Sunday, 1 February 2015

Update: LABOUR AND TORIES TIED: Labour 33%, Conservatives 33%, UKIP 17%, Lib Dem 7%, Greens 7%

Update: Labour and Conservatives tied: Labour 33%, Conservatives 33%, UKIP 17%, Green Party 7%, Liberal Democrats 7%

Labour and the Tories are both tied in this week's polling average-the first time the Tories have been tied with Labour since late November in my polling average. This reflects the polling during the week that saw polls register 3 consecutive Tory leads, although Labour does now appear to have recovered. On this kind of result, on a uniform swing, Labour would be just short of a majority. In practise, due to Scottish seats, the Tories would narrowly be the largest party. If you add 1% to the Labour score, however, Labour would be the largest party. It just shows how we are working with such narrow and tiny margins that anything can happen.

UKIP also seem to be doing well recently, and are now polling at the very respectable level of 17% nationally. A UKIP collapse now looks highly unlikely, unless Cameron can pull off a miracle in the TV debates and win back all of those voters. The trouble, however, is that Mr Cameron expects he will be mauled by Farage in the debates, which will increase UKIP support yet further.

As for Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats, this poll shows them doing as badly as they have ever done, with no sign of recovery in sight. They will, however, be encouraged by an Ashcroft poll showing them on 35% in Lib-Con marginal seats. The Green Party, due to being level pegging once again with the Lib Dems and now being included in the debates, also has reason to be moderately pleased.

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