Mo's election predictions: South West of England

Mo's election predictions: South West England

Every fortnight, I am going to be releasing, region by region, my predictions of who each constituency will be called for at the general election. Today, I am going to start with South West England, an area with a huge number of Tory-Lib Dem marginals, and an area of massive importance to David Cameron in his pursuit of an overall majority. In this area of the country, Labour is a relatively minor party, but it does have some hope in some of the seats, in particular in places such as Stroud. UKIP easily topped the poll here at the Euro elections, with 33% of the vote, but they are unlikely to be competitive in more than a small number of seats here. In many seats, they will replace the Lib Dems as the main opposition to the Conservatives, but the UKIP vote seems to be far too thinly spread here to make them likely winners in any particular seat.

Bath
2010 result: Lib Dems 56.6%, Conservative 31.4%, Labour 6.9%, others 5.1%
Majority: 11,883
Prediction: Liberal Democrat HOLD
Only an absolute calamity will see the 11,000 Lib Dem majority here wiped out. Don Foster is standing down, but this seat should remain rock solid yellow nonetheless.

Bournemouth East
2010 result: Conservative 48.4%, Lib Dem 30.9%, Labour 13.3%, other 7.4%
Majority: 7728
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Bournemouth West
2010 result: Conservative 45.1%, Lib Dem 31.7%, Labour 14.8%, others 8.3%
Majority: 5583
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Bridgewater and west somerset
2010 result: Conservative 45.3%, Lib Dems 28.3%, Labour 17.1%, others 9.3%
Majority: 9249
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Bristol east
2010 result: Labour 36.6%, Conservative 28.3%, Lib Dems 24.4%, others 10.7%
Majority: 3722
Prediction: Labour HOLD

Bristol North West
2010 result: Conservative 38.0%, Lib Dems 31.5%, Labour 25.9%, others 4.6%
Majority: 3274
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
This seat was won by the Conservatives from Labour in 2010, with Labour collapsing to 3rd place after some boundary changes. The seat is a mixture of wealthy commuter suburbs, with deprived areas where Labour tends to do sell, in places around Anonmouth Docks. The Conservatives outpaced Labour by 33.6% to 24.5% in the 2014 local elections here, with the Lib Dems languishing behind on 17.4%. A Labour gain here is not out of the question if they can sufficiently squeeze the Lib Dem vote, but the Conservatives should have enough support to get over the line.

Bristol South
2010 result: Labour 38.4%, Lib Dems 28.7%, Conservatives 22.9%, others 10.0%
Majority: 4734
Prediction: Labour HOLD

Bristol West
2010 result: Lib Dems 48.0%, Labour 27.5%, Conservative 18.4%, others 6.4%
Majority: 11,366
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
Bristol West is a difficult seat to call. The seat has quite a large Green vote, with many Green cllrs, which complicates things to some extent. Stephen Williams' incumbency should see him through but with a much smaller majority. I expect a divided opposition vote between Labour and the Green party will also help him to hold on.

Camborne and Redruth
2010 result: Conservative 37.6%, Lib Dems 37.4%, Labour 16.3%, others 8.7%
Majority: 66
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Camborne and Redruth has been Labour, Lib Dem, and Conservative between 1997 and 2010. This seat used to have a large labour vote, but, surely, they start from too low a base to win this seat. This seat is a firm UKIP target, has a primarily older demographic, and several constituency polls have put them ahead, but I now think the Tories will win due to a split opposition vote. George Eustice may manage to hold on with the support of just 29% of his constituents.

Cheltenham
2010 result: Lib Dems 50.5%, Conservative 41.2%, Labour 5.1%, others 3.2%
Majority: 4920
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
This seat could go Tory, although I am tipping the Lib Dems to hold on. The Labour vote has collapsed to just 5% and will inevitably increase this May. Martin Horwood has been a hard working constituency MP, but if the Labour vote increases significantly, he may have a problem.

Chippenham
2010 result: Lib Dems 45.8%, Conservatives 41.0%, Labour 6.9%, others 6.3%
Majority: 2470
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
Duncan Hames has a very tough job to hold on in Chippenham. Similarly to Cheltenham, the Labour vote was at rock bottom last time, and should increase at the Lib Dems' expense. Hames has only had a single term to build up an incumbency vote. His success depends on telling Labour voters that there is absolutely no point in voting Labour because they can't win in Chippenham, and encouraging Tory supporters to vote UKIP, but I think the Conservatives will narrowly take this.

Christchurch
2010 result: Conservative 56.4%, Lib Dem 25.3%, Labour 9.8%, others 8.5%
Majority: 15,410
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

North Cornwall
2010 result: Lib Dems 48.1%, Conservative 41.7%, UKIP 4.9%, Labour 3%, others 2.3%
Majority: 2981
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
Another small majority for the Lib Dems to defend, but this seat has a large UKIP vote, which inevitably depresses the Tory vote. Dan Rogerson should hold on with a similar majority to what he had in 2010.

South East Cornwall
2010 result: Conservative 45.1%, Lib Dems 38.6%, Labour 7.1%, others 9.2%
Majority: 3220
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

The Cotswold
2010 result: Conservative 53.0%, Lib Dems 29.6%, Labour 10.7%, others 6.7%
Majority: 12,864
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Devizes
2010 result: Conservative 55.1%, Lib Dem 27.0%, Labour 10.2%, others 7.8%
Majority: 13,005
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Central Devon
2010 result: Conservative 51.5%, Lib Dems 34.4%, Labour 6.9%, others 7.3%
Majority: 9230
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

East Devon
2010 result: Conservative 48.3%, Lib Dem 31.2%, Labour 10.8%, others 9.7%
Majority: 9114
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

North Devon
2010 result: Lib Dems 47.4%, Conservative 36.0%, UKIP 7.2%, others 9.4%
Majority: 5821
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD

South West Devon
2010 result: Conservative 56.0%, Lib Dems 24.1%, Labour 12.4%
Majority: 15,874
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Torridge and West Devon
2010 result: Conservative 45.7%, Lib Dems 40.3%, UKIP 5.5%, Others 8.6%
Majority: 2957
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Mid Dorset and North Poole
2010 result: Lib Dems 45.1%, Conservative 44.5%, Labour 5.9%, others 4.5%
Majority: 269
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
It was remarkable that the Lib Dems held onto this seat in 2010. With the sitting MP, Annette Brooke, stepping down, the Lib Dems need a miracle to hold this seat.

North Dorset
2010 result: Conservative 51.1%, Lib Dems 37.0%, Labour 5.4%, others 6.6%
Majority: 7625
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

South Dorset
2010 result: Conservative 45.1%, Labour 30.3%, Lib Dems 19.0%, others 5.7%
Majority: 7443
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
This seat was gained by the Tories from Labour in 2010 on a huge swing, and, as such, it looks far too difficult for them to take back in May. If Labour were heading for a comfortable majority, you would expect them to take back this kind of seat, but current polling shows that they are not. Richard Drax should hold on, probably with his majority cut in half.

West Dorset
2010 result: Conservative 47.6%, Lib Dems 40.7%, Labour 6.7%, others 5.0%
Majority: 3923
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Exeter
2010 result: Labour 38.2%, Conservative 33.0%, Lib Dems 20.3%, others 8.6%
Majority: 2721
Prediction: Labour HOLD

Filton and Bradley Stoke
2010 result: Conservative 40.8%, Labour 26.4%, Lib Dems 25.3%, others 7.5%
Majority: 6914
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Again, this seat looks far too difficult for Labour to take. If Labour are heading for a comfortable majority, they take this seat. If they aren't, they won't.

Forest of Dean
2010 result: Conservative 46.9%, Labour 24.2%, Lib Dems 21.9%, others 7.1%
Majority: 11,064
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Gloucester
2010 result: Conservative 39.9%, Labour 35.2%, Lib Dems 19.2%, others 5.7%
Majority: 2420
Prediction: Labour GAIN
The Conservatives only narrowly won this seat last time and will struggle to hold on. If even a fraction of the lib dem vote goes to Labour, they will regain this seat.

Kingswood
2010 result: Conservative: 40.4%, Labour 35.3%, Lib Dems 16.8%, others 7.4%
Majority: 2445
Prediction: Labour GAIN
Labour should win this seat back in May. The bulk of the constituency is very heavily inclined toward Labour, with Kingswood once having been a coal-mining town. The collapse of the lib dem vote, and UKIP taking 1-2000 Tory votes, should be enough for Labour to win this seat back.

Newton Abbott
2010 result: Conservative 43.0%, Lib Dems 41.9%, Labour 7.0%, Others 8.0%
Majority: 523
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
The Lib Dems lost this seat in 2010 and will be desperate to win it back. At the moment, that looks difficult, though not beyond the realms of possibility. The Lib Dems narrowly outpaced the Tories by 33% to 31% in the 2013 local elections here, yet despite their considerable resillience on a local level, constituency polls have found them to be trailing the Tories substantially in Westminster voting intentions.

Plymouth Moor View
2010 result: Labour 37.2%, Conservative 33.3%, Lib Dems 16.9%, others 12.6%
Majority: 1588
Prediction: Labour HOLD

Plymouth, Sutton and Devenport
2010 result: Conservative 34.3%, Labour 31.7%, Lib Dems 24.7%, others 9.4%
Majority: 1149
Prediction: Labour GAIN
Labour should win this seat back. The seat is considerably more middle class than neighbouring moor view, but has some areas where Labour racks up overwhelming majorities. The Lib Dems have 10,000 votes here, the bulk of which are inevitably going to go to Labour. UKIP has done well here too in recent years, winning several seats.

Poole
2010 result: Conservative 47.5%, Lib Dem 31.6%, Labour 12.7%, others 8.2%
Majority: 7451
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Salisbury
2010 result: Conservative 49.2%, Lib Dem 36.9%, Labour 7.6%, others 6.3%
Majority: 5966
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

North Somerset
2010 result: Conservative 49.3%, Lib Dem 35.7%, Labour 11.1%, others 3.9%
Majority: 7862
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

North East Somerset
2010 result: Conservative 41.3%, Labour 31.7%, Lib Dems 22.3%, others 4.7%
Majority: 4914
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Jacob Reece Mogg has built up a significant personal following in N.E Somerset. Demographically, the seat does not look good for Labour, with low levels of council housing and an overwhelmingly white population, though there are some areas that used to be part of the Somerset coal field. Mogg should be ok.

Somerton and Frome
2010 result: Lib Dems 47.5%, Conservative 44.5%, Labour 4.4%, others 3.6%
Majority: 1817
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
With sitting MP David Heath retiring, the Lib Dems need a miracle to hold on here. A poll by Lord Ashcroft showed the Tories comfortably ahead by 11 points here, so they should take this comfortably.

St Austell and Newquay
2010 result: Lib Dems 42.7%, Conservative 40.0% Labour 7.0%, others 10.1%
Majority: 1312
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
This seat could go one of 3 ways. My gut feeling is that Stephen Gilbert will manage to hold on with a tiny majority, if he can sufficiently squeeze the Labour vote. A poll by Lord Ashcroft had a 1% tory lead here over the Lib Dems, with the Tories on 27%, Lib Dems on 26%, and UKIP on 25% on the "How will you vote in your constituency" question.

St Ives
2010 result: Lib Dems 42.7%, Conservatives 39.0%, Labour 8.2%, others 10.1%
Majority: 1719
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
Andrew George is your typical, pavement politician. Some would call him a typical Lib Dem. He has built up a considerable personal vote that should allow him to hold on in May, despite his tiny majority. An Ashcroft poll confirmed that it would be a tough race, with both the Lib Dems and Conservatives on 30%, and UKIP on 21%. George's incumbency should see him home with a small majority.

Stroud
2010 result: Conservative 40.8%, Labour 38.6%, Lib Dems 15.4%, others 5.1%
Majority: 1299
Prediction: Labour GAIN
If, as expected, even a small fraction of the 9000 strong lib dem vote at the last election goes to Labour, they should regain this seat, which they probably should never have lost in 2010. The long term demographic changes in the constituency do not favour the conservatives.

North Swindon
2010 result:  Conservative 44.6%, Labour 30.5%, Lib Dems 17.2%, others 7.7%
Majority: 7060
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
This seat is the more working class of the two swindon seats, but the demographics of the constituency favour the conservatives, with a growing number of middle class professionals migrating toward the affluent private estates within the boundaries of the constituency. The Tories continue to dominate the council, and winning here will be an uphill struggle for Labour.

South Swindon
2010 result: Conservative 41.8%, Labour 34.3%, Lib Dems 17.6%, others 6.3%
Majority:3544
Prediction: Labour GAIN
This seat looks to be very tight. The reason? The Conservatives have wards in the rural areas of Wroughton and Chiseldon where they rack up overwhelming majorities, whilst Labour does well in the working class council estates and the central and park wards. The current MP, Robert Buckland, will face off against the previous Labour MP for this seat, Anne Snelgrove. Turnout is going to be a major factor here. If there is a higher turnout, Labour should win. If not, the Tories will hold on.

Taunton Deane
2010 result: Lib Dem 49.1%, Conservative 42.2%, Labour 5.1%, others 3.6%
Majority: 3993
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
After Jeremy Browne decided to kick the bucket and resign as an MP, I now think the Tories will win Taunton Deane.

Tewkesbury
2010 result: Conservative 47.2%, Lib Dems 35.5%, Labour 11.6%, others 5.7%
Majority: 6310
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Thornbury and Yate
2010 result: Lib Dems 51.9%, Conservative 37.2%, Labour 7.0%, others 3.9%
Majority: 7116
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD

Tiverton and Honiton
2010 result: Conservative 50.3%, Lib Dems 33.3%, Labour 8.9%, others 7.4%
Majority: 9320
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Torbay
2010 result: Lib Dems 47.0%, Conservative 38.7%, Labour 6.6%, others 7.7%
Majority: 4078
Prediction: Liberal Democrat HOLD
This seat is on the outer edges of the kind of seat the Tories could gain, but they have been targeting it. However, I think Adrian Saunders should be ok, but may suffer a dent in his majority.

Totnes
2010 result: Conservative 45.9%, Lib Dems 35.6%, Labour 7.4%, Others 11.4%
Majority: 4922
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

Truro and Falmouth
2010 result: Conservative 41.7%, Lib Dems 40.8%, Labour 9.6%, others 7.8%
Majority: 435
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Once upon a time, this may have been a seat that you would expect the Lib Dems to gain, but not anymore, as polling by Lord Ashcroft suggests the Lib Dems have collapsed to 4th place, with UKIP and Labour in 2nd and 3rd place.

Wells
2010 result: Lib Dems 44.0%, Conservative 42.5%, Labour 7.5% others 6.0%
Majority: 800
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
This is yet another seat that the Lib Dems will have to perform miracles to hold. I can't see that happening.

Weston Super-Mare
2010 result: Conservative 44.3%, Lib Dems 39.2%, Labour 10.9%, others 5.5%
Majority: 2691
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

North Wiltshire
2010 result: Conservative 51.6%, Lib Dems 36.2%, Labour 6.7%, others 5.6%
Majority: 7483
Prediction: Conservative HOLD

S.W Wiltshire
2010 result: Conservative 51.7%, Lib Dems 30.5%, Labour 11.5%, others 6.4%
Majority: 10,367
Prediction:  Conservative HOLD

Yeovil
2010 result: Lib Dems 55.7%, Conservative 32.9%, Labour 5.2%, others 6.2%
Majority: 13,036
Prediction: Liberal Democrat HOLD

Total number of seats in S.W
Conservative: 36 (NC)
Liberal Democrat: 10 (-5)
Labour: 9 (+5)
UKIP: 0 (NC)

Predicted share of the vote:
Conservatives: 38% (-4)
UKIP: 19% (+13)
Labour: 18% (+3)
Liberal Democrats: 16% (-18)

Labour end year with 3% lead: Labour 35%, Conservatives 32%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dems 7%, Green 6%

Source: My photograph at Labour Party conference

The Labour Party has extended its lead to 3% in my last poll of polls before the new year. Labour finishes the year on 35%, its highest score yet in my polling average. Overall, Labour are up 2 points to 35%, whilst the Conservatives are also up by a single point to 32%. The Lib Dems and Green Party are each down by a single point, and UKIP remain at their lowest ebb of 15% in my polls.

The only question is, is the UKIP decline permanent?  It is extremely difficult to determine whether UKIP's decline is going to be permanent, or just a temporary decline caused by the Neil Hamilton scandal. Both Labour and the Tories will, however, be relatively happy going into the new year. The election is 5 months from now, and the outcome is still uncertain. Labour will be delighted to have a 3% lead, a lead which could give them a working majority, or, in the event of the Scottish disaster for Labour that most are predicting, a favourable hung parliament. The Tories will not be too unhappy, as they will have memories of the 1992 election, when they turned over a significant Labour lead and won the election. UKIP will probably be the most happy, and the party needs to stay out of the (Negative) media spotlight for some time if it is to recover.

The position of both main political parties will become much clearer in the New Year, when Lord Ashcroft releases Scotland constituency polling, detailing the extent to which Labour may have been damaged in its Scottish citadels.

In my view, since both parties look so incredibly unlikely to win a majority, the election will be won and lost in Scotland. Significant losses for Labour North of the border increases the chances of David Cameron remaining prime minister. 

John Curtice has some interesting polling evidence about that here. Whilst the entire article is worth reading, one particular part stands out to me.

".....what they do suggest is that there is no reason to believe that the swing to the SNP does not extend to what are supposedly the safest Labour seats in Scotland. If anything, the swing appears to be even greater in such seats. In seats where Labour is defending a majority of more than 25 points the swing in the poll from Labour to the SNP since 2010 is 24 points, rather higher than the 19.5 point swing for Scotland as a whole.

That means that, if anything, estimates of how many seats the SNP might win that are derived by assuming that the Scotland-wide movement uncovered by a poll would be replicated in each and every constituency in Scotland could actually underestimate the scale of SNP gains. In the case of this poll, projecting the Scotland-wide movement across the country as a whole produces an estimated seats outcome of SNP 45, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats (on 6% of the vote), 3 and the Conservatives (on 13%), 1. But if we take into account the difference in the movement in different types of seats then the estimate becomes SNP 53, Labour 3, and Liberal Democrat 3 (while the Conservatives emerge empty handed). In short, pretty much every Labour seat in Scotland has to be regarded as currently at risk of being lost to the SNP."

Time is running out for the Labour Party in Scotland to persuade people that they are still worth voting for. If they cannot do it, then Labour's future, not just in Scotland but across the UK, is bleak. The party can be cheered by the fact that it is doing significantly better in England than in Scotland, and the majority of marginal seats are in England, but, even so, the loss of nearly all of "Fortress Scotland" would have serious implications for Labour and the other unionist parties in the future.

UPDATE: LABOUR AND CONSERVATIVES TIED: Lab 33%, Con 33%, UKIP 16%, LD 7%, Green 6%

The Conservatives are up by 1% and UKIP are down by 1% in this week's poll of polls. Both main parties are neck and neck, and look set to get only around 65% between themselves, which would be the worst share of the vote ever for the two main political parties at a UK election.

At the beginning of the week, several polls came out showing the two parties as being equal, and one YouGov poll put the Tories ahead by 1%. Perhaps the time is coming soon, when the two party system is finally broken. Only time will tell whether or not this shift away from the two main political parties is permanent, or if it is just a short blip in our electoral history.

Scotland-What next for Labour?

Mr Murphy was elected as Scottish Labour leader this week

Earlier this week, Jim Murphy was elected as leader of the Labour Party,  bringing to an end a long process, caused by Joanne Lamont's resignation as party leader, after accusing her colleagues in Westminster of treating Scotland "Like a branch office". The question on everybody's lips now is, is Murphy the saviour that Labour needs in Scotland?

The truth is, it is difficult to tell. The size of the task Mr Murphy has cannot be understated: earlier just this week a poll gave the SNP a 20 point lead over Labour in Scotland, which would leave Labour with just 6 Scottish MPs, its lowest tally since the 1920s, when the party was only just becoming a national party. A Survation poll for Scotland that has just started its fieldwork will be out next week, and will be the first proper clue. Until then, speculation about what is proving to be a key election battleground is completely pointless. 

London: Swing to Labour drops as Greens pick up left-wing Labour votes.

London at election 2010

I have decided that I am going to go under the microscope and take a deeper look at what is happening in the capital. The General Election is only 5 months away, and the capital is going to be a key battleground, where Ed Miliband needs to do well if he is to get a majority and become Prime Minister. For the purposes of this examination, I shall be using YouGov regional extrapolations, from the 1st-10th of December, calculating the swing toward or against Labour since 2010, and showing how this would impact on how many seats Labour is set to gain in London. Firstly, here are the Labour target seats:

And, here are the regional extrapolation figures from 1st-10th December: Sources for extrapolations can be found here.

                                          Lab 36.2%, Con 34.4%, LD 8.4%, UKIP 11

The findings came as quite a surprise to me, as the extrapolation suggested that there has been no swing at all to Labour in London since the last election. On this kind of result, only the 3 Liberal Democrat seats and maybe Hendon would fall to Labour, and all of the rest of the marginal seats would remain held by the Conservative Party. As early as this May, Labour was polling at 40% plus in London, and surveys from a few months ago indicated that there was a huge swing to Labour in London. What is the reason for the sudden collapse?

I did some digging, and pretty quickly discovered the reason. The Green Party has eaten substantially into the Labour Party support in London, and is polling at 8-9%, slightly higher than it is nationally. The Greens have picked up some of the left-wing liberal democrats who defected to Labour earlier in the parliament but are now slowly drifting away. My suspicion is that the party knows that this has been happening, slowly but surely, as they have appointed a London MP, Sadiq Khan, as head of the Labour taskforce on how to deal with the Green Party. Labour must persuade these voters to lend their votes to the party for the general election. If they do not, the prospect of a Labour majority government becomes very unlikely.