How Farage's declaration that he would back the Tories changes the dynamics of election 2015

Nigel Farage today announced that he would instruct UKIP MPs to back the deficit reduction plan put forward by the Conservatives. Whilst this may have been seen as a foregone conclusion by many, it is a very significant moment, because it changes the dynamics of the electoral map. Previously, Farage had indicated that he would only do a deal with a party that offered an EU referendum, but his embrace of the Tories' economic plan opens up two new possibilities.

1: A conservative government backed by the DUP and UKIP.
Let's assume the worst case scenario for Ed Miliband. His party finishes on 31% of the vote to 35% for the Tories. Labour are subsequently massacred in Scotland and struggle to make even modest gains from the Tories and Lib Dems...so much so that David Cameron, through gaining seats from his coalition partners, finishes on 310 seats. The 13 seats won by the DUP and combined would be enough to give him a parliamentary majority, though it would be unstable, if he decided on a pact or coalition with them (The 5 Sinn Fein MPs tend not to turn up, and the Speaker is apolitical). In this scenario, David Cameron could govern and remain prime minister, albeit with major concessions to the other parties.

2: But, let us assume that the liberal democrats suddenly lurch rightward and decide that they want to partner with firmly right of centre parties such as UKIP and the DUP. This scenario may become likely, particularly as most Lib Dem MPs that are left will be representing suburban shire seats, particularly as most of the left-wing Lib Dems are likely to fall in battle against Labour. In this scenario, with the Lib Dems winning 30 and the DUP and UKIP winning a combined total of 13 seats, a total of 43, David Cameron would need just 280 seats to remain in power, and would have to rely on an SNP onslaught in Scotland to prevent Labour from winning most seats. This scenario is not particularly likely, but it is possible to imagine a scenario (And even probable) where all 4 parties sign an anti-Labour confidence and supply agreement. Since all 4 parties agree with the economic plan put forward by the Tories in principle, this scenario is becoming increasingly likely.

Either way, election 2015 just got a whole lot more interesting.

Democratic Unionists threaten legal challenge over debate snub.

The DUP is currently the 4th largest party, with 8 MPs.

The DUP has threatened to launch a legal challenge against the BBC, weeks after they were excluded from the 2015 general election debates.

Peter Robinson, the DUP leader, accused the BBC of "Treating Northern Irish people like 2nd class citizens" by excluding all NI parties from the debates but including Plaid Cymru and the SNP.

Robinson yesterday met James Harding, BBC director of news and current affairs, but the talks ended without agreement. An appeal currently lodged against the decision with the BBC is due to be heard next month. If that fails, Robinson has said he will take the BBC to court.

A DUP challenge is highly likely to be successful, according to legal experts. It would then make it extremely unlikely that the debates could go ahead, as talks would have to start all over again, and the April cut-off point is approaching very fast.

The BBC and ITV are currently planning to hold two debates involving the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, UKIP, Plaid Cymru, the SNP and the Greens.
The DUP is currently the fourth largest party in the Commons, with eight MPs.

A third debate - hosted by Sky and Channel 4 - would feature a head-to-head between Prime Minister David Cameron and Labour leader Ed Miliband.

Local health leaders back NHS Devo Manc proposals

A group of health professionals have signed a statement backing government plans to devolve NHS spending to the newly created Greater Manchester city region.

The group issued a statement just hours after details of the deal made between Manchester councils and the government was released. A city region encompassing the whole of Greater Manchester and with an elected Mayor shall be created, with powers over transportation, health spending, social care, investment in skills, policing, and a range of other areas. In total, the city region will have control of around £12 Billion of government spending, a quarter of all spending in the area.

"We welcome the announcement that control of the NHS budget is to be handed to Greater Manchester authorities and we look forward to working much more closely with these elected local authorities", the statement said.

"Under the right conditions this can be an opportunity to ensure that our Manchester Health Service - MHS - brings much greater benefits to patients and communities."

"Manchester still has huge inequalities in health. The average age at death of people living in the most deprived parts of the conurbation is ten years less than among those living in the most prosperous areas. The NHS has never been able to tackle inequality on its own but the MHS will be the biggest employer in the region and with local councils must use its muscle to reduce inequality. At the same time we want to see an end to wasteful and damaging competition between hospitals. "

The statement was signed by Martin Rathfelder, Director of the Socialist Health Association, Angela Young of the young Manchester mental health alliance, Aneet Kapoor of the  Manchester local pharmaceutical company, and other local health practioners and specialists.

Green Party economic plan a pipe dream-Channel 4's factcheck

Natalie Bennet's "Excruciating" interview on LBC yesterday was not the only thing that has gone horribly wrong for the Green Party. Today, Channel 4's fact checking service checked some of the claims made by the Green Party, which don't appear to hold up to scrutiny. Here are some of the key points:

• The Green Party claims that the top 1% own 18% of the UK's wealth. However, official statistics, with offshore accounts factored in, suggests that it is just 12.5%.
• The OFS did a simulation of how the Greens' proposed "Wealth tax" would turn out. It turns out that it would bring in only around £7 Billion, much less than the Greens say it will. In France, a similar wealth tax raised just €4 Billion last year.
• Dr Malcolm Torry, an academic whom the Greens seem to have based their universal basic income policy from, originally published a fully costed (Or so it was thought) version of how it would work. However, after major flaws in his calculations, he was forced to adjust it, so now it would cost the taxpayer an additional £24 Billion per year, and other benefits would also have to be kept in place.

The final point may be why the Greens appear to have quietly sidelined the UBI policy. A Green Party source told channel 4 today that the policy was merely "A long-term aspiration", and that the party would not be pushing for it if it got into government.

Labour candidate for Bradford West steps down.....4 days after being selected.

Understand @AminaAliLabour stepped down as #Labour candidate in #BradfordWest-embarassing as selected just 4 days ago @bbclooknorth #ge2015
— Len Tingle (@Tinglepolitics) February 25, 2015

The Labour candidate for Bradford West, Amina Ali, has stepped down, just 4 days after being selected. Councillor Amina Ali has stepped down as the PCC for the seat currently held by George Galloway, saying that she had to put her children first, but there has been speculation that she was forced to step down after lying in her selection interview....

 Surely this must increase the chance of Galloway being re-elected.

Cruddas uses church letter to endorse "Blue Labour" ideology

Remember the church of England letter from the church, advising Christians on how to vote? Now John Cruddas has written a review in the Guardian comment is free section endorsing what the church says. Cruddas has long been a cheerleader of the "Blue Labour" ideology, which seeks to adopt traditional Tory ideas such as the "Big society", family, tradition and nation, and blend them with social democratic economics.

In the review, Cruddas wrote:

"It is as a profound, complex letter, as brutal as it is complex, as Catholic as it is reformed, as conservative as it is radical"

Cruddas then goes on to say:

"It cannot be the case that any criticism of capitalism is received as being left-wing Keynesian Welfarism, and any public sector reform as an attack on the poor. This is precisely what the letter warns against, and it is a dismal reality of our public conversation that it has been received in that way."

What is significant about this is that John Cruddas is head of the Labour Party policy review. That means that he has significant influence over party policy. Are we going to see this "Blue Labour" ideology begin to take precedence?

Greens launch election 2015 campaign

@TheGreenParty launch their election campaign at @theRSAorg #GE2015 @CarolineLucas pic.twitter.com/6xRX1uqJQz
— Luke Robinson (@LukeRobboUK) February 24, 2015

The Green Party have officially launched their general election 2015 campaign, with the party set to stand in nearly all constituencies. It is set to stand in "More than 90%" of seats this time around, according to party sources, with the number continuing to rise as local parties finalise selection of prospective parliamentary candidates this week.

The Green Party has recently polled at an average of 8%, and there are no signs that it is set to decrease, with party leader Natalie Bennet making a major speech this morning, focusing on the 6 electoral themes her party will be using.

“Something profound is happening in British Politics. The old way of doing things is falling apart as the politics of hope triumphs over the politics of fear. The Green Party wants to create a political system that puts the public first and we believe we have the means to achieve that ambition. Our membership numbers have soared, our poll ratings are the best for a generation and we’re going to be fighting our biggest, boldest campaign ever. It’s a truly exciting time to be part of The Green Party.”

Recent local election results suggest that the party is in play in 3 major constituencies, Brighton Pavillion, where Caroline Lucas was elected in 2010, Norwich South, and Bristol West. In Bristol West, Darren Hall has become increasingly optimistic about his chances. Recent constituency polls have put Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and Green Party all close together.

Hall said: “In Bristol the sense of change is palpable. Our membership numbers have surged, and people from across the city are getting involved in my campaign. The fact is that people like our policies – our job is to make sure they hear about them. The momentum is with us in Bristol, as it is across the UK, and these next ten weeks will, no doubt, be very exciting.”