going to come from.

BRISTOL WEST
Stephen Williams
Maj: 11.336
Prediction: DEAD CERT LIBDEM HOLD

CARDIFF CENTRAL
Jenny Willott
Maj: 4,576
Prediction: PROBABLE LIBDEM HOLD
Labour have their sights in this one. It may prove out of their reach.

The composition of UKIP and its current support shows that the Tories have a lot more to lose than Labour

The Tories stand to lose voters to UKIP a lot more than Labour

For a long time, Labour Politicians have been ignoring the rise of UKIP, and referring to its supporters as being "Tories on holiday." The above graph from Ipsos MORI shows exactly why. Mori did a poll of UKIP supporters and asked them which political party they supported in 2010. The results are striking- UKIP take far more votes from the Tories than they do from ANY other political party. This explains why the Tories have been so worried and scared about UKIP- By a factor of 2-1 this makes it extremely difficult for the Tories to win a majority in 2015. This effect of splitting the vote in the right cannot be underestimated- In 1983 the same thing happened, only this time it was Labour that had to suffer from the meteoric rise of the SDP-Liberal Alliance, which led to a landslide victory for Margaret Thatcher despite her receiving less votes than she did previously.

Another factor which is striking is the large numbers of Non-Voters who have decided to vote for UKIP. If this remains as it is, we could see a 5-10% increase in turnout at the next election, and UKIP would then gain many seats, most likely from the Tories or Lib Dems as their vote collapses, as is likely.

With 15 Months to go, every event has major political significance. The stakes in this election could not be any higher.