Thursday, 20 February 2014

Looking forward to the 2016 US Presidential elections

Sorry for the long delay since the last post. I have not had access to a Laptop as of late and so was unable to post. The important thing is that I am here now!

My strategy has been to rule out Chris Christie, even before his bridge problems. Some in the Republican Party have never forgiven him for his hug of President Obama during Hurricane Sandy and that’s influenced my thinking. He is not as popular amongst certain sections of the Republican party as it may seem to the outside world, and that could make the difference.

But on who to back, my dark horse is Rand Paul, because of his socially Liberal views and because the Libertarian wing of the Republicans has gotten a lot stronger in recent times, since the Snowden leaks.

The favourite for the Republican nomination is Marco Rubio, as the Senator for the crucial state of Florida, “The presidential candidate who won Florida has won the general election in 12 of the last 13 presidential elections (the sole exception to this rule over the 48 years from 1964 to 2012 was 1992, when Bill Clinton lost the state but won the presidency.)” That might be the reason he ends up winning the nomination, it makes winning Florida in 2016 a lot easier and would give the Republicans an immediate advantage in the race for the white house.

The name Jeb Bush is being mentioned more and more.  I’m not going to rehearse the arguments of why his surname is a bar to him being the nominee/President. Whilst I do think that he has a chance,  I can understand why people may prefer to dismiss him as a potential candidate straight away. He is a former two term Governor of Florida, which as noted with Marco Rubio makes his nomination useful in trying to win Florida in 2016, but some of his views are not in line with traditional Republican party thinking. That may or may not prove to be a disadvantage come nomination time.

The Democratic Party Nominee

There’s only one person I can see winning the nomination for Democratic Party and that’s Hillary Clinton. I know a lot of people (including me) said exactly the same about 2008, but she was up against Barack Obama, but looking at the list of other potential candidates, there is no Barack Obama de nos jours. If there’s going to be a stop Hillary Clinton, then perhaps Vice-President Joe Biden. Other than that, my strategy is to dismiss anyone who isn’t Hillary Clinton. The potential allure of having Bill Clinton back in the white house (Although this time as First Man) would serve her well in an election.

The Winning Party in 2016

 I’m loathe to back the Republicans, for a couple of reasons, the demographics of America are trending against the party, and the in only one of the last six Presidential Elections, has the Republican candidate won the popular vote, that was George W Bush in 2004. Although in the six elections between 1968 and 1988, the Democratic Candidate only won the popular vote in one Presidential Election.
 I can see only one winner in 2016 and that would be the Democrats, and especially so if Hilary Clinton runs. Still, throwing a spanner into the works and going for an unconventional candidate such as Rand Paul may help the Republicans. We shall have to wait and see.

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