Tuesday, 14 April 2015

Labour to win 47/100 of the most marginal Tory seats

Today is the official start of postal voting for the 2015 general election. Here is a handy guide to how the battle is proceeding in the 100 most marginal Conservative held seats, according to constituency polling and in some cases the YouGov Nowcast:

North Warwickshire (Majority 0.1%): Labour GAIN
Camborne and Redruth (Majority 0.2%) Conservative HOLD
Thurrock (Majority 0.2%) UKIP GAIN
Hendon (Majority 0.2%) Labour GAIN
Oxford West and Abingdon (Majority 0.3%) Conservative HOLD
Cardiff North (Majority 0.4%) Labour GAIN
Sherwood (Majority 0.4%) Labour GAIN
Stockton South (Majority 0.7%) Labour GAIN
Broxtowe (Majority 0.7%) Labour GAIN
Lancaster and Fleetwood (Majority 0.7%) Labour GAIN
Truro and Falmouth (Majority 0.9%) Conservative HOLD
Newton Abbott (Majority 1.1%) Conservative HOLD
Amber Valley (Majority 1.2%) Labour GAIN
Waveney (Majority 1.5%) Labour GAIN
Wolverhampton South West (Majority 1.7%) Labour GAIN
Harrowgate and Knaresborough (Majority 2%) Conservative HOLD
Morecambe and Lunesdale (Majority 2%) Labour GAIN
Carlisle (Majority 2%) Labour GAIN
Stroud (Majority 2.2%) Labour GAIN
Weaver Vale (Majority 2.3%) Labour GAIN
Lincoln (Majority 2.3% Labour GAIN
Watford (Majority 2.6%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport (Majority 2.6%) Labour GAIN
Dewsbury (Majority 2.8%) Labour GAIN
Warrington South (Majority 3%) Labour GAIN
Bedord (Majority 3%) Labour GAIN
Brighton Kemptown (Majority 3.1%) Labour GAIN
Pudsey (Majority 3.4%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Corby (Majority 3.5%) Labour GAIN
Montgomeryshire (Majority 3.5%) Conservative HOLD
Brentford and Isleworth (Majority 3.6%) Labour GAIN
Hove (Majority 3.6%) Labour GAIN
Enfield North (Majority 3.8%) Labour GAIN
Hastings and Rye (Majority 4%) Labour GAIN
St Albans (Majority 4.2%) Conservative HOLD
Ipswich (Majority 4.4%)  Labour GAIN
Halesowen and Bowley Regis (Majority 4.6%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Nuneaton (Majority 4.9%) Labour GAIN
Gloucester (Majority 4.8%) Conservative HOLD
Northampton North (Majority 4.8%) Labour GAIN
Bury North (Majority 5%) Labour GAIN
Kingswood (Majority 5.2%) Conservative HOLD
Weston Super-Mare (Majority 5.2%) Conservative HOLD
Hereford and South Hertfordshire (Majority 5.2%) Conservative HOLD
Wyre Forest (Majority 5.2%) Conservative HOLD
Erewash (Majority 5.3%) Labour GAIN
Blackpool North and Clevelys (Majority 5.3%) Conservative HOLD
West Devon and Torridge (Majority 5.4%) Conservative HOLD
Winchester (Majority 5.4%) Conservative HOLD
City of Chester (Majority 5.5%) Labour GAIN
Croydon Central (Majority 5.8%) Labour GAIN
Worcester (Majority 6.1%) Conservative HOLD
Keighley (Majority 6.2%) Labour GAIN
Wirral West (Majority 6.4%) Labour GAIN
South East Cornwall (Majority 6.6%) Conservative HOLD
Bristol North West (Majority 6.5%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
West Dorset (Majority 6.6%) Conservative HOLD
Richmond Park (Majority 6.9%) Conservative HOLD
York Outer (Majority 6.9% Conservative HOLD
Cannock Chase (Majority 7%) Labour GAIN
Loughborough (Majority 7.1%) Conservative HOLD
Harrow East (Majority 7.1%) Labour GAIN
Warwick and Leamington (Majority 7.2%) Conservative HOLD
South Swindon (Majority 7.5%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Ealing Central and Acton (Majority 7.9%) Labour GAIN
Pendle (Majority 8%) Conservative HOLD
Stevenage (Majority 8%) Labour GAIN
Elmet and Rothwell (Majority 8.1%) Conservative HOLD
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (Majority 8.5%) Conservative HOLD
Romsey and Southampton North (Majority 8.5%) Conservative HOLD
Colne Valley (Majority 8.7%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Vale of Glamorgan (Majority 8.9%) Conservative HOLD
Dumfriessshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale (Majority 9.1%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Norwich North (Majority 9.2%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Bosworth (Majority 9.3%) Conservative HOLD
High Peak (Majority 9.5%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Chelmsford (Majority 9.6%) Conservative HOLD
Milton Keynes South (Majority 9.6%) LABOUR GAIN
Rossendale and Darwen (Majority 9.6%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Cleethorpes (Majority 9.6%) Conservative HOLD
North East Somerset (Majority 9.8%) Conservative HOLD
Great Yarmouth (Majority 9.9%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Dudley South (Majority 10.1%) Conservative HOLD
Totnes (Majority 10.2%) Conservative HOLD
South East Cambridgeshire (Majority 10.3%) Conservative HOLD
Dover (Majority 10.5%) Conservative HOLD
South Ribble (Majority 10.8%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning LAB GAIN
Peterborough (Majority 10.8%) TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Leaning CON HOLD
Stafford (Majority 10.9%) Conservative HOLD
Stourbridge (Majority 10.9%) Conservative HOLD
Harlow (Majority 11.2%) Conservative HOLD
Aberconwy (Majority 11.5%) Conservative HOLD
Ilford North (Majority 11.5%) Conservative HOLD
Preseli Pembrokeshire (Majority 11.6%) Conservative HOLD
Tewksebury (Majority 11.7%) Conservative HOLD
Brigg and Goole (Majority 11.7%) Conservative HOLD
Crewe and Nantwich (Majority 11.8%) Labour GAIN
Maidstone and the Weald (Majority 12%) Conservative HOLD
Battersea (Majority 12%) Conservative HOLD
Canterbury (Majority 12.3%)Conservative HOLD

So, as you can see, Labour look set to win 47 Tory seats. If Labour was set to win the 15 seats it should from the Lib Dems, it would end up with 62 gains and on 319 seats. However, the Scottish picture somewhat complicates this picture, and whatever happens, it looks like a tight race for 1st place between Labour and the Tories is what we are set for.

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