Previous prediction for South west cam be found here.
Seats predicted so far (South West):
Conservative: 36 (NC)
Liberal Democrat: 10 (-5)
Labour: 9 (+5)
UKIP: 0 (NC)
South East England is an area where the Conservative party is immensely strong, having won 74/84 of the seats in this region last time. This was one of the areas where Labour lost very badly in 2010, with huge swings against it, and some of the Medway towns where Tony Blair managed to win in 1997 look well beyond reach now. That being said, Labour does have the chance to make some headway, particularly in Sussex. This is also UKIP's strongest region after the Eastern region-The party got close to 40% of the vote and won many council seats in the May 2014 local and European elections. Some of UKIP's best hopes, such as South Thanet are here. However, while they are likely to come second in a great many number of seats, replacing the Lib Dems in many, it is unlikely that they will win more than a handful at most.
Aldershot
2010 result:
Conservative: 46.7%
Lib Dem: 34.4%
Labour: 12.1%
Other: 6.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Arundel and South Downs
2010 result:
Conservative: 57.8%
Lib Dem: 27.9%
Labour: 8.6%
Others: 5.7%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Ashford
2010 result:
Conservative: 54.1%
Lib Dem: 22.8%
Labour: 16.7%
Others: 6.4%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Aylsebury
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.2%
Lib Dem: 28.4%
Labour: 12.6%
Others: 6.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Banbury
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.8%
Lib Dem: 20.4%
Labour: 19.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Basingstoke
2010 result:
Conservative: 50.5%
Lib Dem: 24.5%
Labour: 20.4%
Others: 4.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Beaconsfield
2010 result:
Conservative: 61.1%
Lib Dem: 19.6%
Labour: 11.7%
Others: 7.7%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Bexhill and Battle
2010 result:
Conservative: 51.6%
Lib Dem: 28.0%
Labour: 12.0%
Others: 8.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Bognor regis and Littlehampton
2010 result:
Conservative: 51.4%
Lib Dem: 23.5%
Labour: 14.0%
Others: 11.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Bracknell
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.4%
Lib Dem: 22.3%
Labour: 16.8%
Others: 8.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Brighton Kemptown
2010 result:
Conservative: 38.0%
Labour: 34.9%
Lib Dem: 18.0%
Others: 9.2%
Prediction: Labour GAIN
The first true marginal on this list, Brighton Kemptown is one of Labour's brightest prospects in this region. Labour should take this-they require just a 1.6% swing to win it, but the rise of the Greens and the splitting of the left-wing vote in this and other sussex seats has complicated things. Nevertheless, I am expecting a comfortable Labour gain here with a strong 3rd place for the Greens.
Brighton Pavillion
2010 result:
Green: 31.3%
Labour: 28.9%
Conservative: 23.7%
Others: 16.1%
Prediction: Green HOLD
Brighton Pavillion was one of the most interesting results of the last election, electing a hard-working Green MP in Caroline Lucas. Since then, Brighton council, also run by the Greens, has become notoriously unpopular for bin strikes and sweeping cuts. Nevertheless, I expect Lucas to hold on with a larger majority than before, primarily because of the collapse of the Lib Dem vote and anti-Labour tactical voting. A poll by Lord Ashcroft in January showed her 10 points clear of Purna Sen, her Labour opponent.
Buckingham
2010 result:
Speaker 47.3%
BCD: 21.4%
UKIP: 17.4%
Others: 13.9%
Prediction: Speaker HOLD
Canterbury
2010 result:
Conservative: 44.8%
Lib Dem: 32.5%
Labour: 16.1%
Others: 6 5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Chatham and Aylesford
2010 result:
Conservative: 46.2%
Labour: 32.3%
Lib Dem: 13.3%
Others: 8.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Thia is a seat that Labour lost in 2010 and is one of the medway seats where Labour has a decent sized core vote. Unfortunately, this seat swung heavily away from Labour in 2010, and now requires a swing of 7% to return to the fold for Labour, which looks beyond them at the moment. UKIP have potential in this seat, but not enough to do more than to come a respectable 3rd place.
Chesham and Amersham
2010 result:
Conservative: 60.4%
Lib Dem: 28.5%
Labour: 5.6%
Others: 5.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Chichester
2010 result:
Conservative: 55.3%
Lib Dem: 27.4%
Labour: 10.5%
Others: 6.8%
Prediction; Conservative HOLD
Crawley
2010 result:
Conservative: 44.8%
Labour: 32.3%
Lib Dem: 14.4%
Others: 8.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
After only just losing to Labour in 2005, the Tories managed to gain this seat on a large swing in 2010. Crawley has a large ethnic minority vote, and demographic changes have turned this into a winnable marginal for Labour. I still think the Tories will narrowly hold on here, bit don't write Labour's Chris Oxlade off yet.
Dartford
2010 result:
Conservative 48.8%
Labour: 27.6%
Lib Dem: 14.7%
Others: 9.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Dover
2010 result:
Conservative: 44.0%
Labour: 33.5%
Lib Dem: 15.8%
Others: 6.6%
Prediction: Labour GAIN
UKIP are very strong here, topping the poll in this constituency at the 2013 local elections, and appear to be taking most of their votes from the Tories. Labour clawed back significant ground here in that same election, gaining many seats from the Conservatives. Charlie Elphikeh has had just one term to build up an incumbency vote. Unless he can persuade UKIP supporters to vote for him, I feel as if Labour may take this.
Eastbourne
2010 result:
Lib Dem: 47.3%
Conservatives: 40.7%
Labour: 4.8%
Others: 7.2%
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
This seat is a firm two horse rate that looks to be heading for a dead heat, according to constituency polling. I am tipping Stephen Lloyd to hang on narrowly due to incumbency, and squeezing the Labour vote and encouraging Tories to vote UKIP.
Eastleigh
2010 result:
Lib Dem: 46.5%
Conservative: 39.3%
Labour: 9.6%
Others: 4.5%
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
Eastleigh remains a considerable Lib Dem stronghold, despite their national woes. If the Conservatives couldn't win the by-election in 2013, they won't win now. Mike Thornton looks safe.
Epsom and Ewell
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.2%
Lib Dem: 26.8%
Labour: 11.9%
Others: 5.1%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Esher and Walton
2010 result:
Conservative: 58.9%
Lib Dem: 24.8%
Labour: 10.7%
Others: 5.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Fareham
2010 result:
Conservative: 55.3%
Lib Dem: 23.8%
Labour: 14.2%
Others: 6.7%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Faversham and Mid Kent
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.2%
Lib Dem: 19.6%
Labour: 16.6%
Others: 7.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Folkestone and Hyth
2010 result:
Conservative: 49.4%
Lib Dem: 30.3%
Labour: 10.8%
Others: 9.4%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Gillingham and Rainham
2010 result:
Conservative: 46.2%
Labour: 27.2%
Lib Dem: 18.1%
Others: 8.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Gosport
2010 result:
Conservative: 51.8%
Lib Dem: 21.1%
Labour: 16.9%
Others: 10.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Gravesham
2010 result:
Conservative: 48.5%
Labour: 28.8%
Lib Dem: 13.3%
Others: 9.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Guildford
2010 result:
Conservative: 53.3%
Lib Dem: 39.3%
Labour: 5.1%
Others: 2.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
East Hampshire
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.8%
Lib Dem: 30.5%
Labour: 7.9%
Others: 4.9%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
N.E Hampshire
2010 result:
Conservative: 60.6%
Lib Dem: 25.5%
Labour: 9.8%
Others: 4.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
North West Hampshire
2010 result:
Conservative: 58.3%
Lib Dem: 23.4%
Labour: 13.1%
Others: 5.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Hastings and Rye
2010 result:
Conservative: 41.1%
Labour: 37.1%
Lib Dem: 15.7%
Others: 6.1%
Prediction: Labour GAIN
Gained by Amber Rudd, the Minister at the department of climate change, Hastings has long been a Labour bastion. It was therefore a surprise that the seat fell in 2010, but Labour had a 10% lead here in 2013 elections, so I expect a Labour gain in this seat. The Labour candidate is Sarah Owen, a former advisor to Lord Alan Sugar.
Havant
2010 result:
Conservative: 51.1%
Lib Dem: 23.4%
Labour: 17.7%
Others: 7.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Henley
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.2%
Lib Dem: 25.2%
Labour: 10.9%
Others: 7.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Horsham
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.7%
Lib Dem: 32.2%
Labour: 7.5%
Others: 7.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Hove
2010 result:
Conservative: 36.7%
Labour: 33.0%
Lib Dem: 22.6%
Others: 7.7%
Prediction: Labour GAIN
Hove was won by Mike Weatherley in 2010, who is standing down this time. A constituency poll had a 5% Labour lead. It looks as if Labour will take this seat.
Isle of Wight
2010 result:
Conservative: 46.7%
Lib Dem: 31.7%
Labour: 11.6%
Others: 10.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Andrew Turner has been in trouble over expenses claims lately, and Farage has visited the constituency. I still don't think UKIP will win here, but people said that about the Lib Dems in Redcar in 2010....
Lewes
2010 result:
Lib Dem: 52.0%
Conservative: 36.7%
Labour: 5.0%
Others: 6.3%
Prediction: Lib Dem HOLD
Maidenhead
2010 result:
Conservative: 59.5%
Lib Dem: 28.2%
Labour: 7.1%
Others: 5.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Maidstone and the Weald
2010 result:
Conservative: 48.0%
Lib Dem: 36.0%
Labour: 9.7%
Others: 6.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Meon Valley
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.2%
Lib Dem: 32.6%
Labour: 6.4%
Others: 4.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Milton Keynes North
2010 result:
Conservative: 43.5%
Labour: 26.8%
Lib Dem: 22.1%
Others: 7.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
This is a seat where Labour did particularly badly in 2010, and, with a swing of over 8% required, I can't see them winning it back this time.
Milton Keynes South
2010 result:
Conservative: 41.6%
Labour: 32.2%
Lib Dem: 17.7%
Others: 8.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Traditionally the more marginal of the new town Milton Keynes seats, MK south is a classic urban/rural split seat. I think the Tories will hold on, as Labour have far too much to do here.
Mole Valley
2010 result:
Conservative: 57.5%
Lib Dem: 28.7%
Labour: 7.0%
Others: 6.7%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
New Forest East
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.8%
Lib Dem: 30.3%
Labour: 9.8%
Others: 7.1%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
New Forest West
2010 result:
Conservative: 58.8%
Lib Dem: 23.3%
Labour: 9.8%
Others: 8.1%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Newbury
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.4%
Lib Dem: 35.5%
Labour: 4.3%
Others: 3.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Oxford East
2010 result:
Labour: 42.5%
Lib Dem: 33.6%
Conservative: 18.8%
Others: 5.1%
Prediction: Labour HOLD
Oxford West and Abingdon
2010 result:
Conservative: 42.3%
Lib Dem: 42.0%
Labour: 10.6%
Others: 5.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
The Lib Dems think they may have a sniff here, but I can't see that happening. I am backing a Tory hold with the Lib Dems falling back.
Portsmouth North
2010 result:
Conservative: 44.3%
Labour: 27.8%
Lib Dem: 20.1%
Others: 7.9%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Whilst Labour did hold this seat in 2010, they have zero chance of winning this back next year. The majority is too large, and Labour came 3rd, behind UKIP, in the 2014 local elections.
Portsmouth South
2010 result:
Lib Dem: 45.9%
Conservative: 33.3%
Labour: 13.7%
Others: 7.2%
Prediction: Conservative GAIN
With disgraced Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock set to stand as an independent, he is likely to split the liberal vote and let the Tories win.
Reading East
2010 result:
Conservative: 42.6%
Lib Dem: 27.3%
Labour: 25.5%
Others: 4.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Looks like a difficult ask for Labour on paper, but in practise, this seat has a large ethnic minority vote and is moving toward Labour as a result. Labour won the popular vote at the local elections in 2014 by a 4% margin, so they have a good chance, but I am tipping Rob Wilson to hold on narrowly due to his incumbency.
Reading West
2010 result:
Conservative: 43.2%
Labour: 30.5%
Lib Dem: 20.1%
Others: 6.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
This seat is classic middle England. I am anticipating a narrow win for Alok Sharma, due to his strength in the West Berkshire portion of the seat where the Tories rack up huge majorities on a high turnout.
Reigate
2010 result:
Conservative 53.4%
Lib Dem: 26.2%
Labour: 11.3%
Others: 9.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Rochester and Strood
2010 result:
Conservative: 49.2%
Labour: 28.5%
Lib Dem: 16.3%
Others: 6.1%
Prediction: UKIP GAIN
This is the seat where Mark Reckless is the MP, defected to UKIP, and held on. If this seat goes to UKIP or stays Tory is really touch and go. If the Labour voters who voted for Reckless at the by-election go back to their natural home, he's screwed. I am going with my gut feeling that Reckless will hold on by a whisker, but it could go either way.
Romsey and Southampton
2010 result:
Conservative: 49.7%
Lib Dem: 41.3%
Labour: 6.4%
Others: 2.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Runnymede and Weybridge
2010 result:
Conservative: 55.9%
Lib Dem: 21.6%
Labour: 13.4%
Others: 9.1%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Sevenoaks
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.8%
Lib Dem: 21.4%
Labour: 13.2%
Others: 8.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
2010 result:
Conservative: 50.0%
Labour: 24.6%
Lib Dem: 16.4%
Others: 9.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Slough
2010 result:
Labour: 45.8%
Conservative: 34.3%
Lib Dem: 14.5%
Others: 5.3%
Prediction: Labour HOLD
Southampton Itchen
2010 result:
Labour: 36.8%
Conservative: 36.3%
Lib Dem: 20.8%
Others: 6.1%
Prediction: Labour HOLD
This is a very tough seat to call. The Tories outpolled Labour here in the local elections, and Denham is retiring, so his incumbency will disappear. His replacement, Rowenna Davis, is campaigning very hard and I think she should hold on, but it will be a razor thin Labour majority yet again.
Southamton Test
2010 result:
Labour: 38.5%
Conservative: 33.0%
Lib Dem: 22.3%
Others: 6.2%
Prediction: Labour HOLD
Spelthorne
2010 result:
Conservative: 47.1%
Lib Dem: 25.9%
Labour: 16.5%
Others: 10.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
East Surrey
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.7%
Lib Dem: 25.9%
Labour: 9.0%
Others: 8.4%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Surrey Heath
2010 result:
Conservative: 57.6%
Lib Dem: 25.8%
Labour: 10.2%
Others: 6.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
South West Surrey
2010 result:
Conservative: 58.7%
Lib Dem: 30.2%
Labour: 6.0%
Others: 5.1%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Mid Sussex
2010 result:
Conservative: 50.7%
Lib Dem: 37.5%
Labour: 6.6%
Others: 5.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
North Thanet
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.7%
Labour: 21.5%
Lib Dem: 19.4%
Others: 6.5%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
UKIP have been targeting this seat, and were shown to be narrowly behind in an opinion poll recently. Nevertheless, I can't see UKIP winning this seat.
South Thanet
2010 result:
Conservative: 48.0%
Labour: 31.4%
Lib Dem: 15.1%
Others: 5.5%
Prediction: UKIP GAIN
Nigel Farage is standing here, and his personal vote may give him victory. But it's going to be close. Labour, the Tories, and UKIP all have a good chance here. I think Farage will win, but only because it's Farage.
Tonbridge and Malling
2010 result:
Conservative: 57.9%
Lib Dem: 22.5%
Labour: 12.6%
Others: 7.0%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Tunbridge Wells
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.2%
Lib Dem: 25.3%
Labour: 10.8%
Others: 7.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Wantage
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.0%
Lib Dem: 27.9%
Labour: 13.9%
Others: 6.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Wealden
2010 result:
Conservative: 56.6%
Lib Dem: 25.3%
Labour: 9.6%
Others: 8.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Winchester
2010 result:
Conservative: 48.5%
Lib Dem: 43.1%
Labour: 5.5%
Others: 2.9%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Windsor
2010 result:
Conservative: 60.8%
Lib Dem: 22.4%
Labour: 9.9%
Others: 6.8%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Witney
2010 result:
Conservative: 58.8%
Lib Dem: 19.4%
Labour: 13.0%
Others: 8.7%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
David Cameron's seat.
Woking
2010 result:
Conservative: 50.3%
Lib Dem: 37.4%
Labour: 8.0%
Others: 4.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Wokingham
2010 result:
Conservative: 52.7%
Lib Dem: 28.0%
Labour: 10.1%
Others: 9.2%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
East Worthing and Shoreham
2010 result:
Conservative: 48.5%
Lib Dem: 25.5%
Labour: 16.7%
Others: 9.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Worthing West
2010 result:
Conservative: 51.7%
Lib Dem: 27.9%
Labour: 11.8%
Others: 8.6%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Wycombe
2010 result:
Conservative: 48.6%
Lib Dem: 28.8%
Labour: 17.3%
Others: 5.3%
Prediction: Conservative HOLD
Total South East seats:
Conservative: 69 seats (-5)
Labour: 8 seats (+4)
Lib Dem: 3 seats (-1)
UKIP: 2 seats (+2)
Others: 2 seats (NC)
Predicted share of the vote:
Conservative: 41% (-8.3)
Labour: 18% (+1.8%)
Lib Dem: 12% (-14.2%)
UKIP: 20% (+16%)
Others: 9% (+1)
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