The new radicals: A guide to the insurgent parties of Europe

In the last few years, many parties of the Left and Right that were previously considered to be fringe parties have surged, primarily due to a combination of left or right-wing populist politics, combined with protectionism, and an outlook that is anti-EU, anti-globalisation, and/or anti-austerity. Here, I will share a profile of some of the most radical parties that are hoping to be in (Or in the case of SYRIZA, are already) in government in their respective nations.

Denmark: The Danish People's Party

The Danish People's Party are a far-right Danish political party. Unlike a conventional far-right party, it has co-operated and supported conservative Danish governments in the past. The party is also significantly less racially biased when compared to other far-right parties across Europe, and has restricted itself to anti-immigration rhetoric and Euroscepticism.  Previously, the party has been restricted from being in power itself in a coalition, however, this time, the centre-right in Denmark have said that they intend to co-operate with the DPP, so they are definitely a party to watch. The party now polls at around 20%, a historic high, and only narrowly behind the ruling social democrats, who are the 2nd most popular party. Denmark goes to the polls in September, so Danes had better be prepared for a major shock.

France: National Front
The National Front is a far-right, Eurosceptic, and anti-immigration party that is polling very well in France, only a narrow 3rd behind the Parti Socialiste (Socialist Party) and the UMP (Union for a popular movement). The story is much the same as elsewhere, as a country with a high migrant population becomes concerned with immigration and the EU due to the economic situation, leading to a massive surge in FN support. Polls have shown a close fight between Marine Le Pen and incumbent president Francois Hollande if a french presidential election would take place tomorrow. After the Charlie Hebdo attacks in France, there were fears that the FN would be able to make political capital and increase its support further. However, opinion polls since then have shown an increase in support for Hollande and the socialists due to how he handled the situation, which has led to a decline in FN support.

Greece: SYRIZA
Virtually everyone who has been watching the news over the last fortnight will know about this story. Due to strict austerity measures imposed by the IMF, the left-wing party SYRIZA have surged from just 5% in 2009 to 16% in the 2012 Greek elections, and to 37% in the Greek elections held last week, becoming the new Greek government. Only time will tell as to how successful they are as the Greek government.

Ireland: Sinn Fein
Sinn Fein have seen a massive surge in support in recent years in the Republic as the Labour Party have collapsed, and Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams is now confident enough to talk about the legislative platform his party will adopt if/when they win office. Sinn Fein trebled their number of seats in the Irish local elections last year, capitalising on a complete collapse in Labour Party support, and is now alternating between 1st and 2nd place in Irish polling. Sinn Fein have adopted a broadly anti-austerity left-wing platform, reaching out from beyond their traditional republican stance to adopt more broader left-wing economics, which is appealing to Irish voters who have been ravaged by austerity cuts for many years.

Netherlands: Freedom party
The Netherlands is an interesting country where both the centre-right conservatives and the labour party have collapsed, in favour of a centre-left party known as democrats 66, and the far-right Freedom Party of Geert Wilders. The Freedom Party is very similar to the FN in France, and advocated a strongly anti-Islam, anti-EU, and national socialist approach that is seeing it win support across the board. The next election, however, is not due until mid-2017, which gives the mainstream parties time to recover and to push Wilders and his extremists away from victory.

Portugal: Socialist Party
The Socialist Party is another left-wing party that has seen increased support, although they are considerably more moderate than many other of the left-wing parties that have surged. The Socialists now look set to overtake the social democratic party to become the largest party in the Portuguese parliament when an election is held later on this year. Interestingly, the communist vote has also started to rise, but not enough to cause the socialists to panic.

Spain: PODEMOS
Podemos has quite a remarkable story. A few years ago, the party did not exist at all, but the party is now level pegging with the ruling Partido Popular, and must surely be considered the new favourites to win the next Spanish election, which is taking place later on this year. The rise of Podemos (The name means "We can") started to happen during the 2014 European Parliament elections, when it stormed onto the scene and won 5 MEP seats. Since then, the little known party has surged in the polls and now has a real chance of becoming the 2nd radical left government to be elected in Europe.

Sweden: Sweden Democrats
The Sweden Democrats are a far-right political party in Sweden. The party has continuously increased its support at every general election it has fought, and is currently polling at an all time high of 15%. The party won 49 seats in the last election, forcing the newly elected Social Democratic Swedish PM to create a deal with the Moderate party to get legislation through parliament. Like many other far-right parties in Nordic nations, the party is sufficiently soft to attract popular support, at least when compared to far-right parties in places such as France.

United Kingdom: UKIP
This story needs little retelling. UKIP, a Eurosceptic right-wing party that formerly only did well in European Parliamentary elections, has surged in conjunction with other left-wing and right-wing radical parties in Europe, and is likely to come 3rd in the UK parliamentary elections that are set to take place in May. Compared to some of the other radical right elements such as the FN, however, the party is significantly more moderate, and prefers to put migrants and the European Union in its sights, rather than racial or authoritarian nationalism that is common amongst fascist parties and political parties of the far-right.

BREAKING NEWS- Ed Balls rules out Labour coalition with SNP after May Election

Ed Balls has ruled out a coalition between the Labour Party and the SNP, despite a Sky News projection which puts Labour well short of an overall majority on current polling.
Speaking on Sky News, Ed Balls, when asked if Labour would consider going into coalition with the Scottish Nationalists after the May election, simply replied "No."

Mr Balls was speaking in the immediate aftermath of a speech by Ed Miliband in Trafford, where the Labour Party leader pledged to protect the NHS from "Tory cuts", warning that the NHS is facing its "Most perilous moment."

"We will hire more doctors and by saving resources on privatisation and competition, we will end the scandal of patients having to wait days, even weeks, for a GP appointment," he told his audience in Manchester.

"We will use the resources we raise to hire 5,000 care-workers - a new arm of the NHS - to help elderly people stay healthy at home. And because we will be putting in place one system of health and social care we will end the scandal of care visits restricted to 15 minutes."

This comes as a poll for the Independent finds that the NHS will be the most important issue in deciding how people will vote.

Labour lead at 1: Lab 33%, Con 32%, UKIP 16%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 8%

Labour and UKIP are each down by 1%, the Tories hold steady, whilst the Lib Dems and Greens each jump by 2 points in this week's polling average. On this share of the vote, factoring Scotland in, it is touch and go as to whether or not Labour could be the largest party after the election. The two main parties are deadlocked whilst minor parties continue to poll strongly. How this will play out at the general election is unclear. In the meantime, below are some election facts, courtesy of YouGov polling. As of tomorrow, only 100 days will be left until the election, and knowing the demographics of the election will be important.

Election facts:

Some facts about general election 2015 (Courtesy: YouGov polls and internal YouGov data)

~75% of Conservative 2010, ~77% of Labour 2010, and ~35% of 2010 Lib Dems are planning to stay loyal to their respective parties.

Out of the 25% of Tories who have defected, the majority (18%) have gone to UKIP. Less than 4% of Tory 2010 support has gone to Labour, the Greens, or Lib Dems. The remaining 3% are now unsure or say they will not vote. Out of the 23% of voters Labour have lost, around 8% say they are undecided or will not vote, 10% has gone to UKIP, whilst 5% has gone to the SNP, Greens, and Tories. Lib Dem 2010 support is now all over the place. 25% are now backing Labour, 15% are supporting the Tories, 10% the Greens and UKIP, and another 15% are undecided/dk.

The new Green Party support is composed of 10% Tory 2010, 20% Labour 2010, 40% Lib Dem. The remaining 30% is from non-voters. The new UKIP support is primarily from the conservatives, with approximately 40% coming from the Tories, 20% from Labour, and 20% from former Liberal Democrats. Another 20% is former non-voters. UKIP's strongest demographic is the C2DE (Much like Labour) whilst the strongest Green demographic is ABC1 (Formerly the strongest Lib Dem demographic). UKIP voters tend to do well amongst older, poorer voters, whilst Green support is concentrated amongst younger people and those in high end jobs. Amongst people in the 65+ age group, the Tories have a 10 point lead, but trail Labour by 2% in the 18-24 demographic.

Judging by the relative shares of the new and older parties, it is not unreasonable to assume that ~3 million more will vote in this election than in 2010. The turnout would be 70%- the highest in 18 years.

Why First Past the Post is such an awful electoral system

Projected election result on latest opinion poll.

If the polls are right, we are heading for one of the most grossly disproportionate and illegitimate election results ever, and forming a government may be completely impossible after May. The latest poll has Labour and the Tories on 31%, with UKIP on 16%, and the Lib Dems and Greens both on 8%. Meanwhile, in Scotland, the SNP have a 10% lead over Labour, with Labour on 31% and the SNP on 41%.

On a fully proportional system, Labour and the Conservatives would win 201 seats each, with 104 seats for UKIP, with 52 seats each for the Lib Dems and Green Party, and 40 seats for other and minor parties. But the UK does not have a fully proportional system. The electoral system used by the UK is First Past the Post.

First Past the Post is an electoral system that was created in the 18th century, when there were only two political parties, the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party. At the time, it was relatively simple. Whoever came first in each constituency won that constituency, and whoever came 1st in the most constituencies won the election. This is clearly a flawed approach for the modern era. To give an example of how FPTP tends to produce disproportionate results, let us simulate a first past the post election in 5 seats. Let us assume that party C wins 23.6% of the vote, and Party B wins 25% of the vote, and Party A wins 45% of the vote, with other parties winning the remainder. Let us also assume that the vote for party C is much more concentrated than the vote for party B, and that the other parties fail to get over an electoral threshold required for PR seat allocation. With a fully proportional system, Party A would win 2 seats, with 2 seats also for party B, and party C winning the final seat. But, often in a FPTP election, such a seat projection often turns out like this:

Constituency A:
Party A: 60%
Party B: 20%
Party C: 20%

Constituency B:
Party A: 40%
Party B: 30%
Party C: 15%

Constituency C:
Party C: 38%
Party A: 35%
Party B: 20%

Constituency D:
Party A: 50%
Party B: 20%
Party C: 20%

Constituency E:
Party A: 40%
Party B: 35%
Party C: 25%

So, as you can see, although Party B comes second in nearly every seat, and has a higher % of the vote than Party C in this region, Party A nearly cleansweeps the election, winning 80% of seats, with Party C winning a solitary seat, and 0% of seats for Party B, despite its higher share of the vote than Party C. This kind of disprportionate result was seen in the UK General Election of 1983, when the Labour Party won over 180 more seats than the SDP, despite polling only a few hundreds of thousands of votes more, and Thatcher won a massive landslide. Another example is the February 1974 election, when the Liberals attracted 19% of the vote, and won just 4% of seats. Why does our electoral system tend to produce such massively disproportionate results?

The answer lies, firstly, in local strength. Labour and the Conservatives have always had thousands more councillors than the Lib Dems, or any other party. As a result, they are able to campaign hard in constituencies and squeeze out enough votes to see off smaller political parties. Therefore, it is also clear that the result of an FPTP election does not depend on the share of the vote that political parties get, and this is an effective irrelevence. The result depends on which party has the most broadly widespread and distributed support across the country. This is also partially the reason for the so-called "Labour-Tory gap", a phenomenon where Labour can win many more seats more than the Tories on the same share of the vote nationally, primarily due to the Labour vote being distributed evenly around the country. It is said that where the Tories win a seat, they win it by 10 or 15,000 votes, and where Labour win a seat, they win it by 100. This is, however, changing, primarily due to events taking place in Scotland. Now, it may be Labour who will be partially disadvantaged by our voting system, as opinion polls in Scotland would see Labour losing the vast majority of its seats North of the border, whereas under a regional party list PR system, the party would be set to hold around half of those seats.

Another major problem with FPTP is the fact that is disenfranchises people in safe seats. Turnout in safe Labour seats in particular has taken a major blow over recent decades. The appearance of safe seats, and the fact that votes effectively do not count in those seats, a phenomenon only seen in first past the post, disenfranchises voters and makes many feel that the way they vote makes no difference to the overall result, whereas in a party list PR system or a multi-member proportional system, voters can cast a second vote for a regional list that will definitely make a difference. The fact that MPs and councillors in safe seats also have less of an incentive to keep in contact with and represent local residents adequately is another major blow to FPTP, especially at a time when trust in politics is lower than it has been at any time since the early 1970s.

An argument in favour of FPTP has been that it tends to produce strong government. However, it is highly likely that the next UK general election will result in a hung parliament, the second hung parliament in a row. This strongly undermines the argument that FPTP avoides horse trading, as horse trading on a scale never seen before may be required after the May election. Another argument in favour of FPTP is that the constituency link is broken with a party-list PR system. This is true to some extent. However, mixed member proportional systems such as AMS, or semi proportional system such as Alternative Vote +, retain the constituency link whilst also making sure that votes in safe seats count, as a seperate party list is used to proportionately elect list members to represent a particular electoral region, as well as an MP for the voter in his or her own constituency.

To sum up, First Past the Post has numerous problems. It is an 18th century electoral system, built for a two party system, and is not fit for the thriving, multi-party democracy that is UK politics today. Politicians and political parties must be ready and willing to accept this change, even if it is at the cost of less members of parliament for their own respective parties.

Mo's seat predictions: South East England

Previous prediction for South west cam be found here.

Seats predicted so far (South West):
Conservative: 36 (NC)
Liberal Democrat: 10 (-5)
Labour: 9 (+5)
UKIP: 0 (NC)

South East England is an area where the Conservative party is immensely strong, having won 74/84 of the seats in this region last time. This was one of the areas where Labour lost very badly in 2010, with huge swings against it, and some of the Medway towns where Tony Blair managed to win in 1997 look well beyond reach now. That being said, Labour does have the chance to make some headway, particularly in Sussex. This is also UKIP's strongest region after the Eastern region-The party got close to 40% of the vote and won many council seats in the May 2014 local and European elections. Some of UKIP's best hopes, such as South Thanet are here. However, while they are likely to come second in a great many number of seats, replacing the Lib Dems in many, it is unlikely that they will win more than a handful at most.


Aldershot
2010 result:
Conservative: 46.7%
Lib Dem: 34.4%
Labour: 12.1%
Other: 6.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Arundel and South Downs
2010 result:
Conservative: 57.8%
Lib Dem: 27.9%
Labour: 8.6%
Others: 5.7%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Ashford
2010 result:
Conservative: 54.1%
Lib Dem: 22.8%
Labour: 16.7%
Others: 6.4%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Aylsebury
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.2%
Lib Dem: 28.4%
Labour: 12.6%
Others: 6.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Banbury
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.8%
Lib Dem: 20.4%
Labour: 19.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Basingstoke
2010 result:
Conservative: 50.5%
Lib Dem: 24.5%
Labour: 20.4%
Others: 4.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Beaconsfield
2010 result:
Conservative: 61.1%
Lib Dem: 19.6%
Labour: 11.7%
Others: 7.7%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Bexhill and Battle
2010 result:
Conservative: 51.6%
Lib Dem: 28.0%
Labour: 12.0%
Others: 8.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Bognor regis and Littlehampton
2010 result:
Conservative: 51.4%
Lib Dem: 23.5%
Labour: 14.0%
Others: 11.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Bracknell
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.4%
Lib Dem: 22.3%
Labour: 16.8%
Others: 8.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Brighton Kemptown
2010 result:
Conservative: 38.0%
Labour: 34.9%
Lib Dem: 18.0%
Others: 9.2%
Prediction: Labour GAIN
The first true marginal on this list, Brighton Kemptown is one of Labour's brightest prospects in this region. Labour should take this-they require just a 1.6% swing to win it, but the rise of the Greens and the splitting of the left-wing vote in this and other sussex seats has complicated things. Nevertheless, I am expecting a comfortable Labour gain here with a strong 3rd place for the Greens.

Brighton Pavillion
2010 result:
Green: 31.3%
Labour: 28.9%
Conservative: 23.7%
Others: 16.1%
Prediction: Green HOLD
Brighton Pavillion was one of the most interesting results of the last election, electing a hard-working Green MP in Caroline Lucas. Since then, Brighton council, also run by the Greens, has become notoriously unpopular for bin strikes and sweeping cuts. Nevertheless, I expect Lucas to hold on with a larger majority than before, primarily because of the collapse of the Lib Dem vote and anti-Labour tactical voting. A poll by Lord Ashcroft in January showed her 10 points clear of Purna Sen, her Labour opponent.

Buckingham
2010 result:
Speaker 47.3%
BCD: 21.4%
UKIP: 17.4%
Others: 13.9%
Prediction: Speaker HOLD

Canterbury
2010 result:
Conservative: 44.8%
Lib Dem: 32.5%
Labour: 16.1%
Others: 6 5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Chatham and Aylesford
2010 result:
Conservative: 46.2%
Labour: 32.3%
Lib Dem: 13.3%
Others: 8.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Thia is a seat that Labour lost in 2010 and is one of the medway seats where Labour has a decent sized core vote. Unfortunately, this seat swung heavily away from Labour in 2010, and now requires a swing of 7% to return to the fold for Labour, which looks beyond them at the moment. UKIP have potential in this seat, but not enough to do more than to come a respectable 3rd place.

Chesham and Amersham
2010 result:
Conservative: 60.4%
Lib Dem: 28.5%
Labour: 5.6%
Others: 5.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Chichester
2010 result:
Conservative: 55.3%
Lib Dem: 27.4%
Labour: 10.5%
Others: 6.8%
Prediction; Conservative HOLD

Crawley
2010 result:
Conservative: 44.8%
Labour: 32.3%
Lib Dem: 14.4%
Others: 8.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
After only just losing to Labour in 2005, the Tories managed to gain  this seat on a large swing in 2010. Crawley has a large ethnic minority vote, and demographic changes have turned this into a winnable marginal for Labour. I still think the Tories will narrowly hold on here, bit don't write Labour's Chris Oxlade off yet.

Dartford
2010 result:
Conservative 48.8%
Labour: 27.6%
Lib Dem: 14.7%
Others: 9.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Dover
2010 result:
Conservative: 44.0%
Labour: 33.5%
Lib Dem: 15.8%
Others: 6.6%
Prediction: Labour GAIN
UKIP are very strong here, topping the poll in this constituency at the 2013 local elections, and appear to be taking most of their votes from the Tories. Labour clawed back significant ground here in that same election, gaining many seats from the Conservatives. Charlie Elphikeh has had just one term to build up an incumbency vote. Unless he can persuade UKIP supporters to vote for him, I feel as if Labour may take this.

Eastbourne
2010 result:
Lib Dem: 47.3%
Conservatives: 40.7%
Labour: 4.8%
Others: 7.2%
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
This seat is a firm two horse rate that looks to be heading for a dead heat, according to constituency polling. I am tipping Stephen Lloyd to hang on narrowly due to incumbency, and squeezing the Labour vote and encouraging Tories to vote UKIP.

Eastleigh
2010 result:
Lib Dem: 46.5%
Conservative: 39.3%
Labour: 9.6%
Others: 4.5%
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
Eastleigh remains a considerable Lib Dem stronghold, despite their national woes. If the Conservatives couldn't win the by-election in 2013, they won't win now. Mike Thornton looks safe.

Epsom and Ewell
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.2%
Lib Dem: 26.8%
Labour: 11.9%
Others: 5.1%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Esher and Walton
2010 result:
Conservative: 58.9%
Lib Dem: 24.8%
Labour: 10.7%
Others: 5.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Fareham
2010 result:
Conservative: 55.3%
Lib Dem: 23.8%
Labour: 14.2%
Others: 6.7%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Faversham and Mid Kent
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.2%
Lib Dem: 19.6%
Labour: 16.6%
Others: 7.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Folkestone and Hyth
2010 result:
Conservative: 49.4%
Lib Dem: 30.3%
Labour: 10.8%
Others: 9.4%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Gillingham and Rainham
2010 result:
Conservative: 46.2%
Labour: 27.2%
Lib Dem: 18.1%
Others: 8.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Gosport
2010 result:
Conservative: 51.8%
Lib Dem: 21.1%
Labour: 16.9%
Others: 10.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Gravesham
2010 result:
Conservative: 48.5%
Labour: 28.8%
Lib Dem: 13.3%
Others: 9.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Guildford
2010 result:
Conservative: 53.3%
Lib Dem: 39.3%
Labour: 5.1%
Others: 2.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

East Hampshire
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.8%
Lib Dem: 30.5%
Labour: 7.9%
Others: 4.9%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

N.E Hampshire
2010 result:
Conservative: 60.6%
Lib Dem: 25.5%
Labour: 9.8%
Others: 4.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

North West Hampshire
2010 result:
Conservative: 58.3%
Lib Dem: 23.4%
Labour: 13.1%
Others: 5.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Hastings and Rye
2010 result:
Conservative: 41.1%
Labour: 37.1%
Lib Dem: 15.7%
Others: 6.1%
Prediction: Labour GAIN

Gained by Amber Rudd, the Minister at the department of climate change, Hastings has long been a Labour bastion. It was therefore a surprise that the seat fell in 2010, but Labour had a 10% lead here in 2013 elections, so I expect a Labour gain in this seat. The Labour candidate is Sarah Owen, a former advisor to Lord Alan Sugar.

Havant
2010 result:
Conservative: 51.1%
Lib Dem: 23.4%
Labour: 17.7%
Others: 7.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Henley
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.2%
Lib Dem: 25.2%
Labour: 10.9%
Others: 7.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Horsham
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.7%
Lib Dem: 32.2%
Labour: 7.5%
Others: 7.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Hove
2010 result:
Conservative: 36.7%
Labour: 33.0%
Lib Dem: 22.6%
Others: 7.7%
Prediction: Labour GAIN
Hove was won by Mike Weatherley in 2010, who is standing down this time. A constituency poll had a 5% Labour lead. It looks as if Labour will take this seat.

Isle of Wight
2010 result:
Conservative: 46.7%
Lib Dem: 31.7%
Labour: 11.6%
Others: 10.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Andrew Turner has been in trouble over expenses claims lately, and Farage has visited the constituency. I still don't think UKIP will win here, but people said that about the Lib Dems in Redcar in 2010....

Lewes
2010 result:
Lib Dem: 52.0%
Conservative: 36.7%
Labour: 5.0%
Others: 6.3%
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD

Maidenhead
2010 result:
Conservative: 59.5%
Lib Dem: 28.2%
Labour: 7.1%
Others: 5.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Maidstone and the Weald
2010 result:
Conservative: 48.0%
Lib Dem: 36.0%
Labour: 9.7%
Others: 6.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Meon Valley
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.2%
Lib Dem: 32.6%
Labour: 6.4%
Others: 4.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Milton Keynes North
2010 result:
Conservative: 43.5%
Labour: 26.8%
Lib Dem: 22.1%
Others: 7.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
This is a seat where Labour did particularly badly in 2010, and, with a swing of over 8% required, I can't see them winning it back this time.

Milton Keynes South
2010 result:
Conservative: 41.6%
Labour: 32.2%
Lib Dem: 17.7%
Others: 8.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Traditionally the more marginal of the new town Milton Keynes seats, MK south is a classic urban/rural split seat. I think the Tories will hold on, as Labour have far too much to do here.

Mole Valley
2010 result:
Conservative: 57.5%
Lib Dem: 28.7%
Labour: 7.0%
Others: 6.7%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

New Forest East
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.8%
Lib Dem: 30.3%
Labour: 9.8%
Others: 7.1%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

New Forest West
2010 result:
Conservative: 58.8%
Lib Dem: 23.3%
Labour: 9.8%
Others: 8.1%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Newbury
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.4%
Lib Dem: 35.5%
Labour: 4.3%
Others: 3.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Oxford East
2010 result:
Labour: 42.5%
Lib Dem: 33.6%
Conservative: 18.8%
Others: 5.1%
Prediction: Labour HOLD

Oxford West and Abingdon
2010 result:
Conservative: 42.3%
Lib Dem: 42.0%
Labour: 10.6%
Others: 5.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
The Lib Dems think they may have a sniff here, but I can't see that happening. I am backing a Tory hold with the Lib Dems falling back.

Portsmouth North
2010 result:
Conservative: 44.3%
Labour: 27.8%
Lib Dem: 20.1%
Others: 7.9%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Whilst Labour did hold this seat in 2010, they have zero chance of winning this back next year. The majority is too large, and Labour came 3rd, behind UKIP, in the 2014 local elections.

Portsmouth South
2010 result:
Lib Dem: 45.9%
Conservative: 33.3%
Labour: 13.7%
Others: 7.2%
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
With disgraced Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock set to stand as an independent, he is likely to split the liberal vote and let the Tories win.

Reading East
2010 result:
Conservative: 42.6%
Lib Dem: 27.3%
Labour: 25.5%
Others: 4.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Looks like a difficult ask for Labour on paper, but in practise, this seat has a large ethnic minority vote and is moving toward Labour as a result. Labour won the popular vote at the local elections in 2014 by a 4% margin, so they have a good chance, but I am tipping Rob Wilson to hold on narrowly due to his incumbency.

Reading West
2010 result:
Conservative: 43.2%
Labour: 30.5%
Lib Dem: 20.1%
Others: 6.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
This seat is classic middle England. I am anticipating a narrow win for Alok Sharma, due to his strength in the West Berkshire portion of the seat where the Tories rack up huge majorities on a high turnout.

Reigate
2010 result:
Conservative 53.4%
Lib Dem: 26.2%
Labour: 11.3%
Others: 9.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Rochester and Strood
2010 result:
Conservative: 49.2%
Labour: 28.5%
Lib Dem: 16.3%
Others: 6.1%
Prediction: UKIP GAIN
This is the seat where Mark Reckless is the MP, defected to UKIP, and held on. If this seat goes to UKIP or stays Tory is really touch and go. If the Labour voters who voted for Reckless at the by-election go back to their natural home, he's screwed. I am going with my gut feeling that Reckless will hold on by a whisker, but it could go either way.

Romsey and Southampton
2010 result:
Conservative: 49.7%
Lib Dem: 41.3%
Labour: 6.4%
Others: 2.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Runnymede and Weybridge
2010 result:
Conservative: 55.9%
Lib Dem: 21.6%
Labour: 13.4%
Others: 9.1%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Sevenoaks
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.8%
Lib Dem: 21.4%
Labour: 13.2%
Others: 8.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Sittingbourne and Sheppey
2010 result:
Conservative: 50.0%
Labour: 24.6%
Lib Dem: 16.4%
Others: 9.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Slough
2010 result:
Labour: 45.8%
Conservative: 34.3%
Lib Dem: 14.5%
Others: 5.3%
Prediction: Labour HOLD

Southampton Itchen
2010 result:
Labour: 36.8%
Conservative: 36.3%
Lib Dem: 20.8%
Others: 6.1%
Prediction: Labour HOLD
This is a very tough seat to call. The Tories outpolled Labour here in the local elections, and Denham is retiring, so his incumbency will disappear. His replacement, Rowenna Davis, is campaigning very hard and I think she should hold on, but it will be a razor thin Labour majority yet again.

Southamton Test
2010 result:
Labour: 38.5%
Conservative: 33.0%
Lib Dem: 22.3%
Others: 6.2%
Prediction: Labour HOLD

Spelthorne
2010 result:
Conservative: 47.1%
Lib Dem: 25.9%
Labour: 16.5%
Others: 10.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

East Surrey
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.7%
Lib Dem: 25.9%
Labour: 9.0%
Others: 8.4%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Surrey Heath
2010 result:
Conservative: 57.6%
Lib Dem: 25.8%
Labour: 10.2%
Others: 6.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

South West Surrey
2010 result:
Conservative: 58.7%
Lib Dem: 30.2%
Labour: 6.0%
Others: 5.1%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Mid Sussex
2010 result:
Conservative: 50.7%
Lib Dem: 37.5%
Labour: 6.6%
Others: 5.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

North Thanet
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.7%
Labour: 21.5%
Lib Dem: 19.4%
Others: 6.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
UKIP have been targeting this seat, and were shown to be narrowly behind in an opinion poll recently. Nevertheless, I can't see UKIP winning this seat.

South Thanet
2010 result:
Conservative: 48.0%
Labour: 31.4%
Lib Dem: 15.1%
Others: 5.5%
Prediction: UKIP GAIN
Nigel Farage is standing here, and his personal vote may give him victory. But it's going to be close. Labour, the Tories, and UKIP all have a good chance here. I think Farage will win, but only because it's Farage.

Tonbridge and Malling
2010 result:
Conservative: 57.9%
Lib Dem: 22.5%
Labour: 12.6%
Others: 7.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Tunbridge Wells
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.2%
Lib Dem: 25.3%
Labour: 10.8%
Others: 7.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Wantage
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.0%
Lib Dem: 27.9%
Labour: 13.9%
Others: 6.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Wealden
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.6%
Lib Dem: 25.3%
Labour: 9.6%
Others: 8.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Winchester
2010 result:
Conservative: 48.5%
Lib Dem: 43.1%
Labour: 5.5%
Others: 2.9%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Windsor
2010 result:
Conservative: 60.8%
Lib Dem: 22.4%
Labour: 9.9%
Others: 6.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Witney
2010 result:
Conservative: 58.8%
Lib Dem: 19.4%
Labour: 13.0%
Others: 8.7%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
David Cameron's seat.

Woking
2010 result:
Conservative: 50.3%
Lib Dem: 37.4%
Labour: 8.0%
Others: 4.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Wokingham
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.7%
Lib Dem: 28.0%
Labour: 10.1%
Others: 9.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

East Worthing and Shoreham
2010 result:
Conservative: 48.5%
Lib Dem: 25.5%
Labour: 16.7%
Others: 9.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Worthing West
2010 result:
Conservative: 51.7%
Lib Dem: 27.9%
Labour: 11.8%
Others: 8.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Wycombe
2010 result:
Conservative: 48.6%
Lib Dem: 28.8%
Labour: 17.3%
Others: 5.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Total South East seats:

Conservative: 69 seats (-5)
Labour: 8 seats (+4)
Lib Dem: 3 seats (-1)
UKIP: 2 seats (+2)
Others: 2 seats (NC)

Predicted share of the vote:

Conservative: 41% (-8.3)
Labour: 18% (+1.8%)
Lib Dem: 12% (-14.2%)
UKIP: 20% (+16%)
Others: 9% (+1)

Labour 34%, Conservatives 32%, UKIP 17%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Green Party 6%

Source: Electoral calculus

The Labour Party increases its lead by 1% in this week's poll of polls. The Tories are down 1%, UKIP are up to 17%, their highest share since 7th December, the Liberal Democrats remain stubbornly low on 7% and the Greens shed 1 point to finish the week on 6%.

There is still no sign of the kind of breakthrough either the Conservatives and Lib Dems are looking for. One of the big stories in my polls for the last few weeks has been the steady decline of UKIP. This week, they have bounced back up again, with one poll by the ICM pollster putting them on 20% of the vote. It is difficult to say for sure why this is happening. However, one clue can be found in the polling on the link that I have provided: People believe David Cameron is trying to duck the debates, and many believe that he is simply using the exclusion of the Green Party as a convenient excuse. Considering the poor personal ratings of Mr Miliband, it is therefore conceivable that voters have looked at Farage and concluded that the PM is effectively running scared from him. Nobody likes a coward.

Sources close to the Prime Minister have said that he is determined not to take part, even if the broadcasters fold and decide to invite Natalie Bennett of the Greens onto the podium. Why? Because, even with the Green leader acting as a sort of competition for the anti-politics vote, Nigel Farage would probably still destroy David Cameron in a TV debate. Added to this, there is also the potential risk of Ed Miliband doing much better than expected, and therefore being able to set himself up as a credible alternative Prime Minister. The risk is just too great for the PM to gamble on.

Also, a reminder about the volatility of polling. A poll released earlier this week by Lord Ashcroft showed a conservative lead of 6%. It sent Labour MPs into panic mode. A few hours later, a Populus poll with a 5% Labour lead was released. Both have turned out to be innaccurate, as my polling average shows, but this should remind people to look at the broader trend, and not just one opinion poll.

Other major political stories of the week: GREEN SURGE

The Green Party has seen a surge in its membership figures over the past week, and now has more members than the Liberal Democrats. What trigered the surge was this article, which said that the Green Party could overtake the membership of the Lib Dems within a week.Whilst this surge is very encouraging for them, a note of caution must also be sounded. Over the same time period as the membership surge, the Green share of the vote has not risen significantly, and has actually dropped slightly in my poll of polls this week. Perhaps increasing membership does not necessarily translate into increased support across the country as a whole. On the other hand, the increase in membership must also increase the chances of the only Green MP, Caroline Lucas, being re-elected in May this year. She must surely now be considered the favourite to hold Brighton Pavillion.

UPDATE: Labour lead at 1 in first new year poll: Labour 34%, Conservatives 33%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dems 7%, Greens 7%

Source: My photograph at Ed Miliband speech

The Labour Party retains a small lead in the first poll of polls of the new year. There was little to no polling in the first week after the end of Christmas, and it is only now that sufficient polling is coming in thick and fast to give an accurate picture. Labour is down 1%, the Tories are up 1%, UKIP are down by 1%, the Greens are up 1% and Lib Dems stay where they are. Assuming a uniform national swing, this is what the result would be (Credit to UKPollingReport for this)

UK polling report predicts a small Labour majority. Personally, I'm sceptical, as Lord Ashcroft polling shows that Labour's performance in the marginals is patchy rather than uniform, and this does not take into account the Scotland picture. There must be more marginal seats polling, and more polling from Scotland and Wales, before a decisive conclusion can be reached. Overall, since my first prediction in October, little has changed. The Tories and Labour remain deadlocked, UKIP have declined slightly, and the Lib Dems and Greens remain around the same vote share. I expect this to remain the same until May, with Labour and the Tories switching places slightly, but this means that the next election will be the most exciting and unpredictable since 1992. Here is a prediction of the number of seats each party will win.

Source: BBC Newsnight

Two things immediately stand out from this prediction. Number 1 is the small number of Green and UKIP seats, when compared to predicted Lib Dem seats. Number 2 is how close the two major parties are. Number 1 has a simple explanation: UKIP may have nearly twice as much support as the Lib Dems, but UKIP's support is thinly spread across the country, and this makes it unlikely for the party to win many seats, as opposed to Lib Dem support, which is heavily concentrated, due to the stubborn Lib Dem performances in local areas. The same goes for the Greens. Number 2 accounts for an SNP surge and less than uniform swing in marginals, highlighting just how unpredictable the election result is.

Mo's election predictions: South West of England

Mo's election predictions: South West England

Every fortnight, I am going to be releasing, region by region, my predictions of who each constituency will be called for at the general election. Today, I am going to start with South West England, an area with a huge number of Tory-Lib Dem marginals, and an area of massive importance to David Cameron in his pursuit of an overall majority. In this area of the country, Labour is a relatively minor party, but it does have some hope in some of the seats, in particular in places such as Stroud. UKIP easily topped the poll here at the Euro elections, with 33% of the vote, but they are unlikely to be competitive in more than a small number of seats here. In many seats, they will replace the Lib Dems as the main opposition to the Conservatives, but the UKIP vote seems to be far too thinly spread here to make them likely winners in any particular seat.

Bath
2010 result: Lib Dems 56.6%, Conservative 31.4%, Labour 6.9%, others 5.1%
Majority: 11,883
Prediction: Liberal Democrat HOLD
Only an absolute calamity will see the 11,000 Lib Dem majority here wiped out. Don Foster is standing down, but this seat should remain rock solid yellow nonetheless.

Bournemouth East
2010 result: Conservative 48.4%, Lib Dem 30.9%, Labour 13.3%, other 7.4%
Majority: 7728
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Bournemouth West
2010 result: Conservative 45.1%, Lib Dem 31.7%, Labour 14.8%, others 8.3%
Majority: 5583
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Bridgewater and west somerset
2010 result: Conservative 45.3%, Lib Dems 28.3%, Labour 17.1%, others 9.3%
Majority: 9249
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Bristol east
2010 result: Labour 36.6%, Conservative 28.3%, Lib Dems 24.4%, others 10.7%
Majority: 3722
Prediction: Labour HOLD

Bristol North West
2010 result: Conservative 38.0%, Lib Dems 31.5%, Labour 25.9%, others 4.6%
Majority: 3274
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
This seat was won by the Conservatives from Labour in 2010, with Labour collapsing to 3rd place after some boundary changes. The seat is a mixture of wealthy commuter suburbs, with deprived areas where Labour tends to do sell, in places around Anonmouth Docks. The Conservatives outpaced Labour by 33.6% to 24.5% in the 2014 local elections here, with the Lib Dems languishing behind on 17.4%. A Labour gain here is not out of the question if they can sufficiently squeeze the Lib Dem vote, but the Conservatives should have enough support to get over the line.

Bristol South
2010 result: Labour 38.4%, Lib Dems 28.7%, Conservatives 22.9%, others 10.0%
Majority: 4734
Prediction: Labour HOLD

Bristol West
2010 result: Lib Dems 48.0%, Labour 27.5%, Conservative 18.4%, others 6.4%
Majority: 11,366
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
Bristol West is a difficult seat to call. The seat has quite a large Green vote, with many Green cllrs, which complicates things to some extent. Stephen Williams' incumbency should see him through but with a much smaller majority. I expect a divided opposition vote between Labour and the Green party will also help him to hold on.

Camborne and Redruth
2010 result: Conservative 37.6%, Lib Dems 37.4%, Labour 16.3%, others 8.7%
Majority: 66
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Camborne and Redruth has been Labour, Lib Dem, and Conservative between 1997 and 2010. This seat used to have a large labour vote, but, surely, they start from too low a base to win this seat. This seat is a firm UKIP target, has a primarily older demographic, and several constituency polls have put them ahead, but I now think the Tories will win due to a split opposition vote. George Eustice may manage to hold on with the support of just 29% of his constituents.

Cheltenham
2010 result: Lib Dems 50.5%, Conservative 41.2%, Labour 5.1%, others 3.2%
Majority: 4920
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
This seat could go Tory, although I am tipping the Lib Dems to hold on. The Labour vote has collapsed to just 5% and will inevitably increase this May. Martin Horwood has been a hard working constituency MP, but if the Labour vote increases significantly, he may have a problem.

Chippenham
2010 result: Lib Dems 45.8%, Conservatives 41.0%, Labour 6.9%, others 6.3%
Majority: 2470
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
Duncan Hames has a very tough job to hold on in Chippenham. Similarly to Cheltenham, the Labour vote was at rock bottom last time, and should increase at the Lib Dems' expense. Hames has only had a single term to build up an incumbency vote. His success depends on telling Labour voters that there is absolutely no point in voting Labour because they can't win in Chippenham, and encouraging Tory supporters to vote UKIP, but I think the Conservatives will narrowly take this.

Christchurch
2010 result: Conservative 56.4%, Lib Dem 25.3%, Labour 9.8%, others 8.5%
Majority: 15,410
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

North Cornwall
2010 result: Lib Dems 48.1%, Conservative 41.7%, UKIP 4.9%, Labour 3%, others 2.3%
Majority: 2981
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
Another small majority for the Lib Dems to defend, but this seat has a large UKIP vote, which inevitably depresses the Tory vote. Dan Rogerson should hold on with a similar majority to what he had in 2010.

South East Cornwall
2010 result: Conservative 45.1%, Lib Dems 38.6%, Labour 7.1%, others 9.2%
Majority: 3220
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

The Cotswold
2010 result: Conservative 53.0%, Lib Dems 29.6%, Labour 10.7%, others 6.7%
Majority: 12,864
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Devizes
2010 result: Conservative 55.1%, Lib Dem 27.0%, Labour 10.2%, others 7.8%
Majority: 13,005
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Central Devon
2010 result: Conservative 51.5%, Lib Dems 34.4%, Labour 6.9%, others 7.3%
Majority: 9230
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

East Devon
2010 result: Conservative 48.3%, Lib Dem 31.2%, Labour 10.8%, others 9.7%
Majority: 9114
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

North Devon
2010 result: Lib Dems 47.4%, Conservative 36.0%, UKIP 7.2%, others 9.4%
Majority: 5821
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD

South West Devon
2010 result: Conservative 56.0%, Lib Dems 24.1%, Labour 12.4%
Majority: 15,874
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Torridge and West Devon
2010 result: Conservative 45.7%, Lib Dems 40.3%, UKIP 5.5%, Others 8.6%
Majority: 2957
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Mid Dorset and North Poole
2010 result: Lib Dems 45.1%, Conservative 44.5%, Labour 5.9%, others 4.5%
Majority: 269
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
It was remarkable that the Lib Dems held onto this seat in 2010. With the sitting MP, Annette Brooke, stepping down, the Lib Dems need a miracle to hold this seat.

North Dorset
2010 result: Conservative 51.1%, Lib Dems 37.0%, Labour 5.4%, others 6.6%
Majority: 7625
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

South Dorset
2010 result: Conservative 45.1%, Labour 30.3%, Lib Dems 19.0%, others 5.7%
Majority: 7443
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
This seat was gained by the Tories from Labour in 2010 on a huge swing, and, as such, it looks far too difficult for them to take back in May. If Labour were heading for a comfortable majority, you would expect them to take back this kind of seat, but current polling shows that they are not. Richard Drax should hold on, probably with his majority cut in half.

West Dorset
2010 result: Conservative 47.6%, Lib Dems 40.7%, Labour 6.7%, others 5.0%
Majority: 3923
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Exeter
2010 result: Labour 38.2%, Conservative 33.0%, Lib Dems 20.3%, others 8.6%
Majority: 2721
Prediction: Labour HOLD

Filton and Bradley Stoke
2010 result: Conservative 40.8%, Labour 26.4%, Lib Dems 25.3%, others 7.5%
Majority: 6914
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Again, this seat looks far too difficult for Labour to take. If Labour are heading for a comfortable majority, they take this seat. If they aren't, they won't.

Forest of Dean
2010 result: Conservative 46.9%, Labour 24.2%, Lib Dems 21.9%, others 7.1%
Majority: 11,064
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Gloucester
2010 result: Conservative 39.9%, Labour 35.2%, Lib Dems 19.2%, others 5.7%
Majority: 2420
Prediction: Labour GAIN
The Conservatives only narrowly won this seat last time and will struggle to hold on. If even a fraction of the lib dem vote goes to Labour, they will regain this seat.

Kingswood
2010 result: Conservative: 40.4%, Labour 35.3%, Lib Dems 16.8%, others 7.4%
Majority: 2445
Prediction: Labour GAIN
Labour should win this seat back in May. The bulk of the constituency is very heavily inclined toward Labour, with Kingswood once having been a coal-mining town. The collapse of the lib dem vote, and UKIP taking 1-2000 Tory votes, should be enough for Labour to win this seat back.

Newton Abbott
2010 result: Conservative 43.0%, Lib Dems 41.9%, Labour 7.0%, Others 8.0%
Majority: 523
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
The Lib Dems lost this seat in 2010 and will be desperate to win it back. At the moment, that looks difficult, though not beyond the realms of possibility. The Lib Dems narrowly outpaced the Tories by 33% to 31% in the 2013 local elections here, yet despite their considerable resillience on a local level, constituency polls have found them to be trailing the Tories substantially in Westminster voting intentions.

Plymouth Moor View
2010 result: Labour 37.2%, Conservative 33.3%, Lib Dems 16.9%, others 12.6%
Majority: 1588
Prediction: Labour HOLD

Plymouth, Sutton and Devenport
2010 result: Conservative 34.3%, Labour 31.7%, Lib Dems 24.7%, others 9.4%
Majority: 1149
Prediction: Labour GAIN
Labour should win this seat back. The seat is considerably more middle class than neighbouring moor view, but has some areas where Labour racks up overwhelming majorities. The Lib Dems have 10,000 votes here, the bulk of which are inevitably going to go to Labour. UKIP has done well here too in recent years, winning several seats.

Poole
2010 result: Conservative 47.5%, Lib Dem 31.6%, Labour 12.7%, others 8.2%
Majority: 7451
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Salisbury
2010 result: Conservative 49.2%, Lib Dem 36.9%, Labour 7.6%, others 6.3%
Majority: 5966
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

North Somerset
2010 result: Conservative 49.3%, Lib Dem 35.7%, Labour 11.1%, others 3.9%
Majority: 7862
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

North East Somerset
2010 result: Conservative 41.3%, Labour 31.7%, Lib Dems 22.3%, others 4.7%
Majority: 4914
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Jacob Reece Mogg has built up a significant personal following in N.E Somerset. Demographically, the seat does not look good for Labour, with low levels of council housing and an overwhelmingly white population, though there are some areas that used to be part of the Somerset coal field. Mogg should be ok.

Somerton and Frome
2010 result: Lib Dems 47.5%, Conservative 44.5%, Labour 4.4%, others 3.6%
Majority: 1817
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
With sitting MP David Heath retiring, the Lib Dems need a miracle to hold on here. A poll by Lord Ashcroft showed the Tories comfortably ahead by 11 points here, so they should take this comfortably.

St Austell and Newquay
2010 result: Lib Dems 42.7%, Conservative 40.0% Labour 7.0%, others 10.1%
Majority: 1312
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
This seat could go one of 3 ways. My gut feeling is that Stephen Gilbert will manage to hold on with a tiny majority, if he can sufficiently squeeze the Labour vote. A poll by Lord Ashcroft had a 1% tory lead here over the Lib Dems, with the Tories on 27%, Lib Dems on 26%, and UKIP on 25% on the "How will you vote in your constituency" question.

St Ives
2010 result: Lib Dems 42.7%, Conservatives 39.0%, Labour 8.2%, others 10.1%
Majority: 1719
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
Andrew George is your typical, pavement politician. Some would call him a typical Lib Dem. He has built up a considerable personal vote that should allow him to hold on in May, despite his tiny majority. An Ashcroft poll confirmed that it would be a tough race, with both the Lib Dems and Conservatives on 30%, and UKIP on 21%. George's incumbency should see him home with a small majority.

Stroud
2010 result: Conservative 40.8%, Labour 38.6%, Lib Dems 15.4%, others 5.1%
Majority: 1299
Prediction: Labour GAIN
If, as expected, even a small fraction of the 9000 strong lib dem vote at the last election goes to Labour, they should regain this seat, which they probably should never have lost in 2010. The long term demographic changes in the constituency do not favour the conservatives.

North Swindon
2010 result:  Conservative 44.6%, Labour 30.5%, Lib Dems 17.2%, others 7.7%
Majority: 7060
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
This seat is the more working class of the two swindon seats, but the demographics of the constituency favour the conservatives, with a growing number of middle class professionals migrating toward the affluent private estates within the boundaries of the constituency. The Tories continue to dominate the council, and winning here will be an uphill struggle for Labour.

South Swindon
2010 result: Conservative 41.8%, Labour 34.3%, Lib Dems 17.6%, others 6.3%
Majority:3544
Prediction: Labour GAIN
This seat looks to be very tight. The reason? The Conservatives have wards in the rural areas of Wroughton and Chiseldon where they rack up overwhelming majorities, whilst Labour does well in the working class council estates and the central and park wards. The current MP, Robert Buckland, will face off against the previous Labour MP for this seat, Anne Snelgrove. Turnout is going to be a major factor here. If there is a higher turnout, Labour should win. If not, the Tories will hold on.

Taunton Deane
2010 result: Lib Dem 49.1%, Conservative 42.2%, Labour 5.1%, others 3.6%
Majority: 3993
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
After Jeremy Browne decided to kick the bucket and resign as an MP, I now think the Tories will win Taunton Deane.

Tewkesbury
2010 result: Conservative 47.2%, Lib Dems 35.5%, Labour 11.6%, others 5.7%
Majority: 6310
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Thornbury and Yate
2010 result: Lib Dems 51.9%, Conservative 37.2%, Labour 7.0%, others 3.9%
Majority: 7116
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD

Tiverton and Honiton
2010 result: Conservative 50.3%, Lib Dems 33.3%, Labour 8.9%, others 7.4%
Majority: 9320
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Torbay
2010 result: Lib Dems 47.0%, Conservative 38.7%, Labour 6.6%, others 7.7%
Majority: 4078
Prediction: Liberal Democrat HOLD
This seat is on the outer edges of the kind of seat the Tories could gain, but they have been targeting it. However, I think Adrian Saunders should be ok, but may suffer a dent in his majority.

Totnes
2010 result: Conservative 45.9%, Lib Dems 35.6%, Labour 7.4%, Others 11.4%
Majority: 4922
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Truro and Falmouth
2010 result: Conservative 41.7%, Lib Dems 40.8%, Labour 9.6%, others 7.8%
Majority: 435
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Once upon a time, this may have been a seat that you would expect the Lib Dems to gain, but not anymore, as polling by Lord Ashcroft suggests the Lib Dems have collapsed to 4th place, with UKIP and Labour in 2nd and 3rd place.

Wells
2010 result: Lib Dems 44.0%, Conservative 42.5%, Labour 7.5% others 6.0%
Majority: 800
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
This is yet another seat that the Lib Dems will have to perform miracles to hold. I can't see that happening.

Weston Super-Mare
2010 result: Conservative 44.3%, Lib Dems 39.2%, Labour 10.9%, others 5.5%
Majority: 2691
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

North Wiltshire
2010 result: Conservative 51.6%, Lib Dems 36.2%, Labour 6.7%, others 5.6%
Majority: 7483
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

S.W Wiltshire
2010 result: Conservative 51.7%, Lib Dems 30.5%, Labour 11.5%, others 6.4%
Majority: 10,367
Prediction:  Conservative HOLD

Yeovil
2010 result: Lib Dems 55.7%, Conservative 32.9%, Labour 5.2%, others 6.2%
Majority: 13,036
Prediction: Liberal Democrat HOLD

Total number of seats in S.W
Conservative: 36 (NC)
Liberal Democrat: 10 (-5)
Labour: 9 (+5)
UKIP: 0 (NC)

Predicted share of the vote:
Conservatives: 38% (-4)
UKIP: 19% (+13)
Labour: 18% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 16% (-18)