Sunday, 8 February 2015

Update: Labour lead at 2: Labour 34%, Conservatives 32%, UKIP 16%, Green 7%, Lib Dem 7%

The Labour Party is back in the lead this week, up by 1%, whilst the Conservatives are down 1% and end the week on 32%. UKIP are down by 1%, and the other parties stay where they are. This is likely to be the result of random sample variation in individual polling rather than any fundamental shift toward the Labour Party, as the previous week of polling had the Tories and Labour tied for the first time in several months. Based on this prediction, Labour would end up 38 seats ahead of the Conservatives on 290 seats, with 252 seats for the Tories, 56 for the SNP, 24 Liberal Democrats, 5 UKIP MPs, and 1 Green MP. Mr Miliband would have to put together a deal with the SNP to put together a government, but it would be inconceivable that Mr Cameron could remain in power as prime minister, unless in the unlikely event he managed to negotiate a deal with the SNP as well as the liberal democrats.

The SNP are highly likely to be kingmakers for the next government, after Scottish constituency polls published by Lord Ashcroft this year confirmed that there is a substantial swing in favour of the Nationalists. You would think that this would benefit Labour, as the Nationalists have already rejected any chance of a deal with the Conservatives, but the Liberal Democrats also said the same in 2010......

Overall change has been very minimal since late last year when I started my polling. This poll just confirms that Labour and the Tories appear to be perpetually deadlocked, with both sides routinely changing sides. The election is going to be incredibly close, but Labour appears to have the edge.

No comments:

Post a Comment