A guide to the positions of the various parties on a coalition.

The general election is just over a week away now. Here is a short guide to the positions of the minor parties on who they will support in a (Likely) hung parliament after the general election.

Possible coalitions that may be formed after the next election, and the position of the various parties.

Liberal Democrats (Likely to win 25-30 seats):
Nick Clegg has signalled his readiness to go into coalition with whoever is the largest party after the election, Labour or Tory. However, the Lib Dems are only likely to win about 30 seats, making such a deal unlikely at the present moment.

Scottish National Party (Likely to win 40-50 seats): SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has said she will "Never" do a deal with the Tories and is prepared to go into coalition only with Labour. Ed Miliband has ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP but refused to rule out an informal confidence and supply deal, making an SNP-Lab pact the most likely outcome of this election.

United Kingdom Independence Party (Likely to win 1-5 seats): UKIP leader Nigel Farage recently said that he would be prepared to do a deal with anyone-including Labour-if it got him an EU referendum in return. However, in recent months Mr Farage has hardened his position, saying his party would vote for David Cameron to remain PM whilst opposing EdM, and recently told his supporters to vote Tory in Con-Lab marginal seats to prevent a "Disastrous left-wing coalition" from winning.

Green (Likely to win 0-2 seats): Green leader Natalie Bennett has categorically ruled out any sort of deal with the Tories, but has been silent on the prospect of any pact with Labour. However, the only Green MP, Caroline Lucas, has vocally talked up the prospect of a pact with Labour, and recently said she would support Labour in a hung parliament.

Respect (Likely to win 0-1 seats): Respect and former Labour MP George Galloway has refused to say which party he would support in a hung parliament. He may be slightly more inclined toward Labour, but has indicated that he may abstain in a no-confidence vote.

Social Democratic and Labour Party (Likely to win 2-3 seats): SDLP leader Dr Alisdair Mcdougall has said his party will support "A strong, progressive Labour government", but will abstain on trident renewal. The social democratic party leader has categorically ruled out any sort of official or non-official deal with any other party.

Plaid Cymru (Likely to win 2-3 seats): Plaid leader Leanne Wood has said she will back Labour in a hung parliament, but this does not translated to "Unconditional support" on issues such as trident. Plaid has been a vocal critic of the Tories and has said they will attempt to vote down a Cameron led minority government.

Democratic Unionist Party (Likely to win 8-10 seats): The DUP have said they will support, and unconditionally vote for, the platform of either major party that reaches out to them. The DUP have refused to rule out a deal with either Labour or the Tories, saying that a deal was dependent on the "Individual offer" each party was willing to make (I.e whoever proposes more money for NI).

Sinn Fein (Likely to win 4-6 seats): Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams has rejected speculation that his party will end its long held abstinence from Westminster, saying that both major parties are committed to the preservation of British colonialism over Ireland.

Alliance (Likely to win 0-1 seats):
The Alliance have not said who they will support in a hung parliament, but the likelihood is that they will follow their UK wide allied party (The Liberal Democrats). Alliance MP Naomi Long faces a very tough battle to hold on in East Belfast, facing a stiff DUP challenge.

Ulster Unionist Party (Likely to win 0-1 seats): The UUP have said they would prefer a deal with the Conservatives if they did manage to win a Westminster seat.

Tories call on young GOP activists to try to stave off Labour win

Mr Realpolitik has learned, via a post here (That was either deleted or subsequently removed) that the Conservative Party is bringing over GOP activists to campaign in critical marginal seats, to help see off Labour in the critical general election on May 7th.

The initiative, called the Young Republican UK Deployment plan, originally said that the plan was all about helping the Conservatives to beat Labour.

 As IBTimes reports "The Young Republican National Foundation's International Committee is organising a week-long trip for young GOP activists to campaign for David Cameron's Conservative Party in between sight-seeing and meetings with British politicians, activists and think-tankers."

 The groups' website declares "that while the Tories "have the most support nationwide, [a] clear majority isn't guaranteed... The identity of the next government and prime minister are far from certain." It says that the trip is a "unique opportunity to witness first-hand the 2015 General Election in the United Kingdom and to help our Conservative colleagues win."

 It is an embarassing admission on the part of the prime minister that his campaign is going badly. The latest Ashcroft polls show Labour significantly outperforming the Tories in many marginal seats, with the highest contact rates, and with undecided voters being more likely to lean Labour rather than Tory.

 They are primarily are expected to be canvassing in Enfield North, Aylesbury and Windsor, Tory and Royal country, but a small group may campaign aroung the country. The total cost of the all expenses paid trip is expected to be around several thousand $.

Labour to win 47/100 of the most marginal Tory seats

Today is the official start of postal voting for the 2015 general election. Here is a handy guide to how the battle is proceeding in the 100 most marginal Conservative held seats, according to constituency polling and in some cases the YouGov Nowcast:

North Warwickshire (Majority 0.1%): Labour GAIN
Camborne and Redruth (Majority 0.2%) Conservative HOLD
Thurrock (Majority 0.2%) UKIP GAIN
Hendon (Majority 0.2%) Labour GAIN
Oxford West and Abingdon (Majority 0.3%) Conservative HOLD
Cardiff North (Majority 0.4%) Labour GAIN
Sherwood (Majority 0.4%) Labour GAIN
Stockton South (Majority 0.7%) Labour GAIN
Broxtowe (Majority 0.7%) Labour GAIN
Lancaster and Fleetwood (Majority 0.7%) Labour GAIN
Truro and Falmouth (Majority 0.9%) Conservative HOLD
Newton Abbott (Majority 1.1%) Conservative HOLD
Amber Valley (Majority 1.2%) Labour GAIN
Waveney (Majority 1.5%) Labour GAIN
Wolverhampton South West (Majority 1.7%) Labour GAIN
Harrowgate and Knaresborough (Majority 2%) Conservative HOLD
Morecambe and Lunesdale (Majority 2%) Labour GAIN
Carlisle (Majority 2%) Labour GAIN
Stroud (Majority 2.2%) Labour GAIN
Weaver Vale (Majority 2.3%) Labour GAIN
Lincoln (Majority 2.3% Labour GAIN
Watford (Majority 2.6%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (Majority 2.6%) Labour GAIN
Dewsbury (Majority 2.8%) Labour GAIN
Warrington South (Majority 3%) Labour GAIN
Bedord (Majority 3%) Labour GAIN
Brighton Kemptown (Majority 3.1%) Labour GAIN
Pudsey (Majority 3.4%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Corby (Majority 3.5%) Labour GAIN
Montgomeryshire (Majority 3.5%) Conservative HOLD
Brentford and Isleworth (Majority 3.6%) Labour GAIN
Hove (Majority 3.6%) Labour GAIN
Enfield North (Majority 3.8%) Labour GAIN
Hastings and Rye (Majority 4%) Labour GAIN
St Albans (Majority 4.2%) Conservative HOLD
Ipswich (Majority 4.4%)  Labour GAIN
Halesowen and Bowley Regis (Majority 4.6%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Nuneaton (Majority 4.9%) Labour GAIN
Gloucester (Majority 4.8%) Conservative HOLD
Northampton North (Majority 4.8%) Labour GAIN
Bury North (Majority 5%) Labour GAIN
Kingswood (Majority 5.2%) Conservative HOLD
Weston Super-Mare (Majority 5.2%) Conservative HOLD
Hereford and South Hertfordshire (Majority 5.2%) Conservative HOLD
Wyre Forest (Majority 5.2%) Conservative HOLD
Erewash (Majority 5.3%) Labour GAIN
Blackpool North and Clevelys (Majority 5.3%) Conservative HOLD
West Devon and Torridge (Majority 5.4%) Conservative HOLD
Winchester (Majority 5.4%) Conservative HOLD
City of Chester (Majority 5.5%) Labour GAIN
Croydon Central (Majority 5.8%) Labour GAIN
Worcester (Majority 6.1%) Conservative HOLD
Keighley (Majority 6.2%) Labour GAIN
Wirral West (Majority 6.4%) Labour GAIN
South East Cornwall (Majority 6.6%) Conservative HOLD
Bristol North West (Majority 6.5%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
West Dorset (Majority 6.6%) Conservative HOLD
Richmond Park (Majority 6.9%) Conservative HOLD
York Outer (Majority 6.9% Conservative HOLD
Cannock Chase (Majority 7%) Labour GAIN
Loughborough (Majority 7.1%) Conservative HOLD
Harrow East (Majority 7.1%) Labour GAIN
Warwick and Leamington (Majority 7.2%) Conservative HOLD
South Swindon (Majority 7.5%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Ealing Central and Acton (Majority 7.9%) Labour GAIN
Pendle (Majority 8%) Conservative HOLD
Stevenage (Majority 8%) Labour GAIN
Elmet and Rothwell (Majority 8.1%) Conservative HOLD
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (Majority 8.5%) Conservative HOLD
Romsey and Southampton North (Majority 8.5%) Conservative HOLD
Colne Valley (Majority 8.7%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Vale of Glamorgan (Majority 8.9%) Conservative HOLD
Dumfriessshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale (Majority 9.1%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Norwich North (Majority 9.2%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Bosworth (Majority 9.3%) Conservative HOLD
High Peak (Majority 9.5%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Chelmsford (Majority 9.6%) Conservative HOLD
Milton Keynes South (Majority 9.6%) LABOUR GAIN
Rossendale and Darwen (Majority 9.6%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Cleethorpes (Majority 9.6%) Conservative HOLD
North East Somerset (Majority 9.8%) Conservative HOLD
Great Yarmouth (Majority 9.9%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Dudley South (Majority 10.1%) Conservative HOLD
Totnes (Majority 10.2%) Conservative HOLD
South East Cambridgeshire (Majority 10.3%) Conservative HOLD
Dover (Majority 10.5%) Conservative HOLD
South Ribble (Majority 10.8%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Peterborough (Majority 10.8%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Stafford (Majority 10.9%) Conservative HOLD
Stourbridge (Majority 10.9%) Conservative HOLD
Harlow (Majority 11.2%) Conservative HOLD
Aberconwy (Majority 11.5%) Conservative HOLD
Ilford North (Majority 11.5%) Conservative HOLD
Preseli Pembrokeshire (Majority 11.6%) Conservative HOLD
Tewksebury (Majority 11.7%) Conservative HOLD
Brigg and Goole (Majority 11.7%) Conservative HOLD
Crewe and Nantwich (Majority 11.8%) Labour GAIN
Maidstone and the Weald (Majority 12%) Conservative HOLD
Battersea (Majority 12%) Conservative HOLD
Canterbury (Majority 12.3%)Conservative HOLD

So, as you can see, Labour look set to win 47 Tory seats. If Labour was set to win the 15 seats it should from the Lib Dems, it would end up with 62 gains and on 319 seats. However, the Scottish picture somewhat complicates this picture, and whatever happens, it looks like a tight race for 1st place between Labour and the Tories is what we are set for.

Tories outraising Labour in key marginals

The above table shows how much each party has raised from private donations in key marginal seats. As you can see, the Tories are clearly outraising Labour in marginal seats such as Sherwood, Dorset, Solihull, Hampstead and Kilburn, and others. Labour also has raised nothing in many more seats than the Tories.

Will this make the difference for them, or will Labour's superior ground campaign make up for it?

Only one month left until the election-It remains too close to call.

There is exactly one month left until the most exciting election in over 20 years. Labour and the Tories are neck and neck In the polls, but the surge in support for smaller parties has made the election completely unpredictable and far too close to call. The picture above is the YouGov nowcast, which states that the Tories are currently 1% ahead of Labour, and that the election is far too close to call at the moment.

The share of the vote in the poll represents a swing to Labour of 3.5% since the last general election. However, due to the Labour collapse in Scotland, which has itself knocked off at least 1-2% from the Labour vote share overall, the overall swing is expected to be around 5%, which would result in a very narrow Labour lead on seats if repeated on election day.

Neither Labour or the Tories will be particularly dissatisfied about the current position, because both of the parties know that even a small swing in either of their direction will result in a victory for them. It is really as tight as that. Labour seems to be doing better in the target and marginal seats rather than nationally elsewhere or in safe seats, which will give the party a lot of confidence. It is possible that a 1992 style crossover may occur and the Tories might suddenly jump into a massive lead, but that scenario remains quite unlikely. It looks as if Labour and the Tories will remain deadlocked until election day, as they have been for most of the past year, and Labour may edge ahead very narrowly on seats due to its performance in the marginal seats.

So, we have talked about Labour and the Tories, and the expectations both parties have. What about the smaller parties who have seen a surge during this parliament, UKIP and the Greens? Below is a list of some of the hopes and expectations of the smaller parties for the election.

 

UKIP Hopes

Boston and Skegness represents the best chance that UKIP have of electing an MP outside their heartlands in Kent and Essex. On the basis of the current YouGov Nowcast, which uses 150,000 interviews nationwide includng interviews within the constituency to make its predictions, the seat is currently far too close to call.  This is good news for UKIP and bad news for the Tories-UKIP came 4th with just under 10% of the vote last time, with the Tories 1st on just under 50%. The BNP vote was also quite high, which will encourage UKIP as it tends to mop up the BNP vote.

 

Another largely white working class constituency, but this time one with a largely Labour rather than Tory constituency, Great Grimsby is number 2 on the national target list UKIP have drawn up for this election. Austin Mitchell was the MP and the new Labour candidate, Melanie Onn, has some work to do if she wishes to hold off UKIP. UKIP won the popular vote her by a whopping 15% in this constituency at the European elections and have made strong local gains, but I would back Labour to hold on due to its superior ground campaign which has seen it pour in resources from nearby safe Labour and Tory seats, a feat which the UKIP campaign simply cannot match.

Thurrock is in an area o the country where UKIP can be said to have a "Stronghold", the East of England region. At the last election, Labour collapsed in this region, turning it into a virtual one party state. The Lib Dems have never really had a presence here either, which meant that there would obviously be room for an insurgent party to blossom, and there you have UKIP. The race looks incredibly tight, but UKIP are the favourites to win here, in yet another deprived white working class seat with a strong resentment toward the Westminster establishment parties.

 

South Thanet needs no introduction. YouGov declined to do a constituency estimate here due to "Hyperlocal factors", i.e the presence of Nigel Farage as the UKIP candidate. A poll here recently by Comres suggested a tough three way fight, with Labour, the Tories and UKIP all 1% within each other. Expect this to be probably one of the most exciting seats on election night.

 

 

 

Green Hopes

 

Norwich South is an area long targeted by the Green Party. As it is, they look unlikely to win here, because Labour seems to have benefited most from a collapse in support for the Liberal Democrats. The Greens will probably aim to come 2nd and set themselves up for a challenge next time, as they will then be able to present themselves as the clear alternative to an (Perhaps) unpopular Labour government. The seat is a liberal left-wing seat with many students, and can therefore swing very heavily between different parties, as it did in 2010 when the Lib Dems ousted former home secretary Charles Clarke here.

 

 

 

Bristol West is another major target for the Green Party. The party has done fairly well here on a local level, picking up a few councillors, and has capitalised on the collapse of what used to be a sizeable liberal democrat vote here. However, the Lib Dem incumbent seems to have squeezed enough Tory votes to put him into contention with Labour, who are currently favourites to win in Bristol West, so it looks likely that the Greens will end up 3rd rather than 1st in Bristol West anyway.

 

 

 

 

How Britain voted in 2010-And how that has changed.

How Britain voted in 2010 (Demographically)-and how that has changed (Source: Various YouGov polls, The politico guide to the 2015 general election by Iain Dale and other authors)

All voters: Con 37%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 23%, UKIP 4%, BNP 1%, Green 1%, other 4%. Lab-Con swing of 5%, 65% turnout
Implied by polls this time: Lab 34% (+4%), Con 34% (-3), UKIP 14%(+10) Green 5%(+4), Lib Dem 8%(-15), Others 5%, Con-Lab swing of 3.5%, implied turnout ~70%

18-24: Con 30%, Labour 31%, Lib Dem 30%, others 9%
Implied by polling: Lab 32%(+1), Green 24%(+18), Con 24%(-6), UKIP 10%(+9), Lib Dem 5%(-25), others 13%

65+: Con 44%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 16%, others 9%
Implied by polling: Con 39%(-5), Lab 28%(-3), UKIP 19%(+14), Lib Dem 6%(-10), others 8%

ABC1 (White collar, upper class, upper middle class): Con 39%, Labour 27%, Lib Dem 27%, others 7%
Implied by polling: Con 37%(-2) Labour 29%(+2), UKIP 12%(+11%), Green 7%(+7), Lib Dem 10%(-17), others 5%

C2DE (Blue collar, working class, lower midde class): Labour 35%, Con 35%, Lib Dem 20%, others 10%
Implied by polling: Lab 37%(+2), Con 30%(-6), UKIP 16%(+14), Lib dem 7%(-13), Green 5%(+5), others 5%

Homeowners: Con 45%, Lab 24%, Lib Dem 21%, others 11%
Implied by polling: Con 42%(-3), Lab 25%(+1), UKIP 13%(+12), Lib Dem 7%(-14), Green 7%(+6), others 6%

Social renter: Con 24%, Lab 47%, Lib Dem 19%, other 11%
Implied by polls: Con 20%(-4), Lab 45%(-2), UKIP 18%(+16), Green 5%(+5), Lib Dem 6%(-13), others 6%

Region by region breakdown of votes:

England as a whole:
Conservative: 297 seats (+91 seats compared to 2005)
39.5% (+4%)
Labour: 191 seats (-87)
28% (-7.4%)
Lib Dem: 43 seats (-4)
24.2% (+1.3%)
Other: 2 seats (NC)
8.2% (+2.3%)

Scotland
Conservative: 1 seat (NC)
16.7% (+1%)
Labour: 41 seats (+1)
42.0% (+3%)
Lib Dem: 11 seats (NC)
18.9% (-3.7%)
SNP: 6 seats (NC)
19.9% (+2.3%)

Wales
Conservative: 8 seats (+5)
26.1% (+4.7%)
Labour: 26 seats (-4)
36.2% (-6.5%)
Lib Dem: 3 seats (-1)
20.1% (+1.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (+1)
11.3% (-1.3)

Northern Ireland:
Democratic Unionist Party (Conservative aligned) 8 seats (-1)
25.0% (-8.7%)
Sinn Fein: 5 seats (NC)
25.5% (+1.2%)
Social Democratic (Labour aligned) 3 seats (NC)
16.5% (-1.0%)
Alliance Party (Liberal Democrat aligned) 1 seat (+1)
6.3% (+2.4%)

WITHIN ENGLAND:
North East
Conservative: 2 seats (+1)
23.7% (+4.2%)
Labour: 25 seats (-2)
43.6% (-9.3%)
Lib Dems: 2 seats (+1)
23.6% (+0.2%)

North West
Conservative: 22 seats (+12)
31.7% (+3.0%)
Labour: 47 seats (-13)
39.4% (-5.7%)
Lib Dem: 6 seats (+1)
21.6% (+0.3%)

Yorkshire and the Humber
Conservative: 19 seats (+10)
32.8% (+3.7%)
Labour: 32 seats (-9)
34.4% (-9.2%)
Lib Dem: 3 seats (-1)
22.9% (+2.3%)

East Midlands
Conservative: 31 seats (+12)
41.2% (+4.1%)
Labour: 15 seats (-11)
29.8% (-9.2%)
Lib Dems: 0 seats (-1)
20.8% (+2.4%)

West Midlands
Conservative: 33 seats (+15)
39.5% (+4.5%)
Labour: 24 seats (-14)
30.6% (-8.1%)
Lib Dem: 2 seats (NC)
20.5% (+1.9%)

East of England
Conservative: 52 seats (+10)
47.1% (+3.8%)
Labour: 2 seats (-11)
19.6% (-10.2%)
Lib Dem: 4 seats (+1)
24.1% (+2.2%)

London
Conservative: 28 seats (+7)
34.5% (+2.6%)
Labour: 38 seats (-6)
36.6% (-2.3%)
Lib Dems: 7 seats (NC)
22.1% (+0.2%)

South East
Conservative: 74 seats (+13)
49.3% (+4.4%)
Labour: 4 seats (-13)
16.2% (-8.1%)
Lib Dem: 4 seats (-2)
26.2% (+.0.8%)
Other: 2 seats (+2)
8.2% (+3.0)

South West
Conservative: 36 seats (+11)
42.8% (+4.2%)
Labour: 4 seats (-8)
15.4% (-7.4%)
Lib Dems: 15 seats (-3)
34.7% (+2.2%)

Tory Party panics as "Milibandmania" takes shape post debate.

The Conservative Party is reportedly panicking after a YouGov poll showed that Ed Miliband's personal ratings had improved dramatically.

The YouGov poll showed that Labour had surged into a 4% lead. Ed Miliband's personal ratings had also increased substantially, from -48% to -28%.

The poll seems to have led to panic in the Tory party, which had for weeks been predicting a crossover. The Times newspaper led with a story saying that 2 Tory MPs criticised David Cameron, for a series of "Unforced errors" and for a "Lack of passion".

The poll has thrown the election strategy adopted by Lynton Crosby into serious doubt. Crosby's strategy relied on personal attacks on Miliband and his personality. That may not work if Miliband's personal ratings continue to improve.