Thursday, 12 December 2013

Labour are well on their way to winning in 2015

We are now only 17 Months away from G.E 2015, and the overall situation remains the same as it did 12 Months ago. Even if everybody who voted for the Conservative party in 2010 returned to vote for them in 2015, it would make very little difference to Labour’s winning vote share. The number of Lib to Lab switchers would remain the same.

Take a look at the following Pie Graph from Comres that shows the Labour Party's current support:

This graph shows that Labour have made strong progress, and picked up many Liberal Democrat supporters, as well as a small number of Conservative supporters. Unless Lynton Crosby and his team can find a way to win back Liberal Democrat voters, then the Conservatives are doomed to failure, because as long as Labour support remains above 35%, the chances of the Tory Party getting a majority are nil. The best hope for them is narrowly winning most seats. Even this now seems unlikely, as the UKIP-Tory standoffs could make things much worse. In Lib Dem eyes, Labour also lead on most policy areas, according to this graph, once again by Comres:

Apart from immigration, where Labour trail behind the Tories, and Law and Order, where the two are equal, in every other policy area, Labour are regarded as being better than the Tories.
Whilst the Conservatives try and shift to the right to try and win over UKIP supporters, they look set to vacate the centre ground to Labour, and alienate many potential ex Liberal Democrat supporters, the very people who look set to decide the next general election.

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