Tuesday, 17 February 2015

Update: Labour lead at 2: Labour 34%, Conservatives 32%, UKIP 14%, Green Party 6%, Liberal Democrats 7%

The Labour Party retains its 2% lead in this week's polling average. Both major parties remain where they were last week, UKIP take a big hit and are down by 2%, as are the Green Party, who are down by 1%. It remains to be seen whether or not the slight downward trend in UKIP and Green support is a permanent trend that will continue until the election, or whether the two smaller parties manage to maintain their current support levels.

An interesting thing to note from yesterday's Ashcroft national poll, which can be found on this link, is the fact that most voters do not think the Liberal Democrats have had enough influence in this coalition government, and 28% of Conservative supporters also think that. According to YouGov polls, between 15 and 20% of Tory voters want the liberal democrats to be in coalition with the conservatives after the next election. This is good news for the Lib Dems, as it backs up their argument which says that neither the Tories nor Labour can be trusted to run the economy on their own. In fact, polls by ICM and Comres have found that an unprecedented number of people are set to vote tactically at the general election, which traditionally strongly benefits the liberal democrats and moderately benefits the Labour Party.

Either way, Ed Miliband will be happy with this kind of polling. As the clock continues to count down to May, there is still no sign of the predicted conservative recovery, which has baffled most pundits, including myself admittedly. Ed Miliband's chances of becoming PM will ultimately have to rest on Scotland.

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