Monday, 26 January 2015

Labour lead at 1: Lab 33%, Con 32%, UKIP 16%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 8%

Labour and UKIP are each down by 1%, the Tories hold steady, whilst the Lib Dems and Greens each jump by 2 points in this week's polling average. On this share of the vote, factoring Scotland in, it is touch and go as to whether or not Labour could be the largest party after the election. The two main parties are deadlocked whilst minor parties continue to poll strongly. How this will play out at the general election is unclear. In the meantime, below are some election facts, courtesy of YouGov polling. As of tomorrow, only 100 days will be left until the election, and knowing the demographics of the election will be important.

Election facts:

Some facts about general election 2015 (Courtesy: YouGov polls and internal YouGov data)

~75% of Conservative 2010, ~77% of Labour 2010, and ~35% of 2010 Lib Dems are planning to stay loyal to their respective parties.

Out of the 25% of Tories who have defected, the majority (18%) have gone to UKIP. Less than 4% of Tory 2010 support has gone to Labour, the Greens, or Lib Dems. The remaining 3% are now unsure or say they will not vote. Out of the 23% of voters Labour have lost, around 8% say they are undecided or will not vote, 10% has gone to UKIP, whilst 5% has gone to the SNP, Greens, and Tories. Lib Dem 2010 support is now all over the place. 25% are now backing Labour, 15% are supporting the Tories, 10% the Greens and UKIP, and another 15% are undecided/dk.

The new Green Party support is composed of 10% Tory 2010, 20% Labour 2010, 40% Lib Dem. The remaining 30% is from non-voters. The new UKIP support is primarily from the conservatives, with approximately 40% coming from the Tories, 20% from Labour, and 20% from former Liberal Democrats. Another 20% is former non-voters. UKIP's strongest demographic is the C2DE (Much like Labour) whilst the strongest Green demographic is ABC1 (Formerly the strongest Lib Dem demographic). UKIP voters tend to do well amongst older, poorer voters, whilst Green support is concentrated amongst younger people and those in high end jobs. Amongst people in the 65+ age group, the Tories have a 10 point lead, but trail Labour by 2% in the 18-24 demographic.

Judging by the relative shares of the new and older parties, it is not unreasonable to assume that ~3 million more will vote in this election than in 2010. The turnout would be 70%- the highest in 18 years.

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