Thursday, 6 February 2014

The composition of UKIP and its current support shows that the Tories have a lot more to lose than Labour

The Tories stand to lose voters to UKIP a lot more than Labour

For a long time, Labour Politicians have been ignoring the rise of UKIP, and referring to its supporters as being "Tories on holiday." The above graph from Ipsos MORI shows exactly why. Mori did a poll of UKIP supporters and asked them which political party they supported in 2010. The results are striking- UKIP take far more votes from the Tories than they do from ANY other political party. This explains why the Tories have been so worried and scared about UKIP- By a factor of 2-1 this makes it extremely difficult for the Tories to win a majority in 2015. This effect of splitting the vote in the right cannot be underestimated- In 1983 the same thing happened, only this time it was Labour that had to suffer from the meteoric rise of the SDP-Liberal Alliance, which led to a landslide victory for Margaret Thatcher despite her receiving less votes than she did previously.

Another factor which is striking is the large numbers of Non-Voters who have decided to vote for UKIP. If this remains as it is, we could see a 5-10% increase in turnout at the next election, and UKIP would then gain many seats, most likely from the Tories or Lib Dems as their vote collapses, as is likely.

With 15 Months to go, every event has major political significance. The stakes in this election could not be any higher.

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